比特币（BTC）回调归因于美国国债期限溢价减少和即将到期的期权

比特币 (BTC) 从略低于 100,000 美元的历史高位大幅回调引发了交易员的担忧

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) sharp pullback from its record high just under $100,000 has sparked concern among traders, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note to Benzinga on Friday.

渣打银行 (Standard Chartered) 的杰弗里·肯德里克 (Geoffrey Kendrick) 在周五给 Benzinga 的一份报告中表示，比特币 (CRYPTO: BTC) 从略低于 100,000 美元的历史高位大幅回调引发了交易员的担忧。

Several factors, including a reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium and upcoming options expirations, have contributed to the apex crypto’s correction.

包括美国国债期限溢价的减少和即将到期的期权在内的几个因素导致了顶级加密货币的修正。

Kendrick highlighted the connection between U.S. Treasury term premium movements and the performance of the crypto market.

肯德里克强调了美国国债期限溢价变动与加密货币市场表现之间的联系。

Data from the New York Fed, which tracks term premium, shows a recent decline, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent downturn.

纽约联储追踪期限溢价的数据显示近期有所下降，与比特币近期的低迷相吻合。

“Being viewed often as a hedge against traditional financial ills, lower term premiums reduce the appeal for Bitcoin in this role,” the analyst said.

这位分析师表示：“较低的期限溢价通常被视为对冲传统金融弊病的手段，因此降低了比特币在这一角色上的吸引力。”

Adding to the downward pressure are the substantial monthly options expiries, scheduled for Friday.

定于周五到期的大量月度期权加剧了下行压力。

According to Deribit data, BTC options with strike prices ranging from $85,000 to $100,000 account for over 18,000 BTC in open interest.

根据 Deribit 的数据，执行价格在 85,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间的 BTC 期权占未平仓合约超过 18,000 BTC。

“Historically, options expirations have constrained price movement, with traders positioning themselves around these key levels, creating a magnet effect on spot prices,” Kendrick noted.

肯德里克指出：“从历史上看，期权到期限制了价格走势，交易者围绕这些关键水平进行定位，对现货价格产生磁石效应。”

He predicts a potential drop below $88,700 — the average purchase price for ETFs and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) since the U.S. elections.

他预计价格可能会跌破 88,700 美元——美国大选以来 ETF 和 MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) 的平均购买价格。

This could lead Bitcoin to test its critical support zone between $85,000 and $88,700 before resuming its uptrend.

这可能导致比特币在恢复上升趋势之前测试其 85,000 美元至 88,700 美元之间的关键支撑区域。

Despite the retracement, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust.

尽管出现回调，机构对比特币的兴趣仍然强劲。

Kendrick’s analysis showed that ETFs have recorded inflows of approximately 77,000 BTC since the U.S. elections, while MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 134,000 BTC.

Kendrick 的分析显示，自美国大选以来，ETF 已记录约 77,000 BTC 的流入，而 MicroStrategy 又收购了 134,000 BTC。

However, the analyst noted that the recent institutional buying at an average price of $88,700 could serve as a temporary ceiling until broader market dynamics shift.

然而，分析师指出，最近机构以 88,700 美元的平均价格买入可能会成为暂时的上限，直到更广泛的市场动态发生转变。

Kendrick maintains his year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin and a 2025 projection of $200,000.

Kendrick 维持比特币年底目标为 125,000 美元，2025 年预测为 200,000 美元。

He views the current retracement as a necessary correction, driven by macroeconomic factors and technical market events.

他认为当前的回调是由宏观经济因素和技术市场事件推动的必要调整。

“We are still in a structural bull market,” Kendrick said. “Once these short-term headwinds subside, Bitcoin is well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory.”

“我们仍处于结构性牛市，”肯德里克说。 “一旦这些短期阻力消退，比特币就有能力恢复其上升轨迹。”