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在經歷了兩個月的劇烈波動後,過去 30 天裡,比特幣 [BTC] 的價格圖表出現了顯著反彈。
Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a significant rebound on its price charts after 2 months of extreme volatility. In fact, since hitting a high of $70,016 in July, BTC has declined significantly, even falling to a local low of $49k.
經過兩個月的劇烈波動後,比特幣 [BTC] 的價格圖表出現了顯著反彈。事實上,自 7 月觸及 70,016 美元高點以來,BTC 已大幅下跌,甚至跌至 49,000 美元的局部低點。
However, since the Fed rate cuts a week ago, BTC has made notable gains. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,839. This marked a 10.38% hike on the monthly charts, with an extension to the bullish trend by a 4.47% hike in 24 hours.
然而,自從一週前聯準會降息以來,BTC 取得了顯著的漲幅。截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格為 65,839 美元。這標誌著月線圖上上漲了 10.38%,看漲趨勢在 24 小時內上漲了 4.47%。
This recent surge has caught the attention of the crypto community, leaving analysts talking. One of them is Cryptoquant analyst Burak Kesmeci, who suggested that a long-term rally might sustain itself, citing the MVRV metric.
最近的上漲引起了加密貨幣社群的關注,分析師們紛紛議論紛紛。其中一位是 Cryptoquant 分析師 Burak Kesmeci,他引用 MVRV 指標表示,長期反彈可能會持續下去。
According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin MVRV Metric is now flashing a bullish signal again, with the MVRV pricing above its SMA 365. After analyzing the historical relationship between the MVRV and the 365-day moving average, the analyst determined that BTC usually records a rally after the MVRV rises above SMA365.
Kesmeci 表示,比特幣 MVRV 指標現在再次發出看漲訊號,MVRV 定價高於 SMA 365。以上後。
At press time, the MVRV was at 2.04, sitting above its SMA 365 at 2.02. Thus, the analyst interpreted this as a strong bullish signal, positing that bulls have the market to lose.
截至發稿時,MVRV 為 2.04,高於 SMA 365 的 2.02。因此,分析師將此解讀為強烈的看漲訊號,認為多頭將失去市場。
When the MVRV and SMA 365 are set like this, it means that the long-term trend is strengthening. Especially as BTC’s current market value is higher than its average realized value over the past year. This upward movement is a sign of growing confidence among long-term holders and investors.
當 MVRV 和 SMA 365 如此設定時,意味著長期趨勢正在走強。尤其是比特幣當前的市值高於其過去一年的平均變現價值。這種上升趨勢顯示長期持有者和投資者信心增強。
Therefore, based on this observation, Bitcoin may be seeing higher demand, something that might be driving prices up.
因此,根據這一觀察,比特幣的需求可能會增加,這可能會推高價格。
While the metric highlighted by Kesmeci provided a positive outlook, the question is what do other fundamentals say?
雖然凱斯梅奇強調的指標提供了正面的前景,但問題是其他基本面怎麼說?
For starters, Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply ratio registered a sustained decline over the past week. Over this period, the exchange supply ratio declined from 0.1311 to 0.1304.
首先,比特幣的交易供應比率在過去一週持續下降。在此期間,交易所供應比率從 0.1311 下降至 0.1304。
This decline reflects investors’ holding behavior as they hold their assets in cold wallets, rather than on exchanges. This is a bullish signal, one which implies investors’ confidence in the future values as long-term holders expect the crypto’s price to rise.
這種下降反映了投資者的持有行為,因為他們將資產存放在冷錢包中,而不是存放在交易所。這是一個看漲訊號,意味著投資者對未來價值的信心,因為長期持有者預期加密貨幣的價格將會上漲。
Additionally, Bitcoin’s fund flow ratio has been on an uptrend over the past week. FFR increased from 0.04 to 0.086 over the last 7 days.
此外,比特幣的資金流量比率在過去一周一直呈上升趨勢。過去 7 天內,FFR 從 0.04 增加至 0.086。
This is a sign of greater funds inflows into BTC. By extension, this reflects growing confidence among investors. Under this market condition, investors are more likely to buy BTC anticipating future gains.
這是更多資金流入比特幣的跡象。推而廣之,這反映出投資人信心的增強。在這種市場條件下,投資者更有可能因預期未來收益而購買比特幣。
Finally, Bitcoin’s Short-term holder SOPR has also been rising over the past week. A rising short-term SOPR during an uptrend shows that the market is strong. Thus, although the short-term holder is selling at a profit, the demand is also high enough to absorb the selling pressure without resulting in a decline. This means the uptrend is likely to continue.
最後,比特幣的短期持有者 SOPR 在過去一周也一直在上漲。在上升趨勢中短期 SOPR 上升表示市場強勁。因此,儘管短期持有者賣出獲利,但需求也足夠高,足以吸收拋售壓力,而不會導致下跌。這意味著上漲趨勢可能會持續。
Simply put, BTC is experiencing a positive market sentiment and hiking investor favourability. If these market conditions hold, BTC will attempt to breach the $68,240 resistance level.
簡而言之,比特幣正在經歷積極的市場情緒和投資者的青睞。如果這些市場條件保持不變,BTC 將嘗試突破 68,240 美元的阻力位。
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