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在经历了两个月的剧烈波动后,过去 30 天里,比特币 [BTC] 的价格图表出现了显着反弹。
Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a significant rebound on its price charts after 2 months of extreme volatility. In fact, since hitting a high of $70,016 in July, BTC has declined significantly, even falling to a local low of $49k.
经过两个月的剧烈波动后,比特币 [BTC] 的价格图表出现了显着反弹。事实上,自 7 月份触及 70,016 美元高点以来,BTC 已大幅下跌,甚至跌至 49,000 美元的局部低点。
However, since the Fed rate cuts a week ago, BTC has made notable gains. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,839. This marked a 10.38% hike on the monthly charts, with an extension to the bullish trend by a 4.47% hike in 24 hours.
然而,自一周前美联储降息以来,BTC 取得了显着的涨幅。截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 65,839 美元。这标志着月度图表上上涨了 10.38%,看涨趋势在 24 小时内上涨了 4.47%。
This recent surge has caught the attention of the crypto community, leaving analysts talking. One of them is Cryptoquant analyst Burak Kesmeci, who suggested that a long-term rally might sustain itself, citing the MVRV metric.
最近的上涨引起了加密货币社区的关注,分析师们纷纷议论纷纷。其中一位是 Cryptoquant 分析师 Burak Kesmeci,他引用 MVRV 指标表示,长期反弹可能会持续下去。
According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin MVRV Metric is now flashing a bullish signal again, with the MVRV pricing above its SMA 365. After analyzing the historical relationship between the MVRV and the 365-day moving average, the analyst determined that BTC usually records a rally after the MVRV rises above SMA365.
Kesmeci 表示,比特币 MVRV 指标现在再次发出看涨信号,MVRV 定价高于 SMA 365。在分析了 MVRV 与 365 天移动平均线之间的历史关系后,分析师确定 BTC 通常会出现反弹当 MVRV 升至 SMA365 以上后。
At press time, the MVRV was at 2.04, sitting above its SMA 365 at 2.02. Thus, the analyst interpreted this as a strong bullish signal, positing that bulls have the market to lose.
截至发稿时,MVRV 为 2.04,高于 SMA 365 的 2.02。因此,分析师将此解读为强烈的看涨信号,认为多头将失去市场。
When the MVRV and SMA 365 are set like this, it means that the long-term trend is strengthening. Especially as BTC’s current market value is higher than its average realized value over the past year. This upward movement is a sign of growing confidence among long-term holders and investors.
当 MVRV 和 SMA 365 如此设定时,意味着长期趋势正在走强。尤其是比特币当前的市值高于其过去一年的平均变现价值。这种上升趋势表明长期持有者和投资者信心增强。
Therefore, based on this observation, Bitcoin may be seeing higher demand, something that might be driving prices up.
因此,根据这一观察,比特币的需求可能会增加,这可能会推高价格。
While the metric highlighted by Kesmeci provided a positive outlook, the question is what do other fundamentals say?
虽然凯斯梅奇强调的指标提供了积极的前景,但问题是其他基本面怎么说?
For starters, Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply ratio registered a sustained decline over the past week. Over this period, the exchange supply ratio declined from 0.1311 to 0.1304.
首先,比特币的交易供应比率在过去一周持续下降。在此期间,交易所供应比率从 0.1311 下降至 0.1304。
This decline reflects investors’ holding behavior as they hold their assets in cold wallets, rather than on exchanges. This is a bullish signal, one which implies investors’ confidence in the future values as long-term holders expect the crypto’s price to rise.
这种下降反映了投资者的持有行为,因为他们将资产存放在冷钱包中,而不是存放在交易所。这是一个看涨信号,意味着投资者对未来价值的信心,因为长期持有者预计加密货币的价格将会上涨。
Additionally, Bitcoin’s fund flow ratio has been on an uptrend over the past week. FFR increased from 0.04 to 0.086 over the last 7 days.
此外,比特币的资金流量比率在过去一周一直呈上升趋势。过去 7 天内,FFR 从 0.04 增加至 0.086。
This is a sign of greater funds inflows into BTC. By extension, this reflects growing confidence among investors. Under this market condition, investors are more likely to buy BTC anticipating future gains.
这是更多资金流入比特币的迹象。推而广之,这反映出投资者信心的增强。在这种市场条件下,投资者更有可能因预期未来收益而购买比特币。
Finally, Bitcoin’s Short-term holder SOPR has also been rising over the past week. A rising short-term SOPR during an uptrend shows that the market is strong. Thus, although the short-term holder is selling at a profit, the demand is also high enough to absorb the selling pressure without resulting in a decline. This means the uptrend is likely to continue.
最后,比特币的短期持有者 SOPR 在过去一周也一直在上涨。上升趋势中短期 SOPR 的上升表明市场强劲。因此,尽管短期持有者卖出获利,但需求也足够高,足以吸收抛售压力,而不会导致下跌。这意味着上涨趋势可能会持续。
Simply put, BTC is experiencing a positive market sentiment and hiking investor favourability. If these market conditions hold, BTC will attempt to breach the $68,240 resistance level.
简而言之,比特币正在经历积极的市场情绪和投资者的青睐。如果这些市场条件保持不变,BTC 将尝试突破 68,240 美元的阻力位。
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