Vaneck Projects Solana（Sol）价格可能在2025年底之前达到520美元

该公司将这一价格上涨归因于Solana在智能合同平台（SCP）领域的市场份额不断增加，更广泛的宏观经济因素

Solana (SOL) price could hit as high as $520 by the end of 2025, according to new research from VanEck.

Vaneck的新研究显示，到2025年底，Solana（Sol）价格可能高达520美元。

The firm attributes this price surge to Solana’s increasing market share in the smart contract platform (SCP) sector and broader macroeconomic factors such as M2 money supply growth.

该公司将这一价格上涨归因于Solana在智能合同平台（SCP）领域的市场份额不断增加，以及更广泛的宏观经济因素，例如M2货币供应增长。

According to VanEck’s research team, Solana currently holds approximately 15% of the total SCP market. However, they anticipate this share will grow to 22% by year-end, driven by developer activity, decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, and rising user engagement.

根据Vaneck的研究团队，Solana目前占SCP总市场的约15％。但是，他们预计这一份额将随着开发人员活动，分散交易（DEX）和用户参与度的增加而增长到年底的22％。

This expansion, coupled with an estimated total SCP market cap of $1.1 trillion, could push Solana’s valuation to approximately $250 billion.

这种扩张，再加上SCP市值为11万亿美元，可能会将Solana的估值提高到约2500亿美元。

“Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens,” VanEck analysts stated in their report.

Vaneck分析师在其报告中说：“使用自动回报（AR）预测模型，我们估计Solana的市值将达到约250B美元，这意味着基于〜4.86亿美元浮动令牌的SOL价格为520美元。”

One of the reasons to back this prediction is the growth of M2 money supply in the U.S. M2 money supply refers to cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Traditionally, expansion in crypto markets has gone hand in hand with growth in M2, since higher liquidity encourages investments in risk assets.

支持这一预测的原因之一是美国M2货币供应中M2货币供应的增长是指现金，支票存款和易于转换的近货币资产。传统上，加密市场的扩张与M2的增长息息相关，因为较高的流动性鼓励对风险资产进行投资。

We at VanEck project that the M2 money supply will increase from $21.5 trillion presently to $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025, keeping the annualized growth rate steady at 3.2%. For such a dramatic change in liquidity, demand for digital assets could increase sharply, including for Solana.

我们在Vaneck项目中，M2货币供应将从目前的21.5万亿美元增加到2025年底的22.3万亿美元，使年增长率的增长率保持在3.2％。对于这种流动性的巨大变化，对数字资产的需求可能会急剧增加，包括Solana。

Solana’s expanding ecosystem has played a crucial role in its bullish outlook. Activity on the blockchain is increasing, partly because of the memecoin boom. Mainstream users are flocking to projects such as TRUMP and MELANIA, driving up engagement on the network.

索拉纳（Solana）不断扩大的生态系统在看涨的前景中发挥了至关重要的作用。区块链上的活动正在增加，部分原因是Memecoin繁荣。主流用户涌向特朗普和梅拉尼亚等项目，推动网络参与度。

Revenue for Solana ecosystem applications surged 213% in Q4 2024 to $840 million alone, demonstrating increasing adoption of the protocol.

Solana生态系统应用的收入在第4季度的2024年飙升至213％，仅为8.4亿美元，表明该协议的采用量增加。

Meanwhile, the DeFi part of Solana is also not staying behind. According to DeFiLlama, right now, the total value locked within Solana-based DeFi protocols stands at $19.54 billion. All this is rendering the network a lot of strong competitors in the wider DeFi space and further strengthening its market position.

同时，Solana的规定也没有留在后面。根据Defillama的说法，目前，基于Solana的DEFI协议中锁定的总价值为195.4亿美元。所有这些都是在更广泛的Defi领域中渲染了许多强大的竞争对手，并进一步加强了其市场地位。

The prospect of a Solana-based exchange-traded fund in the United States may also act as one big catalyst for institutional investors. VanEck is among the firms that have filed applications with the SEC for a Solana ETF. While past attempts were rejected, recent regulatory moves suggest a changing attitude toward digital asset investment products.

在美国，基于索拉纳的交易所贸易基金的前景也可能是机构投资者的一大催化剂。 Vaneck是已向SEC申请Solana ETF的公司之一。尽管过去的尝试被拒绝，但最近的监管举动表明对数字资产投资产品的态度不断变化。

Today BlackRock chairman and CEO Larry Fink said he thinks a Solana ETF will be approved as soon as this month. That will be very bullish for the SOL price.

今天，贝莱德董事长兼首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）表示，他认为本月将立即获得Solana ETF的批准。对于Sol价格，这将非常看好。

Cboe BZX has refiled the 19b-4 application for multiple Solana ETF proposals, including those from VanEck, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21Shares. If approved, an ETF could introduce significant institutional capital into the Solana ecosystem, further supporting its price growth.

CBOE BZX已将19b-4申请申请，包括来自Vaneck，Canary Capital，Bitwise和21shares的索赔。如果获得批准，ETF可以将大量的机构资本引入Solana生态系统，从而进一步支持其价格增长。

Despite its strong fundamentals, Solana’s path to $520 is not without obstacles. Market-wide corrections, regulatory scrutiny, and broader economic conditions could impact investor sentiment. Recently, Solana’s price experienced a 4.6% decline, trading at around $190 following Bitcoin’s drop below $98,000. For VanEck’s forecast to materialize, SOL would need to rally by over 170% from its current price.

尽管具有强大的基本原理，但Solana的520美元道路并非没有障碍。整个市场的纠正，监管审查和更广泛的经济状况可能会影响投资者的情绪。最近，索拉纳（Solana）的价格下跌了4.6％，在比特币低于98,000美元以下的比特币下跌约190美元。为了使Vaneck的预测实现，SOL将需要从目前的价格中提高170％以上。

Additionally, concerns have emerged regarding validator rewards under the SIMD-0096 proposal. The new structure, set to take effect in March 2025, will allow validators to keep 100% of priority fees, potentially reducing incentives for stakers. While this change could boost network security, it has raised questions about long-term staking participation.

此外，根据SIMD-0096提案的验证者奖励出现了担忧。新结构将于2025年3月生效，将使验证者能够保留100％的优先费用，从而减少对Stakers的激励措施。尽管这种变化可以提高网络安全性，但它提出了有关长期参与的问题。

VanEck’s prediction of a $520 price target for Solana by the end of 2025 is based on strong market fundamentals, a Solana Spot ETF approval, increasing adoption, and macroeconomic trends. However, achieving this milestone will require sustained growth in network activity, continued institutional interest, and favorable market conditions. As the cryptocurrency sector evolves, Solana remains a key player to watch in the coming months.

Vaneck在2025年底之前预测Solana的520美元目标目标是基于强大的市场基础，Solana Spot ETF批准，采用的增加和宏观经济趋势。但是，实现这一里程碑将需要网络活动，持续的机构利益和有利的市场状况的持续增长。随着加密货币行业的发展，Solana仍然是未来几个月观看的关键参与者。