比特币（BTC）价格可能会看到反弹，因为美国债务暂停期在周五结束

1月20日唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就职典礼后的第二天，美国财政部付出了36万亿美元的债务上限。

The US Treasury reached the $36 trillion national debt ceiling a day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, kicking off a “debt issuance suspension period” and setting it to last until March 14, according to a letter published on Jan. 17.

根据1月17日发表的一封信，美国财政部于1月20日唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼后的第二天达到了36万亿美元的国债上限，开始了“债务发行期限”，并将其持续到3月14日。

The apex cryptocurrency has dropped 22% during the two-month debt suspension plan, falling from over $106,000 on Jan. 21 to $82,535 at the time of writing on March 12, TradingView data shows.

TradingView数据显示，APEX加密货币在为期两个月的债务暂停计划中下降了22％，从1月21日的106,000美元下降至3月12日撰写本文时的82,535美元。

BTC/USD, 1-day chart since Debt suspension plan. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD，自债务暂停计划以来为期1天的图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

A resumption of government spending may bring a liquidity boost to catalyze Bitcoin’s next rally, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Bitget Research首席分析师瑞安·李（Ryan Lee）表示，恢复政府支出可能会促进比特币下一次集会的流动性提高。

“With in-hand cash, the demand for financial assets such as stocks and crypto can increase, and there may be a relief from ongoing volatility,” the analyst told Cointelegraph. “In such periods, we can expect a boost in the overall momentum, although many other factors are important to note.”

这位分析师告诉Cointelegraph：“借助现金，对股票和加密货币等金融资产的需求可能会增加，并且可能会减轻持续的波动性。” “在这样的时期，我们可以预期总体势头会有所提高，尽管许多其他因素很重要。”

Beyond global tariff uncertainty, “concerns such as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical issues remain unresolved,” Lee added.

除了全球关税不确定性之外，“通货膨胀，利率和地缘政治问题等问题仍然无法解决”。

Considering that the debt suspension will end just two weeks after the White House Crypto Summit, a portion of the new liquidity may flow into cryptocurrencies, according to Aleksei Ponomarev, co-founder and CEO of crypto index investing firm J’JO.

据Crypto Index投资公司J'Jo的联合创始人兼首席执行官Aleksei Ponomarev表示，考虑到白宫加密峰会将在白宫加密峰会之后仅两周结束，新的流动性可能会流向加密货币。

“Surges in liquidity have typically benefited Bitcoin and risk assets, and the end of the US debt suspension will be no different,” he told Cointelegraph, adding:

他告诉Cointelegraph，他补充说：“流动性的激增通常使比特币和风险资产受益，美国债务终止的终结也不会有什么不同。”

GMI Total Liquidity Index, Bitcoin (RHS). Source: Raoul Pal

GMI总流动性指数，比特币（RHS）。资料来源：Raoul Pal

Bitcoin’s right-hand side (RHS), which marks the lowest bid price for which someone is willing to sell the currency, may still face a potential correction to near $70,000 until the end of the debt suspension period on Friday, based on its correlation with the global liquidity index.

比特币的右侧（RHS）标志着某人愿意出售该货币的最低出价价格，可能仍可能面临接近70,000美元的可能性，直到周五债务暂停期结束，基于其与全球流动性指数的相关性。

Still, the growing money supply could push Bitcoin price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

根据Real Vision的首席加密分析师Jamie Coutts的估计，尽管如此，不断增长的货币供应可能会在2025年底之前将比特币价格提高到132,000美元以上。

BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

BTC预测到M2货币供应增长的132,000美元。资料来源：Jamie Coutts

Related: Bitcoin may benefit from US stablecoin dominance push

相关：比特币可能受益于美国Stablecoin优势推动

Bitcoin price still limited by global trade war concerns

比特币价格仍然受到全球贸易战争的限制

While more global liquidity is an optimistic sign for Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency remains limited by global trade tariff concerns, according to James Wo, the founder and CEO of venture capital firm DFG:

虽然全球流动性是比特币的乐观标志，但世界上第一个加密货币仍受到全球贸易关税的关注的限制。

“Higher import costs and reduced corporate margins are likely to push inflation higher, forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer under a restrictive monetary policy,” he added.

他补充说：“更高的进口成本和降低的公司利润率可能会推动通货膨胀率更高，迫使中央银行在限制性货币政策下保持更长的利率升高。”

This may also tighten liquidity conditions, making risk assets such as Bitcoin “less attractive in the short to medium term,” Wo said.

Wo说，这也可能会收紧流动性条件，从而使诸如比特币“在短期到中期的吸引力”之类的风险资产。

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

相关：比特币储备反弹信号不切实际的行业期望

The European Union introduced retaliatory tariffs on March 12, threatening a Bitcoin correction below $75,000 in the short term. This may occur temporarily due to Europe accounting for over $1.5 trillion of annual US exports.

欧盟于3月12日提出了报复性关税，威胁到短期内的比特币更正低于$ 75,000。这可能是由于欧洲的年度美国出口量超过1.5万亿美元。

Despite the short-term correction concerns, most analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

尽管有短期纠正的问题，但大多数分析师仍然对比特币在2025年末的价格轨迹保持乐观，价格预测从160,000美元到180,000美元不等。