比特币 (BTC) 价格从历史高位回落，链上指标预示着潜在的盘整或修正

比特币的价格已从上周触及的历史高点 99,800 美元回落，并于 11 月 26 日跌至接近 90,000 美元的日低点。

Bitcoin price dropped to a daily low of around $90,000 on Nov. 26, as key metrics suggested the market is entering a period of potential consolidation or further correction.

11 月 26 日，比特币价格跌至 90,000 美元左右的日低点，因为关键指标表明市场正在进入潜在盘整或进一步调整的时期。

These metrics include sustained miner selling, an elevated MVRV Z-Score, and high levels of Bitcoin held in profit, which could lead to sell pressure as the year-end approaches.

这些指标包括持续的矿工抛售、MVRV Z 分数的升高以及比特币的高利润水平，这可能会在年底临近时导致抛售压力。

The Miner Net Position Change metric showed that long-term holders, who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, sold down their positions by over 366,000 coins monthly, indicating the highest selling pressure since April.

矿工净头寸变化指标显示，持有比特币超过 155 天的长期持有者每月减持超过 366,000 个比特币，这表明了自 4 月份以来的最高抛售压力。

This behavior reflects profit-taking by miners, a common occurrence during significant price rallies. Historically, such sustained sell-offs have correlated with local price tops as the market absorbs large inflows of Bitcoin into circulation.

这种行为反映了矿商的获利了结，这在价格大幅上涨期间很常见。从历史上看，随着市场吸收大量比特币流入流通，这种持续的抛售与当地价格顶部相关。

Furthermore, the Total Supply in Profit metric highlighted that a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.

此外，利润中的总供应量指标强调，比特币供应量的很大一部分目前处于盈利状态。

This widespread profitability typically leads to increased selling, as holders lock in gains. In previous cycles, such high profitability levels have been followed by corrections, as profit-taking creates resistance against further upward momentum.

这种普遍的盈利能力通常会导致抛售增加，因为持有者锁定了收益。在之前的周期中，如此高的盈利水平之后会出现调整，因为获利了结会阻碍进一步的上涨势头。

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its realized value, is currently at elevated levels, indicating that Bitcoin is nearing overvaluation territory.

衡量比特币相对于其实现价值的估值的 MVRV Z 分数目前处于较高水平，表明比特币已接近估值过高区域。

While not yet at extreme levels, the Z-Score’s rise suggests the market is entering a phase of heightened risk. Previous instances of similar Z-Score levels have coincided with corrections or periods of consolidation as market participants reassess Bitcoin’s short-term potential.

虽然尚未达到极端水平，但 Z 分数的上升表明市场正在进入风险加剧的阶段。由于市场参与者重新评估比特币的短期潜力，之前类似 Z 分数水平的实例与修正或整合期同时发生。

However, not all the on-chain metrics support a bearish outlook. The Net Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges metric reveals a dominance of outflows, with over 13,300 BTC exiting exchanges on Nov. 26 alone.

然而，并非所有链上指标都支持看跌前景。交易所的净转账量指标显示资金流出占主导地位，仅 11 月 26 日就有超过 13,300 个 BTC 退出交易所。

Such outflows suggest investors are moving assets to cold wallets, signaling long-term holding intentions and a continued belief in a bullish BTC price future. However, any reversal to inflows could indicate rising sell pressure and exacerbate BTC price correction.

这种资金外流表明投资者正在将资产转移到冷钱包，这表明了长期持有的意图以及对看涨比特币价格未来的持续信念。然而，资金流入的任何逆转都可能表明抛售压力上升，并加剧比特币价格调整。

Meanwhile, The minuscule daily candle that the BTC USD pair has formed on Nov. 27 shows the declining excitement of market participants. The bullish cues driving Bitcoin prices, including the Trump election win and Gensler exit, seem to have been factored in by the market.

与此同时，BTC/USD 货币对在 11 月 27 日形成的日线小蜡烛显示出市场参与者的兴奋度正在下降。推动比特币价格上涨的因素，包括特朗普当选和詹斯勒退出，似乎已经被市场考虑在内。

Now, traders are waiting on a decisive restart of the uptrend before entering the market. Bulls seem to be defending the 20-day EMA (red) support level near $89,000.

现在，交易者正在等待上升趋势的决定性重启，然后再入市。多头似乎正在捍卫 89,000 美元附近的 20 日均线（红色）支撑位。

However, breaching the immediate support might force BTC’s price to test support near $75,600 before recovering.

然而，突破即时支撑位可能会迫使 BTC 价格在恢复之前测试 75,600 美元附近的支撑位。

On the other hand, a break above $100,000 could provide Bitcoin’s price the impetus to rally to the resistance near $110,500. Breaking and consolidating above the immediate resistance might help the token rally to the resistance near $126,000 before retreating.

另一方面，突破 100,000 美元可能会为比特币价格提供上涨至 110,500 美元附近阻力位的动力。突破并巩固于直接阻力位上方可能有助于代币反弹至 126,000 美元附近的阻力位，然后回落。

However, the consolidation phase could last until 2025 unless BTC finds some new cues to fuel its bull run.

然而，除非 BTC 找到一些新的线索来推动牛市，否则整合阶段可能会持续到 2025 年。

The relative strength index for Bitcoin continued to be overbought, with a score of 78.19 on the daily charts. The overbought RSI levels add to the bearish cues against Bitcoin, strengthening the correction narrative

比特币的相对强度指数继续超买，日线图得分为78.19。超买的 RSI 水平增加了对比特币的看跌暗示，强化了修正的叙述