Vaneck Projects Solana（Sol）價格可能在2025年底之前達到520美元

該公司將這一價格上漲歸因於Solana在智能合同平台（SCP）領域的市場份額不斷增加，更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素

Solana (SOL) price could hit as high as $520 by the end of 2025, according to new research from VanEck.

Vaneck的新研究顯示，到2025年底，Solana（Sol）價格可能高達520美元。

The firm attributes this price surge to Solana’s increasing market share in the smart contract platform (SCP) sector and broader macroeconomic factors such as M2 money supply growth.

該公司將這一價格上漲歸因於Solana在智能合同平台（SCP）領域的市場份額不斷增加，以及更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素，例如M2貨幣供應增長。

According to VanEck’s research team, Solana currently holds approximately 15% of the total SCP market. However, they anticipate this share will grow to 22% by year-end, driven by developer activity, decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, and rising user engagement.

根據Vaneck的研究團隊，Solana目前佔SCP總市場的約15％。但是，他們預計這一份額將隨著開發人員活動，分散交易（DEX）和用戶參與度的增加而增長到年底的22％。

This expansion, coupled with an estimated total SCP market cap of $1.1 trillion, could push Solana’s valuation to approximately $250 billion.

這種擴張，再加上SCP市值為11萬億美元，可能會將Solana的估值提高到約2500億美元。

“Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens,” VanEck analysts stated in their report.

Vaneck分析師在其報告中說：“使用自動回報（AR）預測模型，我們估計Solana的市值將達到約250B美元，這意味著基於〜4.86億美元浮動令牌的SOL價格為520美元。”

One of the reasons to back this prediction is the growth of M2 money supply in the U.S. M2 money supply refers to cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Traditionally, expansion in crypto markets has gone hand in hand with growth in M2, since higher liquidity encourages investments in risk assets.

支持這一預測的原因之一是美國M2貨幣供應中M2貨幣供應的增長是指現金，支票存款和易於轉換的近貨幣資產。傳統上，加密市場的擴張與M2的增長息息相關，因為較高的流動性鼓勵對風險資產進行投資。

We at VanEck project that the M2 money supply will increase from $21.5 trillion presently to $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025, keeping the annualized growth rate steady at 3.2%. For such a dramatic change in liquidity, demand for digital assets could increase sharply, including for Solana.

我們在Vaneck項目中，M2貨幣供應將從目前的21.5萬億美元增加到2025年底的22.3萬億美元，使年增長率的增長率保持在3.2％。對於這種流動性的巨大變化，對數字資產的需求可能會急劇增加，包括Solana。

Solana’s expanding ecosystem has played a crucial role in its bullish outlook. Activity on the blockchain is increasing, partly because of the memecoin boom. Mainstream users are flocking to projects such as TRUMP and MELANIA, driving up engagement on the network.

索拉納（Solana）不斷擴大的生態系統在看漲的前景中發揮了至關重要的作用。區塊鏈上的活動正在增加，部分原因是Memecoin繁榮。主流用戶湧向特朗普和梅拉尼亞等項目，推動網絡參與度。

Revenue for Solana ecosystem applications surged 213% in Q4 2024 to $840 million alone, demonstrating increasing adoption of the protocol.

Solana生態系統應用的收入在第4季度的2024年飆升至213％，僅為8.4億美元，表明該協議的採用量增加。

Meanwhile, the DeFi part of Solana is also not staying behind. According to DeFiLlama, right now, the total value locked within Solana-based DeFi protocols stands at $19.54 billion. All this is rendering the network a lot of strong competitors in the wider DeFi space and further strengthening its market position.

同時，Solana的規定也沒有留在後面。根據Defillama的說法，目前，基於Solana的DEFI協議中鎖定的總價值為195.4億美元。所有這些都是在更廣泛的Defi領域中渲染了許多強大的競爭對手，並進一步加強了其市場地位。

The prospect of a Solana-based exchange-traded fund in the United States may also act as one big catalyst for institutional investors. VanEck is among the firms that have filed applications with the SEC for a Solana ETF. While past attempts were rejected, recent regulatory moves suggest a changing attitude toward digital asset investment products.

在美國，基於索拉納的交易所貿易基金的前景也可能是機構投資者的一大催化劑。 Vaneck是已向SEC申請Solana ETF的公司之一。儘管過去的嘗試被拒絕，但最近的監管舉動表明對數字資產投資產品的態度不斷變化。

Today BlackRock chairman and CEO Larry Fink said he thinks a Solana ETF will be approved as soon as this month. That will be very bullish for the SOL price.

今天，貝萊德董事長兼首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）表示，他認為本月將立即獲得Solana ETF的批准。對於Sol價格，這將非常看好。

Cboe BZX has refiled the 19b-4 application for multiple Solana ETF proposals, including those from VanEck, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21Shares. If approved, an ETF could introduce significant institutional capital into the Solana ecosystem, further supporting its price growth.

CBOE BZX已將19b-4申請申請，包括來自Vaneck，Canary Capital，Bitwise和21shares的索賠。如果獲得批准，ETF可以將大量的機構資本引入Solana生態系統，從而進一步支持其價格增長。

Despite its strong fundamentals, Solana’s path to $520 is not without obstacles. Market-wide corrections, regulatory scrutiny, and broader economic conditions could impact investor sentiment. Recently, Solana’s price experienced a 4.6% decline, trading at around $190 following Bitcoin’s drop below $98,000. For VanEck’s forecast to materialize, SOL would need to rally by over 170% from its current price.

儘管具有強大的基本原理，但Solana的520美元道路並非沒有障礙。整個市場的糾正，監管審查和更廣泛的經濟狀況可能會影響投資者的情緒。最近，索拉納（Solana）的價格下跌了4.6％，在比特幣低於98,000美元以下的比特幣下跌約190美元。為了使Vaneck的預測實現，SOL將需要從目前的價格中提高170％以上。

Additionally, concerns have emerged regarding validator rewards under the SIMD-0096 proposal. The new structure, set to take effect in March 2025, will allow validators to keep 100% of priority fees, potentially reducing incentives for stakers. While this change could boost network security, it has raised questions about long-term staking participation.

此外，根據SIMD-0096提案的驗證者獎勵出現了擔憂。新結構將於2025年3月生效，將使驗證者能夠保留100％的優先費用，從而減少對Stakers的激勵措施。儘管這種變化可以提高網絡安全性，但它提出了有關長期參與的問題。

VanEck’s prediction of a $520 price target for Solana by the end of 2025 is based on strong market fundamentals, a Solana Spot ETF approval, increasing adoption, and macroeconomic trends. However, achieving this milestone will require sustained growth in network activity, continued institutional interest, and favorable market conditions. As the cryptocurrency sector evolves, Solana remains a key player to watch in the coming months.

Vaneck在2025年底之前預測Solana的520美元目標目標是基於強大的市場基礎，Solana Spot ETF批准，採用的增加和宏觀經濟趨勢。但是，實現這一里程碑將需要網絡活動，持續的機構利益和有利的市場狀況的持續增長。隨著加密貨幣行業的發展，Solana仍然是未來幾個月觀看的關鍵參與者。