比特币 (BTC) 价格回到 101.5K 美元，本周以高价收盘。尽管出现反弹，但社交媒体上的买单出人意料地平静，表明交易员情绪谨慎。对于那些试图把握交易时机的人来说，过去的趋势和市场周期可以为何时买入（恐慌期间）和何时卖出（贪婪期间）提供有价值的见解。

在加密货币周结束时回到 101,500 美元。社交媒体上的购买订单正在受到关注。在比特币的下一个大动作之前，这张图表对于何时买入（当人群恐慌时）和何时卖出（当人群变得贪婪时）非常有帮助。 👇https://t.co/Ub7Cb7UyqA pic.twitter.com/WmaF2YFi8Z

As Bitcoin price nears the $100,000 mark once again, crypto market participants are keeping a close eye on the next major swing in sight. While some anticipate the next market top, others believe the peak has already passed.

随着比特币价格再次接近 10 万美元大关，加密货币市场参与者正在密切关注即将到来的下一个重大波动。虽然一些人预计下一个市场顶部将会到来，但另一些人则认为高峰已经过去。

In a recent tweet, Ali highlighted three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's next market top. Based on the price patterns of the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the next peak could hit in October 2025. However, if Bitcoin follows the trajectory of its 2011 cycle, the market top may already be in. This scenario is determined by the varying slopes of Bitcoin's price rallies, which differ across each cycle.

在最近的一条推文中，阿里强调了比特币下一个市场顶部的三种可能情况。根据 2015 年和 2018 年周期的价格模式，下一个峰值可能会在 2025 年 10 月达到。然而，如果比特币遵循 2011 年周期的轨迹，市场顶部可能已经到来。这种情况是由不同的斜率决定的。比特币的价格上涨，每个周期都有所不同。

If #Bitcoin follows the patterns of the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the next market top could hit in October 2025. But if $BTC mirrors the 2011 cycle, the market top is already in!

如果#Bitcoin 遵循 2015 年和 2018 年周期的模式，那么下一个市场顶部可能会在 2025 年 10 月触及。但如果 $BTC 遵循 2011 年周期，那么市场顶部已经到来！

pic.twitter.com/YSEzKKf95T

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 13, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 13 日

This analysis aligns with the recent discussion among crypto analysts regarding the possibility of Bitcoin's next halving event occurring in April 2024. If this timing proves accurate and Bitcoin price continues to follow its historical cycles, we might expect to see a new market top around H2 2025.

这一分析与加密货币分析师最近关于比特币下一次减半事件发生在 2024 年 4 月的可能性的讨论相一致。如果这个时间被证明是准确的并且比特币价格继续遵循其历史周期，我们可能预计会在 2025 年下半年左右看到新的市场顶部。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are making headlines with their significant sell-offs. According to Ali's analysis, Bitcoin miners have sold over 140,000 BTC, amounting to a staggering $13.72 billion so far in December. Such large-scale miner sell-offs are known to influence short-term price movements and contribute to the overall volatility in the crypto market.

与此同时，比特币矿商因大幅抛售而成为头条新闻。根据阿里的分析，12 月份迄今为止，比特币矿工已售出超过 14 万枚 BTC，金额达到惊人的 137.2 亿美元。众所周知，这种大规模的矿商抛售会影响短期价格走势，并导致加密货币市场的整体波动。

So far in December, #Bitcoin miners have sold over 140,000 $BTC, totaling to $13.72 billion!

12 月份到目前为止，#Bitcoin 矿工已售出超过 140,000 美元 BTC，总计 137.2 亿美元！

pic.twitter.com/1g3sCo6uJM

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 14, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 14 日

On the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETFs are seeing massive inflows. According to Wu Blockchain, these ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $429 million on December 13, continuing a 12-day streak of net positive inflows. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw the highest daily inflow at $393 million.

另一方面，比特币现货 ETF 正出现大量资金流入。据Wu Blockchain称，这些ETF在12月13日录得总净流入4.29亿美元，延续了连续12天的净正流入。值得注意的是，贝莱德的 IBIT ETF 日流入量最高，达 3.93 亿美元。

Collectively, these ETFs have a total net asset value of $114.969 billion, indicating strong institutional interest in the leading cryptocurrency. This news comes amidst anticipation for the upcoming launch of Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF.

总的来说，这些 ETF 的总资产净值为 1149.69 亿美元，表明机构对领先的加密货币有浓厚的兴趣。这一消息发布之际，人们正期待着灰度即将推出的现货比特币 ETF。

Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $429 million on December 13, continuing its net inflow for 12 consecutive days.

12月13日，比特币现货ETF总净流入4.29亿美元，连续12天净流入。

BlackRock ETF IBIT had a net inflow of $393 million per day.

贝莱德 ETF IBIT 每日净流入 3.93 亿美元。

The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETF is $114.969 billion.https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG pic.twitter.com/dkQIYxF4Y8

比特币现货ETF总资产净值为1149.69亿美元。https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG pic.twitter.com/dkQIYxF4Y8

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 14, 2024

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) 2024 年 12 月 14 日

As Bitcoin price continues to make headlines, the crypto market is watching closely for signs of the next major price swing in sight. Whether the market top is still ahead or already behind us, understanding historical cycles and monitoring key data points will be critical for navigating the road ahead.

随着比特币价格继续成为头条新闻，加密货币市场正在密切关注下一次重大价格波动的迹象。无论市场顶部仍然领先还是已经落后，了解历史周期和监控关键数据点对于引领未来道路至关重要。