2024 年和 2025 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：15 万美元还是 50 万美元？

在 2024 年的前六个月中，您可能听到过各种关于比特币 (BTC) 价格下一步走势的超级乐观预测。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) had a rough 2023. After rallying to a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin traders had high hopes for 2022. Instead, Bitcoin began 2022 trading around $47,000 and ended the year around $16,500. Ouch.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在 2023 年经历了艰难的一年。在 2021 年 11 月反弹至 69,000 美元（当时的）历史高点后，比特币交易者对 2022 年寄予厚望。相反，比特币在 2022 年开始时的交易价格约为 47,000 美元，年底的交易价格约为 16,500 美元。哎哟。

But Bitcoin traders had another chance to get excited in early 2023. Bitcoin started the year around $16,500 and quickly rallied to $26,000 by mid-March. Since then, Bitcoin has traded largely sideways for the past three months.

但比特币交易者在 2023 年初还有另一个兴奋的机会。比特币年初价格约为 16,500 美元，到 3 月中旬迅速反弹至 26,000 美元。从那时起，比特币在过去三个月里一直呈横向盘整走势。

Now what

怎么办

Bitcoin traders are waiting for the next big move, and billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya thinks he knows when it will happen. In a recent interview with Axios, Palihapitiya outlined two key catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to $500,000 by October 2025.

比特币交易员正在等待下一个重大举措，亿万富翁风险投资家查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 认为他知道下一个重大举措何时会发生。在最近接受 Axios 采访时，Palihapitiya 概述了到 2025 年 10 月可能将比特币推升至 50 万美元的两个关键催化剂。

"Two halvings from now, which is October '25, I think you'll see Bitcoin at $500,000," said Palihapitiya. "I think the way to model it is to take the last halving, which is three months, went up 1.37 times. We're currently at 1.3 times. So, you multiply that out. And then you'll see the price appreciation begin to happen."

Palihapitiya 表示：“从现在起两次减半，即 25 年 10 月，我认为比特币价格将达到 50 万美元。” “我认为建模的方法是以最后一次减半为例，即三个月，上涨了 1.37 倍。我们目前的涨幅为 1.3 倍。所以，你将其相乘。然后你会看到价格开始升值即将发生。”

The first catalyst is the Bitcoin halving. As you probably know, Bitcoin miners are rewarded with new Bitcoin for each block they add to the Bitcoin blockchain. This reward started at 50 Bitcoin in 2009 and is halved about every four years. We are currently on the seventh halving period, which started in April 2024. During this period, Bitcoin miners are being rewarded with 6.25 Bitcoin for each block they add to the blockchain.

第一个催化剂是比特​​币减半。您可能知道，比特币矿工每添加到比特币区块链中的每个区块都会获得新的比特币奖励。该奖励从 2009 年开始为 50 比特币，大约每四年减半。我们目前正处于自 2024 年 4 月开始的第七次减半期。在此期间，比特币矿工每向区块链添加一个区块，就会获得 6.25 比特币的奖励。

When the next halving occurs in 2024, the reward will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. This halving event is a big deal among Bitcoin traders because it has a profound effect on the price of Bitcoin. In previous halving cycles, Bitcoin has tended to rally significantly in the months and years following the event.

下一次减半发生在 2024 年时，奖励将减少至每个区块 3.125 比特币。这次减半事件对于比特币交易者来说是一件大事，因为它对比特币的价格产生了深远的影响。在之前的减半周期中，比特币往往会在减半事件发生后的几个月和几年内大幅反弹。

Palihapitiya analyzed Bitcoin's price performance over three-month, 12-month, and 18-month intervals following the last halving in April 2020. He found that Bitcoin's price increased by 1.37 times, 6.51 times, and 7.8 times, respectively, during these periods.

Palihapitiya 分析了 2020 年 4 月上次减半后三个月、12 个月和 18 个月的比特币价格表现。他发现，在此期间，比特币的价格分别上涨了 1.37 倍、6.51 倍和 7.8 倍。

Using these numbers, Palihapitiya constructed a potential timeline for how Bitcoin's price might increase over the 2024 halving cycle. We can probably expect the price of Bitcoin to trade largely sideways through much of the summer, which marks the first three months of the cycle. But the price of Bitcoin could start to heat up as we head into the fall and winter. By next April, the price of Bitcoin could be well on its way to $500,000.

利用这些数据，Palihapitiya 构建了一个潜在的时间表，说明比特币价格在 2024 年减半周期内可能会如何上涨。我们可以预计，比特币的价格在夏季的大部分时间里都会大幅横盘交易，这标志着周期的前三个月。但随着进入秋季和冬季，比特币的价格可能会开始升温。到明年 4 月，比特币的价格可能会达到 50 万美元。

The second key factor is Bitcoin's growing opportunity to become a global reserve asset. According to Palihapitiya, non-Western nations are increasingly likely to become "dual currency," meaning they will choose to hold both their domestic currencies and Bitcoin.

第二个关键因素是比特币成为全球储备资产的机会越来越大。帕里哈皮蒂亚表示，非西方国家越来越有可能成为“双币”，这意味着他们将选择同时持有本国货币和比特币。

"The non-Western world is going to become dual currency," said Palihapitiya. "They're going to hold their local fiat and then they're going to choose one global reserve asset. You're going to see the petrodollar arrangement begin to fray at the edges."

“非西方世界将成为双重货币，”帕里哈皮蒂亚说。 “他们将持有当地法定货币，然后选择一种全球储备资产。你将看到石油美元安排开始出现边缘磨损。”

Palihapitiya pointed out that the U.S. is adding $1 trillion in new debt every 100 days and that its budget deficits are becoming worrisome. The more debt the U.S. takes on, the more money it needs to print, and the less valuable the dollar becomes. He refers to this process as "dollar debasement."

帕利哈皮蒂亚指出，美国每100天新增债务就达1万亿美元，其预算赤字正变得令人担忧。美国承担的债务越多，需要印的钱就越多，美元就越不值钱。他将这一过程称为“美元贬值”。

Given this context, it's possible to understand why some non-Western nations may not want to hold dollars anymore. Case in point: Saudi Arabia is rethinking its petrodollar arrangement with the United States. This arrangement, which has lasted 50 years, is arguably one of the most important underpinnings of the modern global economy. It forces everyone in the world to buy dollars to buy oil, and it ensures constant demand for U.S. debt.

考虑到这种背景，就可以理解为什么一些非西方国家可能不想再持有美元了。典型的例子是：沙特阿拉伯正在重新考虑与美国的石油美元安排。这种持续了 50 年的安排可以说是现代全球经济最重要的基础之一。它迫使世界上每个人都购买美元来购买石油，并确保对美国债务的持续需求。

If nations around the world start to hold fewer dollars, it could open the door for Bitcoin. Add in the fact that many institutional investors now view Bitcoin as a form of "digital gold," and it's easy to see the path for Bitcoin to become a reserve asset. At some point, Palihapitiya thinks Bitcoin might replace gold entirely.

如果世界各国开始减少持有美元，可能会为比特币打开大门。再加上许多机构投资者现在将比特币视为“数字黄金”的一种形式，很容易看出比特币成为储备资产的路径。帕里哈皮蒂亚认为，在某种程度上，比特币可能会完全取代黄金。