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资深技术分析师 Peter Brandt 最近表示,从长期价值储存的角度来看,比特币的表现继续优于黄金。
Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin continues to outshine gold in the long-term narrative of a store-of-value asset.
资深技术分析师 Peter Brandt 表示,从长期价值存储资产的角度来看,比特币继续超越黄金。
His latest analysis of the BTC/GLD ratio reveals this. According to the market veteran, the premier crypto asset has been steadily outperforming gold and could be poised for a monumental rally if it manages to surmount key resistance levels.
他对 BTC/GLD 比率的最新分析揭示了这一点。这位市场资深人士表示,这种主要的加密资产的表现一直稳步优于黄金,如果它能够突破关键阻力位,则可能会出现巨大的反弹。
Bitcoin vs Gold Chart Analysis by Peter Brandt: Key Highlights
Peter Brandt 的比特币与黄金图表分析:主要亮点
In his chart, Brandt showcases a long-term uptrend in the BTC/GLD ratio, highlighting Bitcoin’s increasing strength relative to gold over the past few years. The ratio previously found support in the high teens, specifically around the 14 oz mark, which acted as a springboard for the current rally.
Brandt 在他的图表中展示了 BTC/GLD 比率的长期上升趋势,凸显了过去几年比特币相对于黄金的实力不断增强。该比率之前在高位找到支撑,特别是在 14 盎司大关附近,这是当前反弹的跳板。
Brandt identifies a crucial resistance level at 32 oz of gold. This level has previously capped Bitcoin’s strength, presenting a major zone of conflict between bulls and bears.
Brandt 确定了 32 盎司黄金的关键阻力位。这一水平此前限制了比特币的强度,成为多头和空头之间的主要冲突区域。
If Bitcoin manages to break through this resistance, Brandt anticipates a target of over 100 oz of gold per Bitcoin, with a long-term projection reaching as high as 123.75 oz. Considering current gold prices (around $2,613 per ounce), this translates to a Bitcoin price target of $323,358.
如果比特币能够突破这一阻力,Brandt 预计每比特币黄金的目标将超过 100 盎司,长期预测将高达 123.75 盎司。考虑到当前的黄金价格(每盎司约 2,613 美元),这意味着比特币的目标价格为 323,358 美元。
Moreover, the chart demonstrates that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a pattern of rising wedges and breakout formations. Notably, BTC has seen an uptrend since bottoming out in 2018. The current setup is forming another ascending triangle, which is a bullish chart pattern.
此外,该图表表明,比特币的价格走势遵循上升楔形和突破形态的模式。值得注意的是,BTC 自 2018 年触底以来一直呈上升趋势。目前的格局正在形成另一个上升三角形,这是一个看涨的图表模式。
Interestingly, Bitcoin has shown similar parabolic runs in the past, and if it can maintain its current upward trajectory, there is a high probability of reaching Brandt’s target.
有趣的是,比特币过去也曾表现出类似的抛物线运行,如果能够维持目前的上涨轨迹,那么很有可能达到布兰特的目标。
Meanwhile, the market veteran gauges a 30% chance of the market “rolling over,” as Bitcoin’s dominance might falter. However, the Bayesian analysis still gives a strong possibility of Bitcoin outpacing gold if the resistance is breached.
与此同时,这位市场资深人士预计,由于比特币的主导地位可能会动摇,市场“翻转”的可能性为 30%。然而,贝叶斯分析仍然表明,如果突破阻力位,比特币超越黄金的可能性很大。
BTC/GLD Short-Term Outlook: Immediate Caution Advised
BTC/GLD短期展望:建议立即谨慎
On the shorter timeframe, the BTCGLD outlook suggests immediate caution. Notably, BTC is currently trading below the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 25.59 oz per BTC, as it currently changes hands around 23.27 oz.
在较短的时间范围内,BTCGLD 的前景表明应立即保持谨慎。值得注意的是,BTC 目前的交易价格低于每 BTC 25.59 盎司的 21 周简单移动平均线 (SMA),因为目前其易手量约为 23.27 盎司。
Bitcoin’s failure to break above this moving average shows possible short-term weakness. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.49, indicating a neutral-to-bearish sentiment.
比特币未能突破该移动平均线表明短期可能疲软。此外,相对强弱指数(RSI)为 45.49,表明中性至看跌情绪。
The RSI has seen a downward slope over the past few weeks, adding to concerns about Bitcoin’s immediate potential to reclaim bullish momentum. To initiate a sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to break back above the 21-week SMA and push the RSI into bullish territory.
过去几周,相对强弱指数呈下降趋势,加剧了人们对比特币立即恢复看涨势头的潜力的担忧。为了启动持续反弹,比特币需要突破 21 周移动平均线并将 RSI 推入看涨区域。
The 21-week SMA has consistently acted as a key pivot for Bitcoin. The last major breakout above this moving average occurred in October 2023, when Bitcoin traded at around 16 oz per BTC.
21 周移动平均线一直是比特币的关键支点。上一次突破该移动平均线的重大突破发生在 2023 年 10 月,当时比特币的交易价格约为每 16 盎司。
This breakout sparked a powerful 112% surge, driving Bitcoin to a peak of 34 oz in March 2024. If Bitcoin can regain this level of momentum and surmount the 25.59 oz mark, it could lead to a renewed upward trend, possibly targeting Brandt’s projection.
这次突破引发了 112% 的强劲飙升,推动比特币在 2024 年 3 月达到 34 盎司的峰值。如果比特币能够重获这一势头并突破 25.59 盎司大关,可能会导致新的上涨趋势,可能会达到布兰特的预测。
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