比特幣（BTC）價格預測：保持關鍵支持

在過去的24小時內，比特幣經歷了大量的價格波動，在回溯之前短暫超過了$ 100000。

Bitcoin experienced wild price swings within the last 24 hours, briefly touching the $100,000 mark before retracing. This sudden drop showcases the ongoing market uncertainty, with traders reacting to short-term volatility.

比特幣在過去24小時內經歷了野生價格波動，在回溯之前短暫觸摸了100,000美元的大關。這種突然的下降展示了正在進行的市場不確定性，而交易員對短期波動作出了反應。

Despite the short-term price movements, a broader analysis reveals a tale of long-term stability, largely driven by mature investors holding onto their positions. The Realized HODL (RHODL) ratio since Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (ATH) sits at 23%. While new demand remains significant in this cycle, the wealth held in coins older than three months is much lower than in previous cycles. This suggests that new demand inflows have been occurring in bursts rather than in a sustained pattern.

儘管短期價格變動，但更廣泛的分析揭示了一個長期穩定的故事，這在很大程度上是由成熟的投資者堅持自己的職位的推動。自比特幣最近有史以來高（ATH）以來，實現的HODL（Rhodl）比率為23％。儘管在這個週期中，新需求仍然很大，但三個月以上硬幣的財富遠低於以前的周期。這表明新需求流入已經以爆發而不是持續的模式發生。

Interestingly, Bitcoin has taken a different approach compared to previous market cycles. Typically, one year after the first ATH break, the demand would reach levels seen at the initial ATH. However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin first reached a new ATH in March 2024, and the demand is yet to match those seen in past rallies. This deviation raises questions about how the rest of the cycle will unfold.

有趣的是，與以前的市場週期相比，比特幣採取了不同的方法。通常，在第一次ATH休息一年後，需求將達到最初的ATH水平。但是，在當前的周期中，比特幣在2024年3月首次達到了一個新的ATH，需求尚未與過去的集會中看到的需求相匹配。這種偏差提出了有關週期其餘部分將如何展開的問題。

Another key observation is the lower realized volatility in this cycle. On a three-month rolling window, the realized volatility remains below 50%. In contrast, past bull runs saw volatility levels exceeding 80% to 100%. This reduction in volatility suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is more structured, with mature investors contributing to a more stable market environment.

另一個關鍵觀察結果是該週期中實現的波動率較低。在三個月的滾動窗口上，實現的波動率仍低於50％。相比之下，過去的公牛跑步率超過80％至100％。波動性的降低表明，比特幣的價格行動更加結構化，成熟的投資者為更穩定的市場環境做出了貢獻。

The 2023-25 cycle has followed a stair-stepping pattern, with price rallies followed by consolidation periods. Unlike previous cycles, which were characterized by extreme swings, Bitcoin’s current trajectory exhibits signs of gradual price increases. This trend supports a more controlled bull market, reducing the risk of extreme crashes.

2023-25週期遵循了樓梯式的模式，價格集會隨後是合併期。與以前的周期具有極端波動的特徵不同，比特幣的當前軌跡表現出逐漸價格上漲的跡象。這種趨勢支持更具控制的牛市，從而降低了極端崩潰的風險。

Immediate BTC Price Analysis

立即進行BTC價格分析

Zooming in on the shorter time frame, Bitcoin seems to be facing resistance at the $95,869 level. If BTC fails to hold this support, it may drop toward $93,625, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels.

縮放時間較短的時間範圍，比特幣似乎面臨著95,869美元的電阻。如果BTC未能持有此支持，則可能會根據斐波那契回回的水平降至93,625美元。

However, if Bitcoin manages to bounce off $95,869, it could attempt to reclaim the $100,000 level. Successfully breaching this psychological barrier would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially setting the stage for a renewed uptrend.

但是，如果比特幣設法擺脫95,869美元，它可能會試圖恢復100,000美元的水平。成功違反這種心理障礙將使看跌的前景無效，這有可能為重新上升的趨勢奠定基礎。