2024 年和 2025 年比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：15 萬美元還是 50 萬美元？

在 2024 年的前六個月中，您可能聽過各種關於比特幣 (BTC) 價格下一步走勢的超級樂觀預測。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) had a rough 2023. After rallying to a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin traders had high hopes for 2022. Instead, Bitcoin began 2022 trading around $47,000 and ended the year around $16,500. Ouch.

比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在2023 年經歷了艱難的一年。 2022 年開始時的交易價格約為47,000 美元，年底的交易價格約為16,500 美元。哎喲。

But Bitcoin traders had another chance to get excited in early 2023. Bitcoin started the year around $16,500 and quickly rallied to $26,000 by mid-March. Since then, Bitcoin has traded largely sideways for the past three months.

但比特幣交易者在 2023 年初還有另一個興奮的機會。從那時起，比特幣在過去三個月一直呈現橫向盤整走勢。

Now what

怎麼辦

Bitcoin traders are waiting for the next big move, and billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya thinks he knows when it will happen. In a recent interview with Axios, Palihapitiya outlined two key catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to $500,000 by October 2025.

比特幣交易員正在等待下一個重大舉措，億萬富翁創投家查馬斯·帕里哈皮蒂亞 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 認為他知道下一個重大舉措何時會發生。在最近接受 Axios 採訪時，Palihapitiya 概述了到 2025 年 10 月可能將比特幣推向 50 萬美元的兩個關鍵催化劑。

"Two halvings from now, which is October '25, I think you'll see Bitcoin at $500,000," said Palihapitiya. "I think the way to model it is to take the last halving, which is three months, went up 1.37 times. We're currently at 1.3 times. So, you multiply that out. And then you'll see the price appreciation begin to happen."

Palihapitiya 表示：“從現在起兩次減半，即 25 年 10 月，我認為比特幣價格將達到 50 萬美元。” 「我認為建模的方法是以最後一次減半為例，即三個月，上漲了 1.37 倍。我們目前的漲幅為 1.3 倍。所以，你將其相乘。然後你會看到價格開始升值即將發生。

The first catalyst is the Bitcoin halving. As you probably know, Bitcoin miners are rewarded with new Bitcoin for each block they add to the Bitcoin blockchain. This reward started at 50 Bitcoin in 2009 and is halved about every four years. We are currently on the seventh halving period, which started in April 2024. During this period, Bitcoin miners are being rewarded with 6.25 Bitcoin for each block they add to the blockchain.

第一個催化劑是比特幣減半。您可能知道，比特幣礦工每添加到比特幣區塊鏈中的每個區塊都會獲得新的比特幣獎勵。該獎勵從 2009 年開始為 50 比特幣，大約每四年減半。我們目前正處於 2024 年 4 月開始的第七次減半期。

When the next halving occurs in 2024, the reward will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. This halving event is a big deal among Bitcoin traders because it has a profound effect on the price of Bitcoin. In previous halving cycles, Bitcoin has tended to rally significantly in the months and years following the event.

下一次減半發生在 2024 年時，獎勵將減少至每個區塊 3.125 比特幣。這次減半事件對比特幣交易者來說是一件大事，因為它對比特幣的價格產生了深遠的影響。在先前的減半週期中，比特幣往往會在減半事件發生後的幾個月和幾年內大幅反彈。

Palihapitiya analyzed Bitcoin's price performance over three-month, 12-month, and 18-month intervals following the last halving in April 2020. He found that Bitcoin's price increased by 1.37 times, 6.51 times, and 7.8 times, respectively, during these periods.

Palihapitiya 分析了2020 年4 月上次減半後三個月、12 個月和18 個月的比特幣價格表現。倍。

Using these numbers, Palihapitiya constructed a potential timeline for how Bitcoin's price might increase over the 2024 halving cycle. We can probably expect the price of Bitcoin to trade largely sideways through much of the summer, which marks the first three months of the cycle. But the price of Bitcoin could start to heat up as we head into the fall and winter. By next April, the price of Bitcoin could be well on its way to $500,000.

利用這些數據，Palihapitiya 建立了一個潛在的時間表，說明比特幣價格在 2024 年減半週期內可能會如何上漲。我們可以預計，比特幣的價格在夏季的大部分時間都會大幅橫盤交易，這標誌著週期的前三個月。但隨著進入秋季和冬季，比特幣的價格可能會開始升溫。到明年 4 月，比特幣的價格可能會達到 50 萬美元。

The second key factor is Bitcoin's growing opportunity to become a global reserve asset. According to Palihapitiya, non-Western nations are increasingly likely to become "dual currency," meaning they will choose to hold both their domestic currencies and Bitcoin.

第二個關鍵因素是比特幣成為全球儲備資產的機會越來越大。帕里哈皮蒂亞表示，非西方國家越來越有可能成為“雙幣”，這意味著他們將選擇同時持有本國貨幣和比特幣。

"The non-Western world is going to become dual currency," said Palihapitiya. "They're going to hold their local fiat and then they're going to choose one global reserve asset. You're going to see the petrodollar arrangement begin to fray at the edges."

「非西方世界將成為雙重貨幣，」帕里哈皮蒂亞說。 “他們將持有當地法定貨幣，然後選擇一種全球儲備資產。你將看到石油美元安排開始出現邊緣磨損。”

Palihapitiya pointed out that the U.S. is adding $1 trillion in new debt every 100 days and that its budget deficits are becoming worrisome. The more debt the U.S. takes on, the more money it needs to print, and the less valuable the dollar becomes. He refers to this process as "dollar debasement."

帕利哈皮蒂亞指出，美國每100天新增債務就達1兆美元，預算赤字正變得令人擔憂。美國承擔的債務越多，需要印的錢就越多，美元就越不值錢。他將這一過程稱為「美元貶值」。

Given this context, it's possible to understand why some non-Western nations may not want to hold dollars anymore. Case in point: Saudi Arabia is rethinking its petrodollar arrangement with the United States. This arrangement, which has lasted 50 years, is arguably one of the most important underpinnings of the modern global economy. It forces everyone in the world to buy dollars to buy oil, and it ensures constant demand for U.S. debt.

考慮到這種背景，就可以理解為什麼有些非西方國家可能不想再持有美元了。典型的例子是：沙烏地阿拉伯正在重新考慮與美國的石油美元安排。這種持續了 50 年的安排可以說是現代全球經濟最重要的基礎之一。它迫使世界上每個人都購買美元來購買石油，並確保對美國債務的持續需求。

If nations around the world start to hold fewer dollars, it could open the door for Bitcoin. Add in the fact that many institutional investors now view Bitcoin as a form of "digital gold," and it's easy to see the path for Bitcoin to become a reserve asset. At some point, Palihapitiya thinks Bitcoin might replace gold entirely.

如果世界各國開始減少持有美元，可能會為比特幣打開大門。再加上許多機構投資者現在將比特幣視為「數位黃金」的一種形式，很容易看出比特幣成為儲備資產的路徑。帕里哈皮蒂亞認為，在某種程度上，比特幣可能會完全取代黃金。