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聯準會決定降息50個基點,令不少投資人感到意外。此後,我們立即看到金價觸及新高
The US FED decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points surprised many investors. Gold immediately reached new all-time highs as investors interpreted the rate cut as a sign of future inflation and dollar depreciation. The S&P 500 indexes also hit new all-time highs after the US FED decision, but interestingly, Bitcoin didn’t reach it.
聯準會降息50個基點的決定令許多投資者感到意外。由於投資者將降息解讀為未來通膨和美元貶值的跡象,金價立即創下歷史新高。在聯準會做出決定後,標準普爾 500 指數也創下了歷史新高,但有趣的是,比特幣並沒有達到這一水平。
Similarly, China followed suit, promising even more liquidity for the market, with many expecting a historically favorable Q4 for Bitcoin.
同樣,中國也緊隨其後,承諾為市場提供更多流動性,許多人預計第四季對比特幣將出現歷史性的有利走勢。
There are several reasons why this dynamic may not be as fast, ranging from the potential influence of institutional investors to the time needed for liquidity to reach the market and retail investors too.
這種動態可能不會那麼快的原因有很多,從機構投資者的潛在影響到流動性到達市場和散戶投資者所需的時間。
Bitcoin’s Dynamics and Correlation with the Rest of the Market
比特幣的動態以及與市場其他部分的相關性
It has been steadily declining since March 2024 and is about 15% below its previous and historical high.
自 2024 年 3 月以來一直在穩步下降,比之前的歷史高點低約 15%。
This is a bit odd since usually when the S&P 500 index, and especially when gold does, Bitcoin also shows a rise. This was partly true, but in the context of lower rates, the correlation was not as strong as some expected.
這有點奇怪,因為通常當標準普爾 500 指數,尤其是黃金上漲時,比特幣也會顯示上漲。這在某種程度上是正確的,但在利率較低的背景下,相關性並不像一些人預期的那麼強。
We are seeing the S&P 500 rise, while Bitcoin is declining and this is not the first time we have seen this kind of divergence between the market and Bitcoin. We have seen this many times over the last five years and sometimes Bitcoin catches up to the S&P 500 and sometimes the S&P 500 declines approaching Bitcoin price levels.
我們看到標準普爾 500 指數上漲,而比特幣卻在下跌,這並不是我們第一次看到市場和比特幣之間的這種背離。在過去的五年裡,我們已經多次看到這種情況,有時比特幣會趕上標準普爾 500 指數,有時標準普爾 500 指數會下跌到接近比特幣價格水平。
This is why Bitcoin’s important dynamics need to be looked at beyond Q4, and to do that we need to look at one of the most important factors influencing the financial markets.
這就是為什麼需要在第四季之後關注比特幣的重要動態,為此,我們需要關注影響金融市場的最重要因素之一。
The US Dollar Index which shows the strength of the US Dollar against other major world currencies, has a big impact on the financial markets, and here’s what the US Dollar Index looks like lately.
美元指數顯示美元兌其他世界主要貨幣的強弱,對金融市場有很大影響,以下是美元指數最近的情況。
Notice all the times it has declined significantly look at what has happened with bitcoin. In all of these cases, it has shown a sharp rise in price during and after these declines in the dollar index, and this is no accident.
請注意,比特幣每次都大幅下跌,看看比特幣發生了什麼。在所有這些情況下,美元指數下跌期間和之後價格均大幅上漲,這並非偶然。
A weak US dollar directly increases external demand for bitcoin, let’s say bitcoin is worth $60K on all major cryptocurrency exchanges, but suddenly the US dollar weakens by 5% against the Indian rupee.
美元疲軟直接增加了外部對比特幣的需求,假設比特幣在所有主要加密貨幣交易所價值 6 萬美元,但美元兌印度盧比突然貶值 5%。
This means that the same $60K bitcoin on the cryptocurrency exchanges becomes 5% cheaper for Indian investors, and this could lead to a significant number of Indian investors investing in Bitcoin which could potentially cause the price to skyrocket.
