比特币 (BTC) 价格预测 2024/2025/2030：市场概述、分析和预测

本周，在美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据发布后，比特币和更广泛的加密市场经历了大幅下跌。

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a sharp decline following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Speculation about BlackRock launching its own blockchain has also surfaced. Additionally, Binance’s delisting of several altcoins triggered significant market reactions.

美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据发布后，比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场经历了大幅下跌。关于贝莱德推出自己的区块链的猜测也浮出水面。此外，币安下架多种山寨币也引发了重大市场反应。

Bitcoin’s “Fakeout” Following CPI Data Release

CPI数据发布后比特币“假冒”

On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The figure was lower than the previous month, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in September, possibly by 25 basis points.

8月14日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。该数字低于上月，引发人们猜测美联储可能在 9 月份降息，幅度可能为 25 个基点。

Bitcoin initially reacted positively to the data, trading above the $60,000 level. However, this proved to be short-lived, as the price quickly reversed, dropping below $60,000 — a move known in trading circles as a “fakeout.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $58,345, reflecting a 1.95% decrease in the past 24 hours.

比特币最初对该数据做出了积极反应，交易价格高于 60,000 美元。然而，这被证明是短暂的，因为价格迅速逆转，跌破 60,000 美元——这一举动在交易界被称为“假突破”。截至撰写本文时，比特币价格为 58,345 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌 1.95%。

Despite this volatility, analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Potential catalysts for a bullish trend include anticipated rate cuts, increased inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), and favorable regulatory developments.

尽管存在这种波动，分析师仍对比特币保持积极的长期前景。看涨趋势的潜在催化剂包括预期的降息、比特币交易所交易产品（ETP）的资金流入增加以及有利的监管发展。

Institutional Investors and Wall Street Giants Reveal Spot Crypto ETF Holdings

机构投资者和华尔街巨头透露现货加密货币 ETF 持有量

This week, institutional investors disclosed their positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs through their 13-F filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Goldman Sachs, for example, holds positions in seven of the 11 available spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Its largest stake is in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with an investment valued at approximately $238.6 million.

本周，机构投资者通过向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交的 13-F 文件披露了他们在比特币和以太坊 ETF 中的头寸。例如，高盛持有美国 11 只现货比特币 ETF 中的 7 只。其最大的股份是 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)，投资价值约为 2.386 亿美元。

In addition to IBIT, Goldman Sachs has invested heavily in other Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, the bank holds $79.5 million in Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) and $56.1 million in the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), among others.

除了IBIT之外，高盛还大量投资于其他比特币ETF。值得注意的是，该银行持有富达 (Fidelity) 的比特币 ETF (FBTC) 7,950 万美元，以及景顺银河 (Invesco Galaxy) 比特币 ETF (BTCO) 5,610 万美元。

Similarly, Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street giant, also demonstrated a preference for BlackRock’s IBIT, with positions valued at $188 million. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has smaller holdings in the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

同样，华尔街另一巨头摩根士丹利也表现出对贝莱德IBIT的青睐，持仓价值1.88亿美元。此外，摩根士丹利在 Ark 21Shares 比特币 ETF (ARKB) 和 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 中持有的股份较少。

The trading firm DRW Capital also presented its significant stake in crypto ETFs, particularly focusing on Ethereum. The company’s filings indicate an allocation of over $150 million to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

交易公司 DRW Capital 还展示了其在加密 ETF 中的大量股份，特别是以太坊。该公司的文件显示，已向灰度以太坊信托基金拨款超过 1.5 亿美元。

Additionally, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) reported owning nearly 2.9 million shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) as of June 30. This position, valued at nearly $99 million, marks a significant increase from the previous quarter, where SWIB held around 2.5 million shares. Interestingly, SWIB also reduced its exposure to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust by offloading 1 million shares during the first quarter.

此外，威斯康星州投资委员会 (SWIB) 报告称，截至 6 月 30 日，其持有贝莱德现货比特币 ETF (IBIT) 近 290 万股。这一头寸价值近 9900 万美元，较上一季度大幅增加。持有约250万股。有趣的是，SWIB 还通过在第一季度抛售 100 万股来减少其对灰度比特币信托的敞口。

Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, recently noted that the second quarter of 2024 saw a notable increase in institutional ownership of Bitcoin ETFs. The 13-F filings revealed that 1,199 professional firms held investments in US spot ETFs as of June 30. This number marks an increase of 262 firms from the previous quarter.

K33 Research 高级分析师 Vetle Lunde 最近指出，2024 年第二季度比特币 ETF 的机构持有量显着增加。 13-F 文件显示，截至 6 月 30 日，有 1,199 家专业公司持有美国现货 ETF 投资。这一数字比上一季度增加了 262 家公司。

“While retail investors still hold the majority of the float, institutional investors increased their share of total AUM by 2.41 percentage points, now accounting for 21.15% in Q2,” Lunde remarked.

“虽然散户投资者仍持有大部分流通量，但机构投资者在总资产管理规模中的份额增加了 2.41 个百分点，目前在第二季度占 21.15%，”Lunde 表示。

This growth in institutional participation is significant. It indicates that large financial entities are becoming more comfortable with the risk-reward profile of crypto investments.

机构参与度的增长是显着的。这表明大型金融实体对加密货币投资的风险回报状况越来越满意。

Hydra Update Prepares Cardano for Chang Hard Fork

Hydra 更新为 Cardano 为 Chang 硬分叉做好准备

On August 9, Cardano released version 0.18.0 of its Hydra Head scaling solution. This upgrade is particularly crucial as Cardano prepares for its upcoming Chang hard fork, which aims to fully decentralize the blockchain.

8 月 9 日，Cardano 发布了 Hydra Head 扩展解决方案 0.18.0 版本。这次升级尤其重要，因为卡尔达诺正在为即将到来的 Chang 硬分叉做准备，该硬分叉旨在完全去中心化区块链。

Sebastian Nagel, a Cardano developer, emphasized that one of the key features of this update is the ability to withdraw funds from an open head without closing it. This improvement aligns with Cardano’s broader goal of transitioning into a decentralized network. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, envisions it as a global system featuring advanced governance and community-driven initiatives.

Cardano 开发者塞巴斯蒂安·纳格尔 (Sebastian Nagel) 强调，本次更新的关键功能之一是能够在不关闭头部的情况下从开放头部提取资金。这一改进符合卡尔达诺向去中心化网络转型的更广泛目标。卡尔达诺创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森 (Charles Hoskinson) 将其设想为一个具有先进治理和社区驱动举措的全球系统。

Speculation Surrounding BlackRock’s Blockchain Initiative

围绕贝莱德区块链计划的猜测

According to a report by Token Terminal, BlackRock could be exploring the launch of a proprietary blockchain similar to Coinbase’s Layer-2 network, Base. The report suggests that such a blockchain could centralize the record-keeping of BlackRock’s vast holdings, enhancing transparency, efficiency, and security. If this plan materializes, it will align with BlackRock’s broader strategy of leveraging technology to streamline its operations and offer novel solutions to its clients.

根据 Token Terminal 的一份报告，贝莱德可能正在探索推出类似于 Coinbase 的第 2 层网络 Base 的专有区块链。该报告表明，这样的区块链可以集中保存贝莱德巨额资产的记录，从而提高透明度、效率和安全性。如果该计划得以实现，它将符合贝莱德利用技术简化运营并为客户提供新颖解决方案的更广泛战略。

However, such a project would have

然而，这样的项目将有