比特币（BTC）价格预测：超售市场和对美国关税的反应可能是过去

加密货币市场在周三和周四的关税宣布宣布的前提下，唐纳德·特朗普总统向该国所有进口征收10％的费用。

An oversold market and reactions to U.S. tariffs may be a thing of the past with traders now eying new economic data and rate cuts in the coming months — with expectations of a bitcoin bounce in the near term.

超越市场和对美国关税的反应可能是过去的事，现在交易员正在关注未来几个月的新经济数据和削减税率 - 期望比特币在短期内反弹。

Crypto markets saw high volatility on Wednesday and Thursday in the run-up to the tariff announcement, where President Donald Trump levied a minimum 10% fee on all imports to the country.

加密货币市场在周三和周四的关税宣布宣布的前提下，唐纳德·特朗普总统向该国所有进口征收10％的费用。

Major tokens bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), Solana’s SOL, xrp (XRP), and others, zoomed ahead of the speech and slumped as global markets fell, reversing all gains from the start of the week.

少校令牌比特币（BTC），Ether（ETH），Solana's Sol，XRP（XRP）等人在演讲前放大，随着全球市场的下降，从本周初开始扭转了所有收益。

Markets have since shown an uptick in prices on Friday morning, with BTC steady above $83,100, ETH retaking $1,800 and XRP, SOL and ADA rising over 2%.

此后，市场在周五上午的价格上涨，BTC稳定在83,100美元以上，ETH返回1,800美元，XRP，SOL和ADA上涨了2％以上。

Ahead of Trump’s speech, investors transferred larger volumes of Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP into exchanges, suggesting a growing intent to sell, per a CryptoQuant note shared with CoinDesk on Thursday. Bitcoin transactions surged to as much as 2,500 BTC in a single block just hours after Trump began speaking.

在特朗普的演讲之前，投资者将大量的比特币，ETH和XRP转移到了交流中，这表明，根据周四与Coindesk分享的加密票据，越来越多的意图出售。特朗普开始讲话仅几个小时后，在一个街区中，比特币交易飙升至多达2500 btc。

In the U.S., Coinbase also saw a rise in bitcoin deposits, particularly from large holders.

在美国，Coinbase还看到比特币沉积物的增加，尤其是来自大型持有人。

Similarly, ETH inflows into exchanges spiked to an hourly peak of approximately 80,000 ETH. XRP transfers into Binance jumped to 130 million in one hour, up from under 10 million XRP per hour throughout most of the previous day.

同样，ETH流入交换，高达约80,000 ETH的小时峰值。 XRP转移到Binance的一小时内跃升至1.3亿，高于前一天的大部分时间每小时1000万个XRP。

These rising exchange inflows reflected investor willingness to exit positions amid growing economic uncertainty, CryptoQuant said, with demand for Bitcoin and ETH declining in the perpetual futures market as traders closed their long positions to take profits.

CryptoQuant说，由于经济不确定性的日益严重，这些不断上升的交换流入反映了投资者退出头寸的意愿，随着交易者关闭了长期职位以获利，对比特币和ETH的需求下降了。

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But with headwinds behind and a new economic data set to be released later Friday could provide the impetus for a short-term relief in markets.

但是，随着逆风的落后，周五晚些时候将发布新的经济数据，可以为市场上的短期缓解提供动力。

Attention is on the non-farm payroll report scheduled for a Friday release. The monthly U.S. economic indicator released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the change in employment, reflecting job creation, unemployment trends, and wage growth, offering insight into economic health.

注意周五发布的非农业工资报告。劳工统计局发布的每月美国经济指标表明，就业的变化，反映了创造就业机会，失业趋势和工资增长，从而深入了解了经济健康。

Markets react strongly to NFP data: a higher-than-expected report can boost stocks and the dollar, signaling growth, while a weak report may spark sell-offs and lower yields, hinting at slowdown or recession risks. Traders use it to gauge Federal Reserve policy moves, amplifying its installment.

市场对NFP数据有强烈的反应：一份超过预期的报告可以提高股票和美元，信号增长，而弱报告可能会引起抛售和较低的收益率，暗示了放缓或衰退风险。贸易商使用它来评估美联储政策的移动，扩大其分期付款。

“Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market, ” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast earlier Friday. “ A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy.”

总部位于新加坡的QCP Capital在周五早些时候的电报广播中说：“投资者正在为美国劳动力市场的柔软性迹象做好准备。” “随着政策制定者试图缓慢的经济减速，今年的预期较弱的印刷品将加强案件，以进一步降低美联储降低税率。”

Data shows markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025 — 0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December. Rate cuts occur when a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, lowers interest rates to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper.

数据表明，市场在2025年的价格降低了四个速度，分别在6月，7月，9月和12月的价格为0.25个基点。当中央银行（如美联储）降低利率来降低利率以通过使借贷更便宜地刺激经济增长时，就会发生降低利率。

Bitcoin, and the broader market, tend to react positively to rate cuts, as lower rates reduce the appeal of traditional investments like bonds, driving investors toward alternatives like BTC. Additionally, a weaker dollar can enhance BTC’s value as a hedge against inflation or currency devaluation.

比特币和更广泛的市场倾向于对削减税率做出积极的反应，因为较低的利率降低了传统投资（例如债券）的吸引力，促使投资者推向BTC等替代方案。此外，较弱的美元可以提高BTC的价值，以防通货膨胀或货币贬值。

QCP Capital said it continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection.

QCP Capital表示，在短期内，它继续观察到波动率升高，并且有更多的下行保护购买者。

“That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce,” the fund said.

该基金说：“这就是说，随着现在的位置现在的光和风险资产在很大程度上超出了，阶段可能会近期弹跳。”