2025 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：ARK Invest 重点介绍关键看涨指标

ARK Invest 在其 12 月版《比特币月刊》中强调了表明比特币可能在 2025 年进一步上涨的关键指标。

Bitcoin (BTC) price movements in 2024 were analyzed by ARK Invest to identify key metrics that could influence its future trajectory in 2025. Here's a summary of the findings:

ARK Invest 分析了 2024 年比特币 (BTC) 的价格走势，以确定可能影响其 2025 年未来走势的关键指标。以下是调查结果摘要：

Relative Volatility: Despite rising to the $100,000 zone in Q4, Bitcoin’s volatility remained moderate when viewed in a broader historical context. ARK’s analysis showed that Bitcoin’s monthly realized volatility was up during December, but it was relatively tame compared to annual trends.

相对波动性：尽管比特币在第四季度升至 100,000 美元区域，但从更广泛的历史背景来看，其波动性仍然温和。 ARK 的分析显示，比特币的月度实际波动率在 12 月份有所上升，但与年度趋势相比相对温和。

Holder Behavior: According to ARK's data, a record-breaking 62% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin had not been moved in over a year, while the cryptocurrency more than doubled its price in 2024. This strong belief in Bitcoin for the long run was evident among investors, who didn't seem to be concerned by the asset's inherent volatility.

持有者行为：根据 ARK 的数据，比特币流通量的创纪录的 62% 在一年多的时间里没有被转移，而加密货币的价格在 2024 年上涨了一倍多。这种对比特币长期发展的坚定信念是这在投资者中很明显，他们似乎并不担心该资产的固有波动性。

Price Action and Future Outlook: Commencing 2025 just below the $100,000 psychological level, Bitcoin price movements were influenced by several factors, including shifting U.S. Federal Reserve policies and increased institutional participation.

价格走势和未来展望：从 2025 年开始，比特币价格走势略低于 10 万美元心理水平，受到多种因素的影响，包括美联储政策的转变和机构参与度的增加。

According to ARK, these price levels will depend on both market sentiment and regulatory clarity. Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, is bullish on Bitcoin for the longer term, having previously stated that it could reach $1 million by 2030, driven by growing institutional adoption and its deflationary nature.

据 ARK 称，这些价格水平将取决于市场情绪和监管清晰度。 ARK Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 长期看好比特币，此前曾表示，在机构采用率不断提高及其通货紧缩性质的推动下，到 2030 年比特币价格可能达到 100 万美元。

A Balanced Perspective: While some experts remain optimistic based on these metrics, they also caution that Bitcoin’s market is not new to wild swings in price movements. Periods of low volatility often precede periods of major price movements.

平衡的观点：虽然一些专家根据这些指标仍然保持乐观，但他们也警告说，比特币市场对价格波动的剧烈波动并不陌生。低波动时期通常先于价格大幅波动时期。

Despite the optimism, some experts urge caution. Bitcoin’s market is not new to wild swings in price; for the most part, periods of low volatility precede periods of major price movements. While data would suggest further upside could be seen, unexpected market events or changes in regulatory landscapes might trigger short-term volatility.

尽管前景乐观，但一些专家仍敦促谨慎行事。比特币市场对于价格的剧烈波动并不陌生。大多数情况下，低波动时期先于价格大幅波动时期。虽然数据表明可能会出现进一步的上涨，但意外的市场事件或监管环境的变化可能会引发短期波动。