比特币（BTC）价格预测：保持关键支持

在过去的24小时内，比特币经历了大量的价格波动，在回溯之前短暂超过了$ 100000。

Bitcoin experienced wild price swings within the last 24 hours, briefly touching the $100,000 mark before retracing. This sudden drop showcases the ongoing market uncertainty, with traders reacting to short-term volatility.

比特币在过去24小时内经历了野生价格波动，在回溯之前短暂触摸了100,000美元的大关。这种突然的下降展示了正在进行的市场不确定性，而交易员对短期波动作出了反应。

Despite the short-term price movements, a broader analysis reveals a tale of long-term stability, largely driven by mature investors holding onto their positions. The Realized HODL (RHODL) ratio since Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (ATH) sits at 23%. While new demand remains significant in this cycle, the wealth held in coins older than three months is much lower than in previous cycles. This suggests that new demand inflows have been occurring in bursts rather than in a sustained pattern.

尽管短期价格变动，但更广泛的分析揭示了一个长期稳定的故事，这在很大程度上是由成熟的投资者坚持自己的职位的推动。自比特币最近有史以来高（ATH）以来，实现的HODL（Rhodl）比率为23％。尽管在这个周期中，新需求仍然很大，但三个月以上硬币的财富远低于以前的周期。这表明新需求流入已经以爆发而不是持续的模式发生。

Interestingly, Bitcoin has taken a different approach compared to previous market cycles. Typically, one year after the first ATH break, the demand would reach levels seen at the initial ATH. However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin first reached a new ATH in March 2024, and the demand is yet to match those seen in past rallies. This deviation raises questions about how the rest of the cycle will unfold.

有趣的是，与以前的市场周期相比，比特币采取了不同的方法。通常，在第一次ATH休息一年后，需求将达到最初的ATH水平。但是，在当前的周期中，比特币在2024年3月首次达到了一个新的ATH，需求尚未与过去的集会中看到的需求相匹配。这种偏差提出了有关周期其余部分将如何展开的问题。

Another key observation is the lower realized volatility in this cycle. On a three-month rolling window, the realized volatility remains below 50%. In contrast, past bull runs saw volatility levels exceeding 80% to 100%. This reduction in volatility suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is more structured, with mature investors contributing to a more stable market environment.

另一个关键观察结果是该周期中实现的波动率较低。在三个月的滚动窗口上，实现的波动率仍低于50％。相比之下，过去的公牛跑步率超过80％至100％。波动性的降低表明，比特币的价格行动更加结构化，成熟的投资者为更稳定的市场环境做出了贡献。

The 2023-25 cycle has followed a stair-stepping pattern, with price rallies followed by consolidation periods. Unlike previous cycles, which were characterized by extreme swings, Bitcoin’s current trajectory exhibits signs of gradual price increases. This trend supports a more controlled bull market, reducing the risk of extreme crashes.

2023-25周期遵循了楼梯式的模式，价格集会随后是合并期。与以前的周期具有极端波动的特征不同，比特币的当前轨迹表现出逐渐价格上涨的迹象。这种趋势支持更具控制的牛市，从而降低了极端崩溃的风险。

Immediate BTC Price Analysis

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Zooming in on the shorter time frame, Bitcoin seems to be facing resistance at the $95,869 level. If BTC fails to hold this support, it may drop toward $93,625, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels.

缩放时间较短的时间范围，比特币似乎面临着95,869美元的电阻。如果BTC未能持有此支持，则可能会根据斐波那契回回的水平降至93,625美元。

However, if Bitcoin manages to bounce off $95,869, it could attempt to reclaim the $100,000 level. Successfully breaching this psychological barrier would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially setting the stage for a renewed uptrend.

但是，如果比特币设法摆脱95,869美元，它可能会试图恢复100,000美元的水平。成功违反这种心理障碍将使看跌的前景无效，这有可能为重新上升的趋势奠定基础。