比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測 2024/2025/2030：市場概述、分析和預測

本週，在美國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據發布後，比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場經歷了大幅下跌。

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a sharp decline following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Speculation about BlackRock launching its own blockchain has also surfaced. Additionally, Binance’s delisting of several altcoins triggered significant market reactions.

美國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據發布後，比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場經歷了大幅下跌。關於貝萊德推出自己的區塊鏈的猜測也浮出水面。此外，幣安下架多種山寨幣也引發了重大市場反應。

Bitcoin’s “Fakeout” Following CPI Data Release

CPI數據發布後比特幣“假冒”

On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The figure was lower than the previous month, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in September, possibly by 25 basis points.

8月14日，美國勞工統計局（BLS）公佈7月消費者物價指數（CPI）數據。該數字低於上月，引發人們猜測聯準會可能在 9 月降息，幅度可能為 25 個基點。

Bitcoin initially reacted positively to the data, trading above the $60,000 level. However, this proved to be short-lived, as the price quickly reversed, dropping below $60,000 — a move known in trading circles as a “fakeout.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $58,345, reflecting a 1.95% decrease in the past 24 hours.

比特幣最初對該數據做出了積極反應，交易價格高於 60,000 美元。然而，這被證明是短暫的，因為價格迅速逆轉，跌破 60,000 美元——這一舉動在交易界被稱為「假突破」。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格為 58,345 美元，過去 24 小時內下跌 1.95%。

Despite this volatility, analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Potential catalysts for a bullish trend include anticipated rate cuts, increased inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), and favorable regulatory developments.

儘管存在這種波動，分析師仍對比特幣保持積極的長期前景。看漲趨勢的潛在催化劑包括預期的降息、比特幣交易所交易產品（ETP）的資金流入增加以及有利的監管發展。

Institutional Investors and Wall Street Giants Reveal Spot Crypto ETF Holdings

機構投資人、華爾街巨頭透露現貨加密貨幣 ETF 持有量

This week, institutional investors disclosed their positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs through their 13-F filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Goldman Sachs, for example, holds positions in seven of the 11 available spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Its largest stake is in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with an investment valued at approximately $238.6 million.

本週，機構投資者透過向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 13-F 文件披露了他們在比特幣和以太坊 ETF 中的頭寸。例如，高盛持有美國 11 隻現貨比特幣 ETF 中的 7 隻。其最大的股份是 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)，投資價值約 2.386 億美元。

In addition to IBIT, Goldman Sachs has invested heavily in other Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, the bank holds $79.5 million in Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) and $56.1 million in the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), among others.

除了IBIT之外，高盛也大量投資其他比特幣ETF。值得注意的是，該銀行持有富達 (Fidelity) 的比特幣 ETF (FBTC) 7,950 萬美元，以及景順銀河 (Invesco Galaxy) 比特幣 ETF (BTCO) 5,610 萬美元。

Similarly, Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street giant, also demonstrated a preference for BlackRock’s IBIT, with positions valued at $188 million. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has smaller holdings in the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

同樣，華爾街另一巨頭摩根士丹利也表現出對貝萊德IBIT的青睞，持倉價值1.88億美元。此外，摩根士丹利在 Ark 21Shares 比特幣 ETF (ARKB) 和 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 中持有的股份較少。

The trading firm DRW Capital also presented its significant stake in crypto ETFs, particularly focusing on Ethereum. The company’s filings indicate an allocation of over $150 million to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

交易公司 DRW Capital 也展示了其在加密 ETF 中的大量股份，特別是以太坊。該公司的文件顯示，已向灰階以太坊信託基金撥款超過 1.5 億美元。

Additionally, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) reported owning nearly 2.9 million shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) as of June 30. This position, valued at nearly $99 million, marks a significant increase from the previous quarter, where SWIB held around 2.5 million shares. Interestingly, SWIB also reduced its exposure to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust by offloading 1 million shares during the first quarter.

此外，威斯康辛州投資委員會(SWIB) 報告稱，截至6 月30 日，其持有貝萊德現貨比特幣ETF (IBIT) 近290 萬股。增加。有趣的是，SWIB 還透過在第一季拋售 100 萬股來減少其對灰階比特幣信託的曝險。

Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, recently noted that the second quarter of 2024 saw a notable increase in institutional ownership of Bitcoin ETFs. The 13-F filings revealed that 1,199 professional firms held investments in US spot ETFs as of June 30. This number marks an increase of 262 firms from the previous quarter.

K33 Research 高級分析師 Vetle Lunde 最近指出，2024 年第二季比特幣 ETF 的機構持股顯著增加。 13-F 文件顯示，截至 6 月 30 日，有 1,199 家專業公司持有美國現貨 ETF 投資。

“While retail investors still hold the majority of the float, institutional investors increased their share of total AUM by 2.41 percentage points, now accounting for 21.15% in Q2,” Lunde remarked.

「雖然散戶投資者仍持有大部分流通量，但機構投資者在總資產管理規模中的份額增加了 2.41 個百分點，目前在第二季度佔 21.15%，」Lunde 表示。

This growth in institutional participation is significant. It indicates that large financial entities are becoming more comfortable with the risk-reward profile of crypto investments.

機構參與度的成長是顯著的。這顯示大型金融實體對加密貨幣投資的風險回報狀況越來越滿意。

Hydra Update Prepares Cardano for Chang Hard Fork

Hydra 更新為 Cardano 為 Chang 硬分叉做好準備

On August 9, Cardano released version 0.18.0 of its Hydra Head scaling solution. This upgrade is particularly crucial as Cardano prepares for its upcoming Chang hard fork, which aims to fully decentralize the blockchain.

8 月 9 日，Cardano 發布了 Hydra Head 擴展解決方案 0.18.0 版本。這次升級尤其重要，因為卡爾達諾正在為即將到來的 Chang 硬分叉做準備，該硬分叉旨在完全去中心化區塊鏈。

Sebastian Nagel, a Cardano developer, emphasized that one of the key features of this update is the ability to withdraw funds from an open head without closing it. This improvement aligns with Cardano’s broader goal of transitioning into a decentralized network. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, envisions it as a global system featuring advanced governance and community-driven initiatives.

Cardano 開發人員 Sebastian Nagel 強調，本次更新的關鍵功能之一是能夠從開放頭中提取資金而不關閉頭。這項改進符合卡爾達諾向去中心化網路轉型的更廣泛目標。卡爾達諾創辦人查爾斯·霍斯金森 (Charles Hoskinson) 將其設想為一個以先進治理和社區驅動舉措為特色的全球系統。

Speculation Surrounding BlackRock’s Blockchain Initiative

圍繞貝萊德區塊鏈計劃的猜測

According to a report by Token Terminal, BlackRock could be exploring the launch of a proprietary blockchain similar to Coinbase’s Layer-2 network, Base. The report suggests that such a blockchain could centralize the record-keeping of BlackRock’s vast holdings, enhancing transparency, efficiency, and security. If this plan materializes, it will align with BlackRock’s broader strategy of leveraging technology to streamline its operations and offer novel solutions to its clients.

根據 Token Terminal 的一份報告，貝萊德可能正在探索推出類似於 Coinbase 的第 2 層網路 Base 的專有區塊鏈。該報告表明，這樣的區塊鏈可以集中保存貝萊德巨額資產的記錄，從而提高透明度、效率和安全性。如果該計劃得以實現，它將符合貝萊德利用技術簡化營運並為客戶提供新穎解決方案的更廣泛策略。

However, such a project would have

然而，這樣的項目將有