比特币（BTC）的价格似乎摇摇欲坠，但加密分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）说，前景仍然是看好的

比特币最近的市场行动似乎摇摇欲坠，但是根据加密分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的说法，这都是大局的一部分，而且前景仍然是看好的。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there’s no need to panic just yet about Bitcoin’s recent market action, as it’s all part of the bigger picture and the outlook is still bullish.

加密分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）表示，目前尚不需要对比特币最近的市场行动感到恐慌，因为这都是大局的一部分，而且前景仍然是看好的。

As the second quarter of 2025 kicks off, Bitcoin has seen a slight cool-down after its impressive earlier this year. With global tensions, interest rate concerns, and trade decisions still on investors’ minds, the flagship cryptocurrency is now moving in a tight range between $83,000 and $85,000.

随着2025年第二季度的开始，比特币在今年早些时候令人印象深刻的情况下略有凉爽。由于全球紧张局势，利率问题和贸易决策仍在投资者的脑海中，旗舰加密货币现在正处于83,000美元至85,000美元之间的紧张范围内。

However, despite this consolidation phase, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there’s no need to panic just yet. As he closely tracks Bitcoin cycles, he says the most important level to watch is the 2024 high.

然而，尽管这个合并阶段，加密分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）表示，目前尚无恐慌。当他密切追踪比特币周期时，他说最重要的水平是2024年。

As long as Bitcoin stays above that point—even with brief dips or “wicks” below—he believes the current uptrend remains intact. A drop to the low $60,000s could still trigger a strong bounce, possibly pushing the price even higher than where it is now.

只要比特币保持在这一点之上（即使在下面的短暂下降或“灯芯”）上方，他相信当前的上升趋势仍然完好无损。下降到60,000美元的低点仍然可能引发强烈的反弹，可能会使价格甚至比现在的价格高。

“If we do get a break of the 2024 highs, then I think that would be a bit problematic. But if we don’t break the 2024 highs, then I think we could even drop to the low $60,000s and still get a very strong bounce off of that area,” Cowen said in a recent video.

Cowen在最近的一段视频中说：“如果我们确实会突破2024高点，那么我认为这会有点问题。但是，如果我们不打破2024年的高点，那么我认为我们甚至可以跌至60,000美元的低价，并且仍然在该地区越来越强烈。”

He also noted that Bitcoin’s growth in this cycle is following a familiar pattern of diminishing returns compared to previous cycles. But that doesn’t necessarily mean gains are over yet.

他还指出，与以前的周期相比，比特币在这个周期中的增长遵循熟悉的回报率降低模式。但这并不一定意味着收益已经结束。

In a best-case scenario, Cowen sees Bitcoin climbing to between $120,000 and $150,000, and maybe even as high as $200,000 if major events—like institutional or government buying—kick in. From there, he thinks it could continue tracking sideways in a broad range.

在最佳情况下，Cowen看到比特币攀升至120,000至150,000美元之间，甚至可能高达200,000美元，如果重大事件（例如机构或政府购买）踢了。从那里开始，他认为它可以继续在广泛的范围内跟踪侧面。

The real concern, Cowen says, would be if Bitcoin falls and fails to hold the 2024 high, setting up what’s known as a “left translated cycle.” That would indicate that the peak of this cycle has already passed. But for now, that scenario hasn’t played out.

考宁说，真正关心的是，如果比特币跌倒并且未能保持2024年高，建立了所谓的“左翻译周期”。这表明该周期的峰值已经过去。但是就目前而言，这种情况还没有播放。

“If we break the 2024 highs, then I think that would be the beginning of a new cycle, and it would be a cycle that has already peaked. And if we were to do that, then I think we’d be setting up for potentially dropping to the $40,000s or even the high $30,000s from here,” Cowen said.

Cowen说：“如果我们打破2024高点，那么我认为这将是一个新循环的开始，这将是一个已经达到顶峰的周期。

Looking back at the 2016–2017 cycle, Cowen noted that Bitcoin also briefly dipped below key highs before taking off again. This kind of short-term volatility, he said, doesn’t necessarily break long-term market structure—unless it turns into sustained downward pressure.

回顾2016 - 2017年的周期，Cowen指出，比特币在重新起飞之前也短暂地下降到关键高点以下。他说，这种短期波动不一定会破坏长期的市场结构，除非它变成了持续的向下压力。