2025 年比特幣 [BTC] 價格預測：市場情緒接近過熱區域，調整風險增加

隨著市場進入 2025 年，在日益增長的樂觀情緒和新的機會感的推動下，投資者情緒高漲。

As the market enters 2025 on a high note, brimming with optimism and opportunity, particularly in the realm of Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptos, experts sound a note of caution regarding the increasing risk of a correction.

隨著市場進入 2025 年，市場充滿樂觀情緒和機遇，特別是在比特幣 (BTC) 和其他主要加密貨幣領域，專家對不斷增加的調整風險發出了警告。

With investor enthusiasm on the rise but still shy of the extremes seen during past market booms, the market continues to gain momentum. Against this backdrop, it is crucial for investors to remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on key indicators for early signs of a shift in market dynamics.

隨著投資者熱情的上升，但仍低於過去市場繁榮時期的極端情況，市場繼續獲得動力。在此背景下，投資人保持警惕，密切關注關鍵指標，尋找市場動態轉變的早期跡象至關重要。

Fear and greed index – What happens at 95?

恐懼和貪婪指數 – 95 時會發生什麼事？

Source: Binance Square

來源：幣安廣場

At press time, the index stands at 69 – A strong sign of optimism but still far from the red zone. According to analysts, when the index touches 95, the market usually enters a phase of overheating, characterized by speculative excess and euphoria. Historically, this threshold has served as a warning signal, indicating that a correction or downturn may be on the horizon.

截至發稿時，該指數為 69——這是一個強烈的樂觀跡象，但距離紅色區域還很遠。分析師認為，當該指數觸及95時，市場通常會進入過熱階段，其特徵是投機過度和狂熱。從歷史上看，這個閾值一直是一個警告信號，表明修正或衰退可能即將到來。

Such levels often precede shifts in investor behavior, as cautious optimism gives way to unsustainable exuberance.

這種水平往往先於投資者行為的轉變，因為謹慎的樂觀情緒讓位給不可持續的繁榮。

Key indicators to watch for a potential correctionAs the market approaches overheated conditions, Adler highlighted several key indicators that could provide early warnings of a correction.

關注潛在修正的關鍵指標隨著市場接近​​過熱狀況，阿德勒強調了幾個可以提供修正早期預警的關鍵指標。

Long-term holder sales

長期持有者銷售

Increased selling activity by long-term holders has historically signaled the onset of market corrections. December 2024 saw a slight uptick in LTH profit-taking, echoing patterns observed before the 2021 and 2017 market peaks. A sharp rise in these sales would suggest that experienced investors are offloading ahead of a potential downturn, impacting market confidence.

從歷史上看，長期持有者拋售活動的增加預示著市場調整的開始。 2024 年 12 月，LTH 獲利回吐略有上升，與 2021 年和 2017 年市場見頂前觀察到的模式相呼應。這些銷量的急劇上升表明，經驗豐富的投資者正在潛在的低迷之前拋售，從而影響市場信心。

BTC ETF outflows

BTC ETF 資金流出

Following record-breaking inflows in late 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen modest outflows in early January 2025. This decline could indicate cooling sentiment among institutional investors – Often a harbinger of reduced buying pressure.

繼 2024 年底創紀錄的資金流入之後，比特幣 ETF 在 2025 年 1 月初出現了小幅流出。

MicroStrategy share movements

MicroStrategy 股票走勢

As a bellwether for institutional Bitcoin sentiment, MSTR shares serve as a key proxy. Any sustained decline in its stock performance, particularly following strong demand in Q4 2024, could reflect diminishing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among institutional investors. Such moves have previously coincided with market corrections.

作為機構比特幣情緒的風向標，MSTR 股票是關鍵指標。其股票表現的任何持續下滑，尤其是在 2024 年第四季的強勁需求之後，可能反映出機構投資者對比特幣曝險的興趣減弱。此前，此類措施與市場調整同時發生。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2025-26 價格預測

Bitcoin – Historical patterns and price analysis

比特幣 – 歷史模式與價格分析

Source: X

來源：X

The correlation between sentiment and price has historically been a reliable predictor of market cycles. At the time of writing, the NUPL-MVRV index appeared to be approaching levels that previously signaled market peaks in 2017, 2021, and mid-2024.

歷史上，情緒與價格之間的相關性一直是市場週期的可靠預測指標。截至撰寫本文時，NUPL-MVRV 指數似乎正在接近先前預示的 2017 年、2021 年和 2024 年中期市場高峰的水平。

These thresholds mark zones of heightened risk, where corrections often follow overheated conditions.

這些閾值標誌著風險較高的區域，在過熱的情況下通常會進行修正。

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

Moreover, Bitcoin’s RSI cooled to 46 on the daily chart after December’s record highs, suggesting a potential shift towards consolidation or decline.

此外，比特幣日線圖上的 RSI 在 12 月創下歷史新高後冷卻至 46，表明可能轉向盤整或下跌。

The price action near $95,000 reflects a critical resistance zone, as previous parabolic runs stalled after similar RSI drops. A failure to reclaim momentum here could pave the way for a retracement to support levels around $88,000–$90,000, aligning with broader profit-taking and declining ETF inflows.

95,000 美元附近的價格走勢反映了一個關鍵阻力區，因為先前的拋物線運行在類似的 RSI 下跌後陷入停滯。如果未能在此重拾勢頭，可能會為回調至 88,000 美元至 90,000 美元左右的支撐位鋪平道路，這與更廣泛的獲利了結和 ETF 流入量下降相一致。