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比特币 (BTC) 的价格交易在 65,000 美元左右,因为最大的加密货币的抛售压力不断加大,山寨币受到了猛烈攻击。
Bitcoin price trades around $65,000 as selling pressure mounts for the largest cryptocurrency, which has been impacting altcoins heavily. For altcoins to stop crashing, BTC needs to hold strong.
随着最大的加密货币的抛售压力加大,比特币价格交易在 65,000 美元左右,这对山寨币产生了严重影响。为了让山寨币停止崩溃,比特币需要保持坚挺。
While $65k-$66k seems to be the sweet spot for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, a drop to $60k can be expected in the near future. Even a deeper flush to $50K isn’t out of the picture for Bitcoin, which would only spell trouble for altcoins.
虽然 65,000 美元至 66,000 美元似乎是市值最大的加密货币的最佳点,但预计在不久的将来会跌至 60,000 美元。对于比特币来说,甚至更进一步冲至 5 万美元也不是不可能的,这只会给山寨币带来麻烦。
This lack of enthusiasm and excitement in the market isn’t new either. A correction should be expected after prices rallied to new all-time highs (ATHs) a few months ago. Also, summer tends to see a lull in activity; hence, the adage ‘sell in May and go away.’ This seasonally weaker historical performance tends to go on until October.
市场缺乏热情和兴奋也不是什么新鲜事。几个月前价格上涨至历史新高 (ATH) 后,预计会出现调整。此外,夏季的活动往往会比较平静。因此,有句格言“五月卖出,走开”。这种季节性疲弱的历史表现往往会持续到十月。
As noted by Kaiako research, “Both crypto and traditional financial markets are experiencing the typical summer trading lull. Historically, Q3 has had the lowest volume by a significant margin, with cumulative BTC trade volume over 40% below the highest-volume quarter.”
正如 Kaiako 研究指出的那样,“加密货币和传统金融市场都正在经历典型的夏季交易平静期。从历史上看,第三季度的交易量大幅下降,比特币累计交易量比最高交易量季度低了 40% 以上。”
So, for now, Bitcoin should be expected to stagnate and experience muted volatility. The crypto asset is also gaining maturity with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock’s IBIT overtaking crypto-native Grayscale to become the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF.
因此,就目前而言,比特币应该会停滞不前并经历温和的波动。随着现货比特币 ETF 的推出,以及贝莱德的 IBIT 超越加密原生灰度,成为全球最大的比特币 ETF,加密资产也日趋成熟。
Another reason for the ongoing weakness in the market could be attributed to Bitcoin miners offloading their BTC holdings due to a decline in revenue after the halving event.
市场持续疲软的另一个原因可能是比特币矿商因减半事件后收入下降而抛售比特币。
Miners Driving Bitcoin Sell-Offs?
矿工推动比特币抛售?
The fourth halving, which occurred on April 19, slashed Bitcoin miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per mined block.
第四次减半发生在 4 月 19 日,比特币矿工奖励从每个开采区块的 6.25 BTC 大幅削减至 3.125 BTC。
Besides the rewards getting halved, miner revenues are negatively affected by the declining transaction fees. As of writing, Bitcoin’s average transaction fees have been 24.4 sats/vB or 0.000063 BTC ($4.11), as per Bitinfocharts. Right before and right after the halving, the fees rallied to their almost $128 peak, but since then, they have been going down and keeping below $5. There was a small burst to $83.7 on June 7, but fees are back to previous low levels.
除了奖励减半之外,矿工收入还受到交易费用下降的负面影响。根据 Bitinfocharts,截至撰写本文时,比特币的平均交易费用为 24.4 sats/vB 或 0.000063 BTC(4.11 美元)。在减半之前和之后,费用飙升至近 128 美元的峰值,但自那以后,费用一直在下降并保持在 5 美元以下。 6 月 7 日小幅上涨至 83.7 美元,但费用又回到之前的低水平。
With that, Bitcoin mining profitability is now down at 0.0498 USD/Day for 1 THash/s. In the second half of 2023, profitability remained between $0.05 and $08, only to increase in anticipation of the halving, surging to $0.175 on the very next day. But mining profitability is now making new lows.
