比特幣（BTC）價格可能很快飆升，因為Truflation的實時通貨膨脹數據指出了一種反復出現的現象

在2025年3月27日的分析中，標題為“下一個比特幣在哪裡？

In its March 27 analysis, titled “Where is Bitcoin headed next? A Signal hidden in Real-Time Data,” macroeconomic intelligence firm Truflation claims that each time its inflation index shows a strong downtrend that later pauses or reverses, Bitcoin has a tendency to surge afterward.

宏觀經濟智能公司Truflation在3月27日的分析中，標題為“下一個比特幣在哪裡？

The analysis highlights the broader macroeconomic backdrop. It began with the outbreak of COVID-19, which led to central banks slashing interest rates to nearly zero and injecting liquidity into the economy. This period of easy monetary policy coincided with Bitcoin’s ascent to all-time highs in 2021.

該分析突出了更廣泛的宏觀經濟背景。它始於Covid-19的爆發，這導致中央銀行將利率削減到近乎零，並將流動性注入經濟。這一簡單的貨幣政策時期恰逢比特幣在2021年的歷史最高點上升。

However, by 2022 and 2023, inflation remained elevated, pushing the US Federal Reserve to adjust its strategy. Its focus shifted to raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet—better known as quantitative tightening—in an effort to control price pressures. The goal, stated by the Federal Reserve, was to bring consumer price inflation down to 2%.

但是，到2022年和2023年，通貨膨脹率仍然升高，促使美國美聯儲調整其戰略。它的重點轉移到提高利率並降低其資產負債表（稱為定量收緊），以控制價格壓力。美聯儲表示的目標是使消費者價格通脹降至2％。

According to Truflation’s report, its own real-time inflation readings reached a low of 2% in June 2023. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, followed a similar pattern about a month and a half later, bottoming out at 3% in July 2023.

根據Truflation的報告，其自己的實時通貨膨脹率在2023年6月達到2％。勞動統計局發布的官方消費者價格指數（CPI）隨後發生了類似的模式，大約一個半月後，在2023年7月的3％下降了3％。

But from mid-2023 onwards, Truflation’s index did not simply keep dropping in a straight line. Instead, it oscillated between higher and lower bounds, displaying a cyclical pattern of disinflation that would then stabilize or reverse course.

但是從2023年中期開始，Truflation的索引並不簡單地直線落下。取而代之的是，它在較高和下限之間振盪，顯示了消毒的周期性模式，然後穩定或逆轉路線。

According to Truflation, each of these cyclical “inflection points” closely correlates with subsequent upswings in Bitcoin’s price. The report highlights four distinct periods—September 2023, November 2023, September 2024, and December 2024—when its index was trending downward before flattening or rebounding. In each of those cases, Bitcoin’s price went up soon after.

根據Truflation，這些週期性的“拐點”中的每一個都與隨後的比特幣價格上升密切相關。該報告突出了四個不同的時期，即2023年9月，2023年11月，2024年9月和2024年12月），當時其索引在變平或反彈之前趨於下降。在每種情況下，比特幣的價格不久後上漲。

“When Truflation’s disinflation trend pauses or reverses, Bitcoin tends to rally shortly after. This pattern has repeated a few times already — and if history rhymes, it may be unfolding once again soon,” the analysis states.

分析指出：“當Truflation的解散趨勢暫停或逆轉時，比特幣往後不久就會集會。這種模式已經重複了幾次，如果歷史押韻，它可能很快就會再次展開。”

Breaking down the reason for this occurrence, Truflation says it boils down to Bitcoin’s forward-looking nature and its sensitivity to shifts in liquidity conditions. Strong disinflation usually sparks speculation that the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates and could soon become more accommodative, cutting rates.

分解發生這種情況的原因，Truflation說，這歸結為比特幣的前瞻性性質及其對流動性轉變的敏感性。強烈的解散通常會引發人們的猜測，即美聯儲可能會提高利率，並且很快可能會變得更加適應性，降低稅率。

While a steep and unrelenting disinflation might trigger fears of a recession, a slowdown or pause in that disinflation trend often reassures markets that the economy is not sliding into an economic downturn. This “soft landing” scenario, in turn, tends to foster risk-on sentiment. Traders and investors who anticipate that inflation has been sufficiently subdued to delay any additional tightening—or to accelerate rate cuts—channel their optimism into assets like Bitcoin.

儘管陡峭而毫不留情的解散可能會引發人們對經濟衰退的擔憂，但這種消滅趨勢的放緩或停頓通常會使市場放心，因為經濟不會滑入經濟衰退。反過來，這種“軟著陸”情況往往會促進風險的情緒。預計通貨膨脹已經足夠柔和的貿易商和投資者延遲了任何額外的收緊或加速降低利率的額外收緊 - 將他們的樂觀態度宣傳到像比特幣這樣的資產中。

The report acknowledges that no single piece of data, including Truflation’s own, has an overriding influence on an asset as multifaceted and heavily traded as Bitcoin. However, it highlights that real-time inflation expectations have a broad impact on global markets, also affecting equities, commodities, and foreign exchange trading in addition to cryptocurrencies.

該報告承認，沒有包括Trufleation自己的單一數據對資產具有超大影響，因為這些資產是多方面的，並且作為比特幣進行了大量交易。但是，它強調，實時通貨膨脹預期對全球市場產生了廣泛的影響，除了加密貨幣外，還影響了股票，商品和外匯交易。

Anticipating the shifts in those expectations, some investors may find themselves ahead of the curve when the official CPI reports and central bank pronouncements ultimately confirm or contradict the unfolding trend.

預期這些期望的轉變，當CPI官方報告和中央銀行的聲明最終確認或與不斷發展的趨勢矛盾時，一些投資者可能會發現自己領先於曲線。

“Truflation doesn’t influence Bitcoin in a vacuum. No single data source ever does. But inflation expectations ripple across a wide range of markets — from equities to commodities — and especially into bond yields and forex.”

“ Truflation不會影響真空中的比特幣。從來沒有單一的數據源可以。但是，從股票到商品，尤其是債券收益率和外彙的廣泛市場的通貨膨脹期望漣漪。”