2025 年比特币 [BTC] 价格预测：市场情绪接近过热区域，调整风险增加

随着市场进入 2025 年，在日益增长的乐观情绪和新的机遇感的推动下，投资者情绪高涨。

As the market enters 2025 on a high note, brimming with optimism and opportunity, particularly in the realm of Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptos, experts sound a note of caution regarding the increasing risk of a correction.

随着市场进入 2025 年，市场充满乐观情绪和机遇，特别是在比特币 (BTC) 和其他主要加密货币领域，专家对不断增加的调整风险发出了警告。

With investor enthusiasm on the rise but still shy of the extremes seen during past market booms, the market continues to gain momentum. Against this backdrop, it is crucial for investors to remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on key indicators for early signs of a shift in market dynamics.

随着投资者热情的上升，但仍低于过去市场繁荣时期的极端情况，市场继续获得动力。在此背景下，投资者保持警惕，密切关注关键指标，寻找市场动态转变的早期迹象至关重要。

Fear and greed index – What happens at 95?

恐惧和贪婪指数 – 95 时会发生什么？

Source: Binance Square

来源：币安广场

At press time, the index stands at 69 – A strong sign of optimism but still far from the red zone. According to analysts, when the index touches 95, the market usually enters a phase of overheating, characterized by speculative excess and euphoria. Historically, this threshold has served as a warning signal, indicating that a correction or downturn may be on the horizon.

截至发稿时，该指数为 69——这是一个强烈的乐观迹象，但距离红色区域还很远。分析人士认为，当该指数触及95时，市场通常会进入过热阶段，其特点是投机过度和狂热。从历史上看，这个阈值一直是一个警告信号，表明修正或衰退可能即将到来。

Such levels often precede shifts in investor behavior, as cautious optimism gives way to unsustainable exuberance.

这种水平往往先于投资者行为的转变，因为谨慎的乐观情绪让位于不可持续的繁荣。

Key indicators to watch for a potential correctionAs the market approaches overheated conditions, Adler highlighted several key indicators that could provide early warnings of a correction.

关注潜在修正的关键指标随着市场接近过热状况，阿德勒强调了几个可以提供修正早期预警的关键指标。

Long-term holder sales

长期持有者销售

Increased selling activity by long-term holders has historically signaled the onset of market corrections. December 2024 saw a slight uptick in LTH profit-taking, echoing patterns observed before the 2021 and 2017 market peaks. A sharp rise in these sales would suggest that experienced investors are offloading ahead of a potential downturn, impacting market confidence.

从历史上看，长期持有者抛售活动的增加预示着市场调整的开始。 2024 年 12 月，LTH 获利回吐略有上升，与 2021 年和 2017 年市场见顶之前观察到的模式相呼应。这些销售的急剧上升表明，经验丰富的投资者正在潜在的低迷之前抛售，从而影响市场信心。

BTC ETF outflows

BTC ETF 资金流出

Following record-breaking inflows in late 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen modest outflows in early January 2025. This decline could indicate cooling sentiment among institutional investors – Often a harbinger of reduced buying pressure.

继 2024 年末创纪录的资金流入之后，比特币 ETF 在 2025 年 1 月上旬出现了小幅流出。这种下降可能表明机构投资者的情绪降温 — — 通常是购买压力减轻的先兆。

MicroStrategy share movements

MicroStrategy 股票走势

As a bellwether for institutional Bitcoin sentiment, MSTR shares serve as a key proxy. Any sustained decline in its stock performance, particularly following strong demand in Q4 2024, could reflect diminishing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among institutional investors. Such moves have previously coincided with market corrections.

作为机构比特币情绪的风向标，MSTR 股票是一个关键指标。其股票表现的任何持续下滑，尤其是在 2024 年第四季度的强劲需求之后，可能反映出机构投资者对比特币敞口的兴趣减弱。此前，此类举措与市场调整同时发生。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2025-26 价格预测

Bitcoin – Historical patterns and price analysis

比特币 – 历史模式和价格分析

Source: X

来源：X

The correlation between sentiment and price has historically been a reliable predictor of market cycles. At the time of writing, the NUPL-MVRV index appeared to be approaching levels that previously signaled market peaks in 2017, 2021, and mid-2024.

历史上，情绪与价格之间的相关性一直是市场周期的可靠预测指标。截至撰写本文时，NUPL-MVRV 指数似乎正在接近之前预示的 2017 年、2021 年和 2024 年中期市场峰值的水平。

These thresholds mark zones of heightened risk, where corrections often follow overheated conditions.

这些阈值标志着风险较高的区域，在过热的情况下通常会进行修正。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

Moreover, Bitcoin’s RSI cooled to 46 on the daily chart after December’s record highs, suggesting a potential shift towards consolidation or decline.

此外，比特币日线图上的 RSI 在 12 月创下历史新高后冷却至 46，表明可能转向盘整或下跌。

The price action near $95,000 reflects a critical resistance zone, as previous parabolic runs stalled after similar RSI drops. A failure to reclaim momentum here could pave the way for a retracement to support levels around $88,000–$90,000, aligning with broader profit-taking and declining ETF inflows.

95,000 美元附近的价格走势反映了一个关键阻力区，因为之前的抛物线运行在类似的 RSI 下跌后陷入停滞。如果未能在此重拾势头，可能会为回调至 88,000 美元至 90,000 美元左右的支撑位铺平道路，这与更广泛的获利了结和 ETF 流入量下降相一致。