比特币（BTC）价格可能很快飙升，因为Truflation的实时通货膨胀数据指出了一种反复出现的现象

在2025年3月27日的分析中，标题为“下一个比特币在哪里？

In its March 27 analysis, titled “Where is Bitcoin headed next? A Signal hidden in Real-Time Data,” macroeconomic intelligence firm Truflation claims that each time its inflation index shows a strong downtrend that later pauses or reverses, Bitcoin has a tendency to surge afterward.

宏观经济智能公司Truflation在3月27日的分析中，标题为“下一个比特币在哪里？

The analysis highlights the broader macroeconomic backdrop. It began with the outbreak of COVID-19, which led to central banks slashing interest rates to nearly zero and injecting liquidity into the economy. This period of easy monetary policy coincided with Bitcoin’s ascent to all-time highs in 2021.

该分析突出了更广泛的宏观经济背景。它始于Covid-19的爆发，这导致中央银行将利率削减到近乎零，并将流动性注入经济。这一简单的货币政策时期恰逢比特币在2021年的历史最高点上升。

However, by 2022 and 2023, inflation remained elevated, pushing the US Federal Reserve to adjust its strategy. Its focus shifted to raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet—better known as quantitative tightening—in an effort to control price pressures. The goal, stated by the Federal Reserve, was to bring consumer price inflation down to 2%.

但是，到2022年和2023年，通货膨胀率仍然升高，促使美国美联储调整其战略。它的重点转移到提高利率并降低其资产负债表（称为定量收紧），以控制价格压力。美联储表示的目标是使消费者价格通胀降至2％。

According to Truflation’s report, its own real-time inflation readings reached a low of 2% in June 2023. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, followed a similar pattern about a month and a half later, bottoming out at 3% in July 2023.

根据Truflation的报告，其自己的实时通货膨胀率在2023年6月达到2％。劳动统计局发布的官方消费者价格指数（CPI）随后发生了类似的模式，大约一个半月后，在2023年7月的3％下降了3％。

But from mid-2023 onwards, Truflation’s index did not simply keep dropping in a straight line. Instead, it oscillated between higher and lower bounds, displaying a cyclical pattern of disinflation that would then stabilize or reverse course.

但是从2023年中期开始，Truflation的索引并不简单地直线落下。取而代之的是，它在较高和下限之间振荡，显示了消毒的周期性模式，然后稳定或逆转路线。

According to Truflation, each of these cyclical “inflection points” closely correlates with subsequent upswings in Bitcoin’s price. The report highlights four distinct periods—September 2023, November 2023, September 2024, and December 2024—when its index was trending downward before flattening or rebounding. In each of those cases, Bitcoin’s price went up soon after.

根据Truflation，这些周期性的“拐点”中的每一个都与随后的比特币价格上升密切相关。该报告突出了四个不同的时期，即2023年9月，2023年11月，2024年9月和2024年12月），当时其索引在变平或反弹之前趋于下降。在每种情况下，比特币的价格不久后上涨。

“When Truflation’s disinflation trend pauses or reverses, Bitcoin tends to rally shortly after. This pattern has repeated a few times already — and if history rhymes, it may be unfolding once again soon,” the analysis states.

分析指出：“当Truflation的解散趋势暂停或逆转时，比特币往后不久就会集会。这种模式已经重复了几次，如果历史押韵，它可能很快就会再次展开。”

Breaking down the reason for this occurrence, Truflation says it boils down to Bitcoin’s forward-looking nature and its sensitivity to shifts in liquidity conditions. Strong disinflation usually sparks speculation that the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates and could soon become more accommodative, cutting rates.

分解发生这种情况的原因，Truflation说，这归结为比特币的前瞻性性质及其对流动性转变的敏感性。强烈的解散通常会引发人们的猜测，即美联储可能会提高利率，并且很快可能会变得更加适应性，降低税率。

While a steep and unrelenting disinflation might trigger fears of a recession, a slowdown or pause in that disinflation trend often reassures markets that the economy is not sliding into an economic downturn. This “soft landing” scenario, in turn, tends to foster risk-on sentiment. Traders and investors who anticipate that inflation has been sufficiently subdued to delay any additional tightening—or to accelerate rate cuts—channel their optimism into assets like Bitcoin.

尽管陡峭而毫不留情的解散可能会引发人们对经济衰退的担忧，但这种消灭趋势的放缓或停顿通常会使市场放心，因为经济不会滑入经济衰退。反过来，这种“软着陆”情况往往会促进风险的情绪。预计通货膨胀已经足够柔和的贸易商和投资者延迟了任何额外的收紧或加速降低利率的额外收紧 - 将他们的乐观态度宣传到像比特币这样的资产中。

The report acknowledges that no single piece of data, including Truflation’s own, has an overriding influence on an asset as multifaceted and heavily traded as Bitcoin. However, it highlights that real-time inflation expectations have a broad impact on global markets, also affecting equities, commodities, and foreign exchange trading in addition to cryptocurrencies.

该报告承认，没有包括Trufleation自己的单一数据对资产具有超大影响，因为这些资产是多方面的，并且作为比特币进行了大量交易。但是，它强调，实时通货膨胀预期对全球市场产生了广泛的影响，除了加密货币外，还影响了股票，商品和外汇交易。

Anticipating the shifts in those expectations, some investors may find themselves ahead of the curve when the official CPI reports and central bank pronouncements ultimately confirm or contradict the unfolding trend.

预期这些期望的转变，当CPI官方报告和中央银行的声明最终确认或与不断发展的趋势矛盾时，一些投资者可能会发现自己领先于曲线。

“Truflation doesn’t influence Bitcoin in a vacuum. No single data source ever does. But inflation expectations ripple across a wide range of markets — from equities to commodities — and especially into bond yields and forex.”

“ Truflation不会影响真空中的比特币。从来没有单一的数据源可以。但是，从股票到商品，尤其是债券收益率和外汇的广泛市场的通货膨胀期望涟漪。”