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資深技術分析師 Peter Brandt 最近表示,從長期價值儲存的角度來看,比特幣的表現持續優於黃金。
Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin continues to outshine gold in the long-term narrative of a store-of-value asset.
資深技術分析師 Peter Brandt 表示,從長期價值儲存資產的角度來看,比特幣持續超越黃金。
His latest analysis of the BTC/GLD ratio reveals this. According to the market veteran, the premier crypto asset has been steadily outperforming gold and could be poised for a monumental rally if it manages to surmount key resistance levels.
他對 BTC/GLD 比率的最新分析揭示了這一點。這位市場資深人士表示,這種主要的加密資產的表現一直穩步優於黃金,如果它能夠突破關鍵阻力位,則可能會出現巨大的反彈。
Bitcoin vs Gold Chart Analysis by Peter Brandt: Key Highlights
Peter Brandt 的比特幣與黃金圖表分析:主要亮點
In his chart, Brandt showcases a long-term uptrend in the BTC/GLD ratio, highlighting Bitcoin’s increasing strength relative to gold over the past few years. The ratio previously found support in the high teens, specifically around the 14 oz mark, which acted as a springboard for the current rally.
Brandt 在他的圖表中展示了 BTC/GLD 比率的長期上升趨勢,凸顯了過去幾年比特幣相對於黃金的實力不斷增強。該比率之前在高位找到支撐,特別是在 14 盎司大關附近,這是當前反彈的跳板。
Brandt identifies a crucial resistance level at 32 oz of gold. This level has previously capped Bitcoin’s strength, presenting a major zone of conflict between bulls and bears.
Brandt 確定了 32 盎司黃金的關鍵阻力位。這一水平先前限制了比特幣的強度,成為多頭和空頭之間的主要衝突區域。
If Bitcoin manages to break through this resistance, Brandt anticipates a target of over 100 oz of gold per Bitcoin, with a long-term projection reaching as high as 123.75 oz. Considering current gold prices (around $2,613 per ounce), this translates to a Bitcoin price target of $323,358.
如果比特幣能夠突破這一阻力,Brandt 預計每比特幣黃金的目標將超過 100 盎司,長期預測將高達 123.75 盎司。考慮到目前的黃金價格(每盎司約 2,613 美元),這意味著比特幣的目標價為 323,358 美元。
Moreover, the chart demonstrates that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a pattern of rising wedges and breakout formations. Notably, BTC has seen an uptrend since bottoming out in 2018. The current setup is forming another ascending triangle, which is a bullish chart pattern.
此外,該圖表表明,比特幣的價格走勢遵循上升楔形和突破形態的模式。值得注意的是,BTC 自 2018 年觸底以來一直呈現上升趨勢。
Interestingly, Bitcoin has shown similar parabolic runs in the past, and if it can maintain its current upward trajectory, there is a high probability of reaching Brandt’s target.
有趣的是,比特幣過去也曾表現出類似的拋物線運行,如果能夠維持目前的上漲軌跡,那麼就很有可能達到布蘭特的目標。
Meanwhile, the market veteran gauges a 30% chance of the market “rolling over,” as Bitcoin’s dominance might falter. However, the Bayesian analysis still gives a strong possibility of Bitcoin outpacing gold if the resistance is breached.
同時,這位市場資深人士預計,由於比特幣的主導地位可能會動搖,市場「翻轉」的可能性為 30%。然而,貝葉斯分析仍然表明,如果突破阻力位,比特幣超越黃金的可能性很高。
BTC/GLD Short-Term Outlook: Immediate Caution Advised
BTC/GLD短期展望:建議立即謹慎
On the shorter timeframe, the BTCGLD outlook suggests immediate caution. Notably, BTC is currently trading below the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 25.59 oz per BTC, as it currently changes hands around 23.27 oz.
在較短的時間範圍內,BTCGLD 的前景表明應立即保持謹慎。值得注意的是,BTC 目前的交易價格低於每 BTC 25.59 盎司的 21 週簡單移動平均線 (SMA),因為目前其易手量約為 23.27 盎司。
Bitcoin’s failure to break above this moving average shows possible short-term weakness. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.49, indicating a neutral-to-bearish sentiment.
比特幣未能突破該移動平均線表明短期可能疲軟。此外,相對強弱指數(RSI)為 45.49,表示中性至看跌情緒。
The RSI has seen a downward slope over the past few weeks, adding to concerns about Bitcoin’s immediate potential to reclaim bullish momentum. To initiate a sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to break back above the 21-week SMA and push the RSI into bullish territory.
過去幾週,相對強弱指數呈下降趨勢,加劇了人們對比特幣立即恢復看漲勢頭的潛力的擔憂。為了啟動持續反彈,比特幣需要突破 21 週移動平均線並將 RSI 推入看漲區域。
The 21-week SMA has consistently acted as a key pivot for Bitcoin. The last major breakout above this moving average occurred in October 2023, when Bitcoin traded at around 16 oz per BTC.
21 週移動平均線一直是比特幣的關鍵支點。上一次突破該移動平均線的重大突破發生在 2023 年 10 月,當時比特幣的交易價格約為每 16 盎司。
This breakout sparked a powerful 112% surge, driving Bitcoin to a peak of 34 oz in March 2024. If Bitcoin can regain this level of momentum and surmount the 25.59 oz mark, it could lead to a renewed upward trend, possibly targeting Brandt’s projection.
這次突破引發了112% 的強勁飆升,推動比特幣在2024 年3 月達到34 盎司的峰值。會達到布蘭特的預報。
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