比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：BTC/美元这次会突破 10 万美元吗？

在经历了震荡的华尔街交易时段后，1 月 7 日比特币继续交易至 10 万美元以上。接下来它的价格会走向何方？

Bitcoin ( BTC ) price continued to trade above the $100,000 mark on Jan. 7 following a choppy Wall Street trading session. Where will its price go next?

在华尔街交易时段震荡之后，比特币 (BTC) 价格于 1 月 7 日继续交投于 100,000 美元大关之上。接下来它的价格会走向何方？

Traders and other market commentators shared their short-term Bitcoin price predictions as data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed 4% daily gains.

交易员和其他市场评论员分享了他们的短期比特币价格预测，Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据证实每日比特币价格上涨 4%。

Bitcoin “head and shoulders” ripe for failure

比特币“头肩顶”失败的时机已经成熟

Bitcoin bulls beating a path back to six figures means that some bearish chart signals may no longer be valid.

比特币多头重返六位数意味着一些看跌图表信号可能不再有效。

Among them is the “head and shoulders” pattern on daily timeframes that had been playing out through December.

其中包括整个 12 月每日时间框架上的“头肩形”形态。

Here, an uptrend traditionally reverses in three local peaks, two lower “shoulders” with a higher “head” between them. In Bitcoin's case, the current all-time high of $108,000 marked the head.

在这里，上升趋势传统上在三个局部峰值处反转，两个较低的“肩膀”，它们之间有一个较高的“头部”。就比特币而言，目前的历史高点为 108,000 美元。

For trader and analyst Aksel Kibar, there is cause to consider that the head and shoulders reversal may fail.

对于交易员兼分析师 Aksel Kibar 来说，有理由认为头肩形反转可能会失败。

“$BTCUSD On daily scale formed a similar H&S top. Price is now challenging the high of the possible right shoulder,” he reported in a dedicated X thread on the topic.

“BTCUSD 在日线规模上形成了类似的 H&S 顶部。价格现在正在挑战可能的右肩高点，”他在专门的 X 主题中报告道。

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

比特币/美元图表。资料来源：Aksel Kibar/X

Kibar added that bears could push BTC price down significantly — even to near the old all-time high of $73,800 from last March — and still fail to cancel the bull run entirely.

Kibar 补充说，空头可能会大幅压低 BTC 价格，甚至跌至去年 3 月以来的历史高点 73,800 美元附近，但仍然无法完全取消牛市。

“Even if the H&S top succeeds and price reaches 80K, this price action can be part of the pullback following the breakout above 73.7K,” he said.

他表示：“即使 H&S 顶部成功并且价格达到 80K，这种价格走势也可能是突破 73.7K 后回调的一部分。”

BTC price cup and handle breakout still in play

BTC价格杯子和手柄突破仍在发挥作用

Another chart formation on the radar is the so-called cup and handle, which, for BTC/USD, is at a critical point.

雷达上的另一个图表形态是所谓的杯柄，对于 BTC/USD 来说，它正处于关键点。

After returning to the March highs and continuing up, multiple retracements to near $90,000 made some traders nervous that the traditionally bullish cup and handle may break down. Now, hope is returning.

回到3月高点并继续上涨后，多次回撤至90,000美元附近，令一些交易员担心传统看涨的杯子和手柄可能会崩溃。现在，希望又回来了。

“Bitcoin looks ripe to complete the cup & handle formation,” trader Jelle told X followers this week, offering a target of $140,000.

交易员 Jelle 本周对 X 粉丝表示：“比特币完成杯柄形态的时机似乎已经成熟，”他给出的目标价为 14 万美元。

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

比特币/美元图表。来源：Jelle/X

For Kibar, too, the formation remains a valid long-term navigation tool. As Cointelegraph reported, his monthly chart currently has a target of $137,000 in the event of success.

对于基巴尔来说，该编队仍然是一个有效的长期导航工具。据 Cointelegraph 报道，如果成功，他的月度图表目前的目标是 137,000 美元。

Others have eyed the phenomenon for several months, with price targets varying.

其他人几个月来一直关注这一现象，但价格目标各不相同。

“Weekly Cup and Handle targets $125000 still in effect,” commentator MartyParty confirmed in an X post on Dec. 31 as BTC/USD traded at $94,000.

“每周 Cup and Handle 目标仍然有效，”评论员 MartyParty 在 12 月 31 日的 X 帖子中证实，当时 BTC/USD 交易价格为 94,000 美元。

BTC/USD chart. Source: MartyParty/X

比特币/美元图表。资料来源：MartyParty/X

Fibonacci levels speak volumes

斐波那契水平意义重大

Zooming out further, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, is concerned with where the bull market may put in its real top.

进一步缩小范围，交易资源 Material Indicators 的联合创始人基思·艾伦 (Keith Alan) 担心牛市可能会在哪里达到真正的顶部。

Even this week's surge was capped by a familiar Fibonacci retracement level, he noted on X, with old 2021 all-time highs still influencing price.

他在 X 上指出，即使本周的上涨也受到了熟悉的斐波那契回撤水平的限制，2021 年的历史高点仍在影响价格。

“This time it came from the 1.618 Fib,” he wrote about short-timeframe rejection.

“这次它来自 1.618 Fib，”他在谈到短期框架拒绝时写道。

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/美元 1 小时图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Those levels include $110,000 and $122,500 thanks to the cup and handle — numbers already familiar to Cointelegraph readers.

这些水平包括 110,000 美元和 122,500 美元，这要归功于杯子和手柄——Cointelegraph 读者已经熟悉这些数字。

“If price continues up from there, the lower end of the Lifetime Channel serves as the glass ceiling on price discovery,” Alan concluded alongside an accompanying chart.

“如果价格从那里继续上涨，生命周期通道的低端将成为价格发现的玻璃天花板，”艾伦在随附的图表中总结道。

BTC/USD 1-week chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: Keith Alan/X

带有斐波那契水平的 BTC/USD 1 周图表。来源：Keith Alan/X