比特幣（BTC）價格可能會看到反彈，因為美國債務暫停期在周五結束

1月20日唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就職典禮後的第二天，美國財政部付出了36萬億美元的債務上限。

The US Treasury reached the $36 trillion national debt ceiling a day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, kicking off a “debt issuance suspension period” and setting it to last until March 14, according to a letter published on Jan. 17.

根據1月17日發表的一封信，美國財政部於1月20日唐納德·特朗普就職典禮後的第二天達到了36萬億美元的國債上限，開始了“債務發行期限”，並將其持續到3月14日。

The apex cryptocurrency has dropped 22% during the two-month debt suspension plan, falling from over $106,000 on Jan. 21 to $82,535 at the time of writing on March 12, TradingView data shows.

TradingView數據顯示，APEX加密貨幣在為期兩個月的債務暫停計劃中下降了22％，從1月21日的106,000美元下降至3月12日撰寫本文時的82,535美元。

BTC/USD, 1-day chart since Debt suspension plan. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD，自債務暫停計劃以來為期1天的圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

A resumption of government spending may bring a liquidity boost to catalyze Bitcoin’s next rally, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Bitget Research首席分析師瑞安·李（Ryan Lee）表示，恢復政府支出可能會促進比特幣下一次集會的流動性提高。

“With in-hand cash, the demand for financial assets such as stocks and crypto can increase, and there may be a relief from ongoing volatility,” the analyst told Cointelegraph. “In such periods, we can expect a boost in the overall momentum, although many other factors are important to note.”

這位分析師告訴Cointelegraph：“借助現金，對股票和加密貨幣等金融資產的需求可能會增加，並且可能會減輕持續的波動性。” “在這樣的時期，我們可以預期總體勢頭會有所提高，儘管許多其他因素很重要。”

Beyond global tariff uncertainty, “concerns such as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical issues remain unresolved,” Lee added.

除了全球關稅不確定性之外，“通貨膨脹，利率和地緣政治問題等問題仍然無法解決”。

Considering that the debt suspension will end just two weeks after the White House Crypto Summit, a portion of the new liquidity may flow into cryptocurrencies, according to Aleksei Ponomarev, co-founder and CEO of crypto index investing firm J’JO.

據Crypto Index投資公司J'Jo的聯合創始人兼首席執行官Aleksei Ponomarev表示，考慮到白宮加密峰會將在白宮加密峰會之後僅兩週結束，新的流動性可能會流向加密貨幣。

“Surges in liquidity have typically benefited Bitcoin and risk assets, and the end of the US debt suspension will be no different,” he told Cointelegraph, adding:

他告訴Cointelegraph，他補充說：“流動性的激增通常使比特幣和風險資產受益，美國債務終止的終結也不會有什麼不同。”

GMI Total Liquidity Index, Bitcoin (RHS). Source: Raoul Pal

GMI總流動性指數，比特幣（RHS）。資料來源：Raoul Pal

Bitcoin’s right-hand side (RHS), which marks the lowest bid price for which someone is willing to sell the currency, may still face a potential correction to near $70,000 until the end of the debt suspension period on Friday, based on its correlation with the global liquidity index.

比特幣的右側（RHS）標誌著某人願意出售該貨幣的最低出價價格，可能仍可能面臨接近70,000美元的可能性，直到週五債務暫停期結束，基於其與全球流動性指數的相關性。

Still, the growing money supply could push Bitcoin price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

根據Real Vision的首席加密分析師Jamie Coutts的估計，儘管如此，不斷增長的貨幣供應可能會在2025年底之前將比特幣價格提高到132,000美元以上。

BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

BTC預測到M2貨幣供應增長的132,000美元。資料來源：Jamie Coutts

Related: Bitcoin may benefit from US stablecoin dominance push

相關：比特幣可能受益於美國Stablecoin優勢推動

Bitcoin price still limited by global trade war concerns

比特幣價格仍然受到全球貿易戰爭的限制

While more global liquidity is an optimistic sign for Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency remains limited by global trade tariff concerns, according to James Wo, the founder and CEO of venture capital firm DFG:

雖然全球流動性是比特幣的樂觀標誌，但世界上第一個加密貨幣仍受到全球貿易關稅的關注的限制。

“Higher import costs and reduced corporate margins are likely to push inflation higher, forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer under a restrictive monetary policy,” he added.

他補充說：“更高的進口成本和降低的公司利潤率可能會推動通貨膨脹率更高，迫使中央銀行在限制性貨幣政策下保持更長的利率升高。”

This may also tighten liquidity conditions, making risk assets such as Bitcoin “less attractive in the short to medium term,” Wo said.

Wo說，這也可能會收緊流動性條件，從而使諸如比特幣“在短期到中期的吸引力”之類的風險資產。

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

相關：比特幣儲備反彈信號不切實際的行業期望

The European Union introduced retaliatory tariffs on March 12, threatening a Bitcoin correction below $75,000 in the short term. This may occur temporarily due to Europe accounting for over $1.5 trillion of annual US exports.

歐盟於3月12日提出了報復性關稅，威脅到短期內的比特幣更正低於$ 75,000。這可能是由於歐洲的年度美國出口量超過1.5萬億美元。

Despite the short-term correction concerns, most analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

儘管有短期糾正的問題，但大多數分析師仍然對比特幣在2025年末的價格軌跡保持樂觀，價格預測從160,000美元到180,000美元不等。