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美联储决定降息50个基点,令不少投资者感到意外。此后,我们立即看到金价触及新高
The US FED decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points surprised many investors. Gold immediately reached new all-time highs as investors interpreted the rate cut as a sign of future inflation and dollar depreciation. The S&P 500 indexes also hit new all-time highs after the US FED decision, but interestingly, Bitcoin didn’t reach it.
美联储降息50个基点的决定令许多投资者感到意外。由于投资者将降息解读为未来通胀和美元贬值的迹象,金价立即创下历史新高。在美联储做出决定后,标准普尔 500 指数也创下了历史新高,但有趣的是,比特币并没有达到这一水平。
Similarly, China followed suit, promising even more liquidity for the market, with many expecting a historically favorable Q4 for Bitcoin.
同样,中国也紧随其后,承诺为市场提供更多流动性,许多人预计第四季度对比特币将出现历史性的有利走势。
There are several reasons why this dynamic may not be as fast, ranging from the potential influence of institutional investors to the time needed for liquidity to reach the market and retail investors too.
这种动态可能不会那么快的原因有很多,从机构投资者的潜在影响到流动性到达市场和散户投资者所需的时间。
Bitcoin’s Dynamics and Correlation with the Rest of the Market
比特币的动态以及与市场其他部分的相关性
It has been steadily declining since March 2024 and is about 15% below its previous and historical high.
自 2024 年 3 月以来一直在稳步下降,比之前的历史高点低约 15%。
This is a bit odd since usually when the S&P 500 index, and especially when gold does, Bitcoin also shows a rise. This was partly true, but in the context of lower rates, the correlation was not as strong as some expected.
这有点奇怪,因为通常当标准普尔 500 指数,尤其是黄金上涨时,比特币也会显示上涨。这在一定程度上是正确的,但在利率较低的背景下,相关性并不像一些人预期的那么强。
We are seeing the S&P 500 rise, while Bitcoin is declining and this is not the first time we have seen this kind of divergence between the market and Bitcoin. We have seen this many times over the last five years and sometimes Bitcoin catches up to the S&P 500 and sometimes the S&P 500 declines approaching Bitcoin price levels.
我们看到标准普尔 500 指数上涨,而比特币却在下跌,这并不是我们第一次看到市场和比特币之间的这种背离。在过去的五年里,我们已经多次看到这种情况,有时比特币会赶上标准普尔 500 指数,有时标准普尔 500 指数会下跌到接近比特币价格水平。
This is why Bitcoin’s important dynamics need to be looked at beyond Q4, and to do that we need to look at one of the most important factors influencing the financial markets.
这就是为什么需要在第四季度之后关注比特币的重要动态,为此,我们需要关注影响金融市场的最重要因素之一。
The US Dollar Index which shows the strength of the US Dollar against other major world currencies, has a big impact on the financial markets, and here’s what the US Dollar Index looks like lately.
美元指数显示了美元兑其他主要世界货币的强势,对金融市场有很大影响,以下是美元指数最近的情况。
Notice all the times it has declined significantly look at what has happened with bitcoin. In all of these cases, it has shown a sharp rise in price during and after these declines in the dollar index, and this is no accident.
请注意,比特币每次都大幅下跌,看看比特币发生了什么。在所有这些情况下,美元指数下跌期间和之后价格均出现大幅上涨,这并非偶然。
A weak US dollar directly increases external demand for bitcoin, let’s say bitcoin is worth $60K on all major cryptocurrency exchanges, but suddenly the US dollar weakens by 5% against the Indian rupee.
美元疲软直接增加了外部对比特币的需求,假设比特币在所有主要加密货币交易所价值 6 万美元,但美元兑印度卢比突然贬值 5%。
This means that the same $60K bitcoin on the cryptocurrency exchanges becomes 5% cheaper for Indian investors, and this could lead to a significant number of Indian investors investing in Bitcoin which could potentially cause the price to skyrocket.
