Bitcoin (BTC) price may see a rebound as the US debt suspension period comes to an end on Friday

The US Treasury hit its $36 trillion debt ceiling a day after President Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.

The US Treasury reached the $36 trillion national debt ceiling a day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, kicking off a “debt issuance suspension period” and setting it to last until March 14, according to a letter published on Jan. 17.

The apex cryptocurrency has dropped 22% during the two-month debt suspension plan, falling from over $106,000 on Jan. 21 to $82,535 at the time of writing on March 12, TradingView data shows.

BTC/USD, 1-day chart since Debt suspension plan. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A resumption of government spending may bring a liquidity boost to catalyze Bitcoin’s next rally, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

“With in-hand cash, the demand for financial assets such as stocks and crypto can increase, and there may be a relief from ongoing volatility,” the analyst told Cointelegraph. “In such periods, we can expect a boost in the overall momentum, although many other factors are important to note.”

Beyond global tariff uncertainty, “concerns such as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical issues remain unresolved,” Lee added.

Considering that the debt suspension will end just two weeks after the White House Crypto Summit, a portion of the new liquidity may flow into cryptocurrencies, according to Aleksei Ponomarev, co-founder and CEO of crypto index investing firm J’JO.

“Surges in liquidity have typically benefited Bitcoin and risk assets, and the end of the US debt suspension will be no different,” he told Cointelegraph, adding:

GMI Total Liquidity Index, Bitcoin (RHS). Source: Raoul Pal

Bitcoin’s right-hand side (RHS), which marks the lowest bid price for which someone is willing to sell the currency, may still face a potential correction to near $70,000 until the end of the debt suspension period on Friday, based on its correlation with the global liquidity index.

Still, the growing money supply could push Bitcoin price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

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Bitcoin price still limited by global trade war concerns

While more global liquidity is an optimistic sign for Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency remains limited by global trade tariff concerns, according to James Wo, the founder and CEO of venture capital firm DFG:

“Higher import costs and reduced corporate margins are likely to push inflation higher, forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer under a restrictive monetary policy,” he added.

This may also tighten liquidity conditions, making risk assets such as Bitcoin “less attractive in the short to medium term,” Wo said.

Related: Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations

The European Union introduced retaliatory tariffs on March 12, threatening a Bitcoin correction below $75,000 in the short term. This may occur temporarily due to Europe accounting for over $1.5 trillion of annual US exports.

Despite the short-term correction concerns, most analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.