這意味著加密貨幣交易所上同樣價值 6 萬美元的比特幣對印度投資者來說便宜了 5%,這可能會導致大量印度投資者投資比特幣,這可能會導致價格飆升。
When the US dollar index falls this is not just against the Indian rupee but against all major currencies in the world and so when the US dollar weakens bitcoin becomes cheaper for the rest of the world, creating an increase in foreign investment in bitcoin.
當美元指數下跌時,不僅兌印度盧比下跌,而且兌全球所有主要貨幣下跌,因此當美元走弱時,比特幣對世界其他地區變得更便宜,導致外國對比特幣的投資增加。
So, recently we have noticed a slight weakening of the US dollar and if we overlay US interest rates on it we can see that now the US dollar is directly dependent on the level of interest rates which are experiencing a down cycle after the US Fed decision.
因此,最近我們注意到美元略有疲軟,如果我們將美國利率疊加在其上,我們可以看到,現在美元直接取決於利率水平,而利率水平在美聯儲決定後正在經歷下行週期。
If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates as they have stated they will likely lead to further weakening of the US dollar. However, despite the current weakening of the dollar bitcoin continues to bounce between $60K and $65K.
如果聯準會繼續按照其聲明降息,可能會導緻美元進一步走弱。然而,儘管目前美元疲軟,比特幣仍繼續在 6 萬美元至 6.5 萬美元之間反彈。
The Bitcoin price model shows that over the last six months, its price should have increased by about 100%, but in fact, it did not happen.
比特幣價格模型顯示,在過去六個月中,其價格應該會上漲約 100%,但事實上,它並沒有發生。
This price model is based on the US Ador and the S&P 500 index and gives us an idea of where Bitcoin should be right now this model shows that Bitcoin is undervalued 50%
這個價格模型基於美國 Ador 和 S&P 500 指數,讓我們了解比特幣現在應該在哪裡。
This is not the first time that Bitcoin is undervalued according to this model and guess when it has been in the past this has already happened in January last year in September 2020 and in January 2019.
這並不是比特幣第一次根據這個模型被低估,猜猜過去的時候就已經發生過這種情況,去年1月、2020年9月和2019年1月就已經發生過。
Perhaps the prolonged stagnation will continue, or there will be some volatility in the coming time, but in general, there are no critical indicators that say Bitcoin is definitely going to fall instead of the bullish rally we are all waiting for.
也許長期的停滯會持續下去,或者未來會出現一些波動,但總的來說,沒有關鍵指標表明比特幣肯定會下跌,而不是我們都在等待的看漲反彈。
Why Should We Be Careful About Expecting a Bullish Rally?
為什麼我們應該謹慎預期看漲反彈?
Despite the reasonable optimism about Bitcoin, and the hope for the effect of China’s upcoming money printing, as well as the U.S., we should realize that it will likely take longer.
儘管人們對比特幣抱持合理的樂觀態度,並且對中國和美國即將印鈔的效果抱有希望,但我們應該意識到這可能需要更長的時間。
Let’s take a cold-blooded look at this point, namely that the cryptocurrency market could potentially be heavily influenced by institutional investors, so following the crowd can be risky.
讓我們冷靜地看待這一點,即加密貨幣市場可能會受到機構投資者的嚴重影響,因此跟隨大眾可能存在風險。
After all, when everyone expects one thing, investment funds can do the opposite, and that is the key argument of counter-investors, which may now apply to the crypto market as well. So while many are saying that the fourth quarter will be highly bullish we should exercise a bit of caution first we need to talk about the main reason why everyone is so built on the fourth quarter.
畢竟,當每個人都期望一件事時,投資基金可以做相反的事情,這是反投資者的關鍵論點,現在也可能適用於加密貨幣市場。因此,儘管許多人都說第四季將非常樂觀,但我們首先應該謹慎行事,但我們需要談談每個人都如此看好第四季的主要原因。
China is printing
中國正在印刷
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