这样一来,比特币挖矿盈利能力现已下降至 1 THash/s 的 0.0498 美元/天。 2023 年下半年,盈利能力保持在 0.05 美元至 08 美元之间,只是随着减半的预期而增加,第二天飙升至 0.175 美元。但矿业盈利能力目前正创下新低。
So, it makes sense that with network hashrate at 630.4 Ehash/s keeping around the ATH at 732.289 Th/s hit on May 24 while revenues have fallen substantially, miners are choosing to sell their BTC to fund their daily operations.
因此,随着网络算力保持在 630.4 Ehash/s 左右,ATH 保持在 5 月 24 日达到的 732.289 Th/s 左右,而收入大幅下降,矿工选择出售 BTC 来为其日常运营提供资金,这是有道理的。
Earlier this month, Marathon Digital, the largest U.S.-listed bitcoin miner, reported selling more than 60% of all the BTC it mined since halving. While Riot Platforms didn’t sell any, CleanSpark sold 2.43 BTC.
本月早些时候,美国最大的比特币矿商 Marathon Digital 报告称,自减半以来,其开采的 BTC 已售出 60% 以上。虽然 Riot Platforms 没有出售任何比特币,但 CleanSpark 出售了 2.43 BTC。
However, with BTC mining cost coming in at $83,000, it is expected that the price of bitcoin may not remain under this level for a long time. Data provider CryptoQuant believes sustained low revenues and high hashrate may imply a potential market bottom.
然而,随着BTC挖矿成本达到83,000美元,预计比特币价格可能不会长期维持在该水平以下。数据提供商 CryptoQuant 认为,持续的低收入和高算力可能意味着潜在的市场底部。
JPMorgan analysts also noted that the hashprice, which measures just how much a Bitcoin miner can expect to earn from a particular quantity of hashrate, is currently 15% below the lows seen during the bear market bottom in December 2022. This, the analysts said, is “unsustainable,” and as such, they “expect hashprice to increase in the coming weeks as the network hashrate declines.”
摩根大通分析师还指出,哈希价格(衡量比特币矿工可以从特定数量的哈希率中赚取多少收益)目前比 2022 年 12 月熊市底部期间的低点低 15%。分析师表示,是“不可持续的”,因此,他们“预计随着网络算力的下降,算力价格将在未来几周内上涨”。
A Shift in Mining Sector, Price Action
采矿业的转变,价格走势
Amidst all this, the market cap of 14 US-listed bitcoin miners reached a record $22.8bln after they rallied in the first half of this month, as per JPMorgan analysts.
据摩根大通分析师称,在这一切之中,14 家在美国上市的比特币矿商的市值在本月上半月上涨后达到了创纪录的 228 亿美元。
Core Scientific led the pack with 117% gains. The miner recently rejected a $1.6 bln buying offer from AI cloud provider CoreWeave, with which it had a 12-year, $3.5 billion partnership to host CoreWeave’s AI-related services. Many in the Bitcoin mining world, such as IREN and Hut 8, have been pursuing AI to diversify their businesses. Core Scientific was followed by TeraWulf and IREN, which jumped 80% and 70%, respectively. Argo Blockchain was the only one that fell during this time.
Core Scientific 以 117% 的涨幅领跑。该矿商最近拒绝了 AI 云提供商 CoreWeave 的 16 亿美元收购要约,该矿商与该公司建立了为期 12 年、价值 35 亿美元的合作伙伴关系,以托管 CoreWeave 的 AI 相关服务。比特币挖矿领域的许多公司,例如 IREN 和 Hut 8,一直在寻求人工智能来实现业务多元化。紧随 Core Scientific 之后的是 TeraWulf 和 IREN,分别上涨了 80% 和 70%。 Argo Blockchain 是这段时间唯一下跌的区块链。
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