这意味着加密货币交易所上同样价值 6 万美元的比特币对于印度投资者来说便宜了 5%,这可能会导致大量印度投资者投资比特币,从而可能导致价格飙升。
When the US dollar index falls this is not just against the Indian rupee but against all major currencies in the world and so when the US dollar weakens bitcoin becomes cheaper for the rest of the world, creating an increase in foreign investment in bitcoin.
当美元指数下跌时,不仅兑印度卢比下跌,而且兑全球所有主要货币下跌,因此当美元走弱时,比特币对世界其他地区来说变得更便宜,从而导致外国对比特币的投资增加。
So, recently we have noticed a slight weakening of the US dollar and if we overlay US interest rates on it we can see that now the US dollar is directly dependent on the level of interest rates which are experiencing a down cycle after the US Fed decision.
因此,最近我们注意到美元略有疲软,如果我们将美国利率叠加在其上,我们可以看到,现在美元直接取决于利率水平,而利率水平在美联储决定后正在经历下行周期。
If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates as they have stated they will likely lead to further weakening of the US dollar. However, despite the current weakening of the dollar bitcoin continues to bounce between $60K and $65K.
如果美联储继续按照其声明降息,可能会导致美元进一步走弱。然而,尽管目前美元疲软,比特币仍继续在 6 万美元至 6.5 万美元之间反弹。
The Bitcoin price model shows that over the last six months, its price should have increased by about 100%, but in fact, it did not happen.
比特币价格模型显示,在过去六个月中,其价格应该上涨约 100%,但事实上,它并没有发生。
This price model is based on the US Ador and the S&P 500 index and gives us an idea of where Bitcoin should be right now this model shows that Bitcoin is undervalued 50%
这个价格模型基于美国 Ador 和 S&P 500 指数,让我们了解比特币现在应该在哪里。这个模型显示比特币被低估了 50%
This is not the first time that Bitcoin is undervalued according to this model and guess when it has been in the past this has already happened in January last year in September 2020 and in January 2019.
这并不是比特币第一次根据这个模型被低估,猜猜过去的时候就已经发生过这种情况,去年1月、2020年9月和2019年1月就已经发生过。
Perhaps the prolonged stagnation will continue, or there will be some volatility in the coming time, but in general, there are no critical indicators that say Bitcoin is definitely going to fall instead of the bullish rally we are all waiting for.
也许长期的停滞会持续下去,或者未来会出现一些波动,但总的来说,没有关键指标表明比特币肯定会下跌,而不是我们都在等待的看涨反弹。
Why Should We Be Careful About Expecting a Bullish Rally?
为什么我们应该谨慎预期看涨反弹?
Despite the reasonable optimism about Bitcoin, and the hope for the effect of China’s upcoming money printing, as well as the U.S., we should realize that it will likely take longer.
尽管人们对比特币抱有合理的乐观态度,并且对中国和美国即将印钞的效果抱有希望,但我们应该意识到这可能需要更长的时间。
Let’s take a cold-blooded look at this point, namely that the cryptocurrency market could potentially be heavily influenced by institutional investors, so following the crowd can be risky.
让我们冷静地看待这一点,即加密货币市场可能会受到机构投资者的严重影响,因此跟随大众可能存在风险。
After all, when everyone expects one thing, investment funds can do the opposite, and that is the key argument of counter-investors, which may now apply to the crypto market as well. So while many are saying that the fourth quarter will be highly bullish we should exercise a bit of caution first we need to talk about the main reason why everyone is so built on the fourth quarter.
毕竟,当每个人都期望一件事时,投资基金可以做相反的事情,这是反投资者的关键论点,现在可能也适用于加密货币市场。因此,虽然许多人都说第四季度将非常乐观,但我们首先应该谨慎行事,但我们需要谈谈每个人都如此看好第四季度的主要原因。
China is printing
中国正在印刷
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