ARK Invest, in its December edition of “The Bitcoin Monthly,” highlighted key metrics suggesting that Bitcoin could see further upside in 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price movements in 2024 were analyzed by ARK Invest to identify key metrics that could influence its future trajectory in 2025. Here's a summary of the findings:
Relative Volatility: Despite rising to the $100,000 zone in Q4, Bitcoin’s volatility remained moderate when viewed in a broader historical context. ARK’s analysis showed that Bitcoin’s monthly realized volatility was up during December, but it was relatively tame compared to annual trends.
Holder Behavior: According to ARK's data, a record-breaking 62% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin had not been moved in over a year, while the cryptocurrency more than doubled its price in 2024. This strong belief in Bitcoin for the long run was evident among investors, who didn't seem to be concerned by the asset's inherent volatility.
Price Action and Future Outlook: Commencing 2025 just below the $100,000 psychological level, Bitcoin price movements were influenced by several factors, including shifting U.S. Federal Reserve policies and increased institutional participation.
According to ARK, these price levels will depend on both market sentiment and regulatory clarity. Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, is bullish on Bitcoin for the longer term, having previously stated that it could reach $1 million by 2030, driven by growing institutional adoption and its deflationary nature.
A Balanced Perspective: While some experts remain optimistic based on these metrics, they also caution that Bitcoin’s market is not new to wild swings in price movements. Periods of low volatility often precede periods of major price movements.
Despite the optimism, some experts urge caution. Bitcoin’s market is not new to wild swings in price; for the most part, periods of low volatility precede periods of major price movements. While data would suggest further upside could be seen, unexpected market events or changes in regulatory landscapes might trigger short-term volatility.
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