比特幣（BTC）價格預測：超售市場和對美國關稅的反應可能是過去

加密貨幣市場在周三和周四的關稅宣布宣布的前提下，唐納德·特朗普總統向該國所有進口徵收10％的費用。

An oversold market and reactions to U.S. tariffs may be a thing of the past with traders now eying new economic data and rate cuts in the coming months — with expectations of a bitcoin bounce in the near term.

超越市場和對美國關稅的反應可能是過去的事，現在交易員正在關注未來幾個月的新經濟數據和削減稅率 - 期望比特幣在短期內反彈。

Crypto markets saw high volatility on Wednesday and Thursday in the run-up to the tariff announcement, where President Donald Trump levied a minimum 10% fee on all imports to the country.

加密貨幣市場在周三和周四的關稅宣布宣布的前提下，唐納德·特朗普總統向該國所有進口徵收10％的費用。

Major tokens bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), Solana’s SOL, xrp (XRP), and others, zoomed ahead of the speech and slumped as global markets fell, reversing all gains from the start of the week.

少校令牌比特幣（BTC），Ether（ETH），Solana's Sol，XRP（XRP）等人在演講前放大，隨著全球市場的下降，從本周初開始扭轉了所有收益。

Markets have since shown an uptick in prices on Friday morning, with BTC steady above $83,100, ETH retaking $1,800 and XRP, SOL and ADA rising over 2%.

此後，市場在周五上午的價格上漲，BTC穩定在83,100美元以上，ETH返回1,800美元，XRP，SOL和ADA上漲了2％以上。

Ahead of Trump’s speech, investors transferred larger volumes of Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP into exchanges, suggesting a growing intent to sell, per a CryptoQuant note shared with CoinDesk on Thursday. Bitcoin transactions surged to as much as 2,500 BTC in a single block just hours after Trump began speaking.

在特朗普的演講之前，投資者將大量的比特幣，ETH和XRP轉移到了交流中，這表明，根據周四與Coindesk分享的加密票據，越來越多的意圖出售。特朗普開始講話僅幾個小時後，在一個街區中，比特幣交易飆升至多達2500 btc。

In the U.S., Coinbase also saw a rise in bitcoin deposits, particularly from large holders.

在美國，Coinbase還看到比特幣沉積物的增加，尤其是來自大型持有人。

Similarly, ETH inflows into exchanges spiked to an hourly peak of approximately 80,000 ETH. XRP transfers into Binance jumped to 130 million in one hour, up from under 10 million XRP per hour throughout most of the previous day.

同樣，ETH流入交換，高達約80,000 ETH的小時峰值。 XRP轉移到Binance的一小時內躍升至1.3億，高於前一天的大部分時間每小時1000萬個XRP。

These rising exchange inflows reflected investor willingness to exit positions amid growing economic uncertainty, CryptoQuant said, with demand for Bitcoin and ETH declining in the perpetual futures market as traders closed their long positions to take profits.

CryptoQuant說，由於經濟不確定性的日益嚴重，這些不斷上升的交換流入反映了投資者退出頭寸的意願，隨著交易者關閉了長期職位以獲利，對比特幣和ETH的需求下降了。

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But with headwinds behind and a new economic data set to be released later Friday could provide the impetus for a short-term relief in markets.

但是，隨著逆風的落後，週五晚些時候將發布新的經濟數據，可以為市場上的短期緩解提供動力。

Attention is on the non-farm payroll report scheduled for a Friday release. The monthly U.S. economic indicator released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the change in employment, reflecting job creation, unemployment trends, and wage growth, offering insight into economic health.

注意週五發布的非農業工資報告。勞工統計局發布的每月美國經濟指標表明，就業的變化，反映了創造就業機會，失業趨勢和工資增長，從而深入了解了經濟健康。

Markets react strongly to NFP data: a higher-than-expected report can boost stocks and the dollar, signaling growth, while a weak report may spark sell-offs and lower yields, hinting at slowdown or recession risks. Traders use it to gauge Federal Reserve policy moves, amplifying its installment.

市場對NFP數據有強烈的反應：一份超過預期的報告可以提高股票和美元，信號增長，而弱報告可能會引起拋售和較低的收益率，暗示了放緩或衰退風險。貿易商使用它來評估美聯儲政策的移動，擴大其分期付款。

“Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market, ” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast earlier Friday. “ A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy.”

總部位於新加坡的QCP Capital在周五早些時候的電報廣播中說：“投資者正在為美國勞動力市場的柔軟性跡像做好準備。” “隨著政策制定者試圖緩慢的經濟減速，今年的預期較弱的印刷品將加強案件，以進一步降低美聯儲降低稅率。”

Data shows markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025 — 0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December. Rate cuts occur when a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, lowers interest rates to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper.

數據表明，市場在2025年的價格降低了四個速度，分別在6月，7月，9月和12月的價格為0.25個基點。當中央銀行（如美聯儲）降低利率來降低利率以通過使借貸更便宜地刺激經濟增長時，就會發生降低利率。

Bitcoin, and the broader market, tend to react positively to rate cuts, as lower rates reduce the appeal of traditional investments like bonds, driving investors toward alternatives like BTC. Additionally, a weaker dollar can enhance BTC’s value as a hedge against inflation or currency devaluation.

比特幣和更廣泛的市場傾向於對削減稅率做出積極的反應，因為較低的利率降低了傳統投資（例如債券）的吸引力，促使投資者推向BTC等替代方案。此外，較弱的美元可以提高BTC的價值，以防通貨膨脹或貨幣貶值。

QCP Capital said it continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection.

QCP Capital表示，在短期內，它繼續觀察到波動率升高，並且有更多的下行保護購買者。

“That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce,” the fund said.

該基金說：“這就是說，隨著現在的位置現在的光和風險資產在很大程度上超出了，階段可能會近期彈跳。”