比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：随着 BTC 今天达到新的 ATH，黄金十字引发了 FOMO

日线图上，比特币突破100日和200日移动均线，巩固了其看涨轨迹。

Bitcoin’s price soared to a new all-time high on Monday, continuing its relentless rally amid bullish technical signals and strong buying interest from large investors. As the world’s leading cryptocurrency approached the highly anticipated $100,000 milestone, key metrics and on-chain data provide insights into the market dynamics and what to expect next.

周一，比特币价格飙升至历史新高，在看涨的技术信号和大型投资者的强劲购买兴趣下继续强劲上涨。随着世界领先的加密货币接近备受期待的 100,000 美元里程碑，关键指标和链上数据提供了对市场动态和下一步预期的见解。

1- Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Golden Cross Sparks FOMO

1-比特币技术分析：金十字引发 FOMO

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s breakout above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages has solidified its bullish trajectory. The recent formation of a Golden Cross—where the 100-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average—has sparked fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors.

日线图上，比特币突破100日和200日移动均线，巩固了其看涨轨迹。最近形成的金十字（即 100 日移动平均线穿越 200 日移动平均线）引发了投资者的错失恐惧症 (FOMO)。

This technical indicator signals a long-term bullish trend, typically indicating sustained buying pressure and optimism in the market. As a result, FOMO has gripped investors, leading to a buying frenzy and pushing Bitcoin price to new highs.

该技术指标预示着长期看涨趋势，通常表明市场持续的购买压力和乐观情绪。因此，“FOMO”吸引了投资者，引发了购买狂潮，并将比特币价格推至新高。

However, experts caution that this rapid ascent may trigger a corrective retracement. Fibonacci retracement levels between $74K and $70K are seen as critical support zones for profit-taking and re-entry opportunities. Meanwhile, short-term consolidation is expected near $90K as Bitcoin tests the upper boundary of its bullish price channel.

然而，专家警告称，这种快速上涨可能会引发修正性回调。 74,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间的斐波那契回撤位被视为获利了结和重新入场机会的关键支撑区域。与此同时，随着比特币测试其看涨价格通道的上限，预计短期盘整将接近 9 万美元。

2- Whale Activity and Market Sentiment

2-鲸鱼活动和市场情绪

Whale Transactions

鲸鱼交易

Recent data from Arkham’s on-chain analytics reveals intensified whale activity. Notable transactions include:

Arkham 链上分析的最新数据显示鲸鱼活动加剧。值得注意的交易包括：

At 09:05 UTC, an unknown wallet moved 1,000 BTC ($74 million) from Coinbase.

世界标准时间 09:05，一个未知钱包从 Coinbase 转移了 1,000 BTC（7,400 万美元）。

Later, another unknown wallet transferred 2,000 BTC ($148 million) from Binance.

随后，另一个不知名的钱包从币安转移了 2,000 BTC（1.48 亿美元）。

Finally, an on-chain observer noted a massive over-the-counter (OTC) trade involving 10,000 BTC (around $740 million) being sold in a single transaction.

最后，一位链上观察者指出，一笔大规模场外交易（OTC）涉及 10,000 BTC（约 7.4 亿美元）。

These large transactions, especially from exchanges, indicate that whales or institutions are actively shifting their crypto holdings. While the precise nature of these movements is unknown, they suggest substantial buying and selling activity in the market.

这些大额交易，尤其是来自交易所的交易，表明鲸鱼或机构正在积极转移其加密货币持有量。虽然这些变动的确切性质尚不清楚，但它们表明市场上存在大量买卖活动。

Miners Position and Selling Pressure

矿工头寸和抛售压力

On-chain analysis shows that miners—key holders of Bitcoin supply—have increased selling activity. The Miners Position Index (MPI) has surged past the critical level of 2, signaling intensified selling pressure.

链上分析显示，矿工（比特币供应的主要持有者）增加了抛售活动。矿工头寸指数 (MPI) 已飙升至 2 的关键水平，表明抛售压力加剧。

This metric measures the realized net change in miner positions, indicating their selling or hodling behavior. Higher MPI values typically coincide with miner selling activity, which could lead to short-term corrections.

该指标衡量矿工头寸已实现的净变化，表明他们的出售或持有行为。较高的 MPI 值通常与矿商的抛售活动同时发生，这可能会导致短期调整。

However, despite the selling pressure, the market’s strong buy-side support continues to absorb the selling pressure, maintaining the bullish trend.

然而，尽管面临抛售压力，市场强劲的买方支撑继续吸收抛售压力，维持看涨趋势。

3- As Bitcoin Price Reaches A New ATH Today, What's NEXT?

3- 随着比特币价格今天达到新的 ATH，接下来会发生什么？

Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?

比特币会达到 10 万美元吗？

As Bitcoin approaches the $100K milestone, bullish options bets on platforms like Deribit showcase strong market confidence. Call options for December 31 are heavily concentrated at the $100,000 strike price, indicating bullish sentiment among options traders.

随着比特币接近 10 万美元的里程碑，Deribit 等平台上的看涨期权押注显示出强大的市场信心。 12 月 31 日的看涨期权主要集中在 100,000 美元的执行价，表明期权交易者的看涨情绪。

However, analysts warn that much of the good news is already priced in. A potential market breather or minor correction could pave the way for more sustainable growth in 2022.

然而，分析师警告称，大部分好消息已经被消化。市场潜在的喘息或小幅调整可能为 2022 年更可持续的增长铺平道路。

Risks and Considerations

风险和注意事项

While Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, external factors such as regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic shifts could influence its trajectory. Investors are advised to approach with caution, avoiding impulsive decisions driven by FOMO.

尽管比特币的基本面依然强劲，但监管不确定性和宏观经济变化等外部因素可能会影响其发展轨迹。建议投资者谨慎行事，避免因“FOMO”而做出冲动决定。

Bitcoin’s historic ATH marks a significant milestone, fueled by favorable macroeconomic conditions, technical indicators, and whale activity. As the crypto market evolves, Bitcoin’s dominance and influence continue to grow. While the path to $100K seems plausible, potential corrections could provide strategic entry points for investors.

在有利的宏观经济条件、技术指标和鲸鱼活动的推动下，比特币历史性的 ATH 标志着一个重要的里程碑。随着加密货币市场的发展，比特币的主导地位和影响力不断增长。虽然通往 10 万美元的道路似乎可行，但潜在的调整可能为投资者提供战略切入点。