比特币（BTC）价格预测：这是倾斜还是深层崩溃的开始？

在今年早些时候达到顶峰之后，比特币的价格一直在努力恢复其看涨势头。截至2025年3月29日，BTC

Bitcoin price has been struggling to reclaim its bullish momentum after peaking earlier this year. As of March 29, 2025, BTC price is trading around $84,122, showing signs of weakness following a period of consolidation.

在今年早些时候达到顶峰之后，比特币的价格一直在努力恢复其看涨势头。截至2025年3月29日，BTC价格的交易约为84,122美元，显示了一段时间后的弱点迹象。

With investors anxiously eyeing potential downside levels, one burning question dominates the crypto space: Will Bitcoin crash to $25,000? This analysis decodes the current market structure, moving averages, RSI signals, and price action patterns to offer a realistic outlook for Bitcoin in the days ahead.

由于投资者焦急地关注潜在的下行水平，一个燃烧的问题主导着加密货币空间：比特币会崩溃到25,000美元吗？该分析解析了当前的市场结构，平均移动，RSI信号和价格动作模式，以在未来的日子提供现实的比特币前景。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC Price Losing Momentum After Its 2025 Rally?

比特币价格预测：BTC价格在2025年集会之后是否损失了动力？

Looking at the daily chart, it’s evident that Bitcoin’s euphoric rally from late 2024 into early 2025 has faded significantly. After reaching highs near $110,000, the price began a series of lower highs and lower lows—a classic signal of a weakening trend.

从2024年末到2025年初的比特币的欣快集会显然已经大大消失了。在达到110,000美元的高点之后，价格开始了一系列的下层和较低的低点，这是趋势疲软的经典信号。

What’s more concerning is that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim its 50-day simple moving average (currently near $89,112), which now acts as dynamic resistance. The 20-day SMA has also crossed below the 50-day, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

更令人担忧的是，比特币未能收回其50天简单的移动平均线（目前接近89,112美元），现在是动态阻力。 20天的SMA也越过50天以下，表明短期看跌压力。

Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be attributed in large part to rising global trade tensions, which have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into global financial markets. The U.S. government’s decision on March 25th to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports and other goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has intensified fears of a looming global economic slowdown.

比特币最近的价格下跌很大程度上可以归因于全球贸易紧张局势的上升，这些贸易紧张局势已向全球金融市场注入了新的不确定性。美国政府于3月25日决定对加拿大，墨西哥和中国的汽车进口和其他商品征收25％的关税，这加剧了人们对全球经济放缓的迫在眉睫的恐惧。

As a result, investor sentiment has soured across risk-on assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500’s 1.85% drop since the announcement is a clear indication that traditional markets are also feeling the heat, and Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-volatility speculative asset—has not been spared.

结果，投资者的情绪在包括股票和加密货币在内的风险符合资产中造成了恶化。标准普尔500指数的1.85％下降，因为宣布这一消息清楚地表明，传统市场也感到热火，而比特币（通常被视为高挥发性投机资产）尚未幸免。

As protectionist measures ramp up and retaliatory trade actions loom, investors may continue to shift capital into safer, less volatile assets, causing continued selling pressure on BTC in the near term. If these macroeconomic headwinds persist without resolution, Bitcoin could struggle to find support and potentially revisit much lower levels, possibly even approaching the $70,000–$60,000 range in the coming weeks.

随着贸易保护主义者的措施加剧和报复性贸易行动的迫在眉睫，投资者可能会继续将资本转移到更安全的，较少的波动性资产中，从而在近期内继续销售BTC的压力。如果这些宏观经济的逆风在没有解决方案的情况下坚持下去，那么比特币可能会难以找到支持并可能重新审视较低的水平，甚至可能在接下来的几周内接近70,000至60,000美元的范围。

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Are the Moving Averages Signaling a Major Breakdown?

移动平均值是否标志着重大崩溃？

Yes, and here’s why it matters. The 100-day SMA at $93,885 and the 200-day SMA around $85,713 are now tightly compressing near the current price zone.

是的，这就是为什么它很重要。 100天的SMA为$ 93,885和200天的SMA左右$ 85,713现在在当前价格区附近紧迫。

Historically, when price battles the 200-day SMA from below and fails to hold, it often results in accelerated declines. If Bitcoin price decisively breaks below the 200-day SMA and holds under $83,000, that would open the gates toward much lower levels, triggering panic selling across retail and even institutional segments.

从历史上看，当价格与200天的SMA与下面的SMA作斗争并且无法持有时，通常会导致加速下降。如果比特币的价格果断地低于200天的SMA，售价低于83,000美元，那将向较低的水平打开大门，从而引发整个零售甚至机构的恐慌销售。

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What Is RSI Saying About Bitcoin’s Strength?

RSI对比特币的实力说了什么？

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.09, well below the neutral 50 mark and clearly in bearish territory. RSI has not recovered above 50 since early March, suggesting that buyers are losing conviction while sellers are slowly gaining control. During strong uptrends, RSI tends to hover between 50 and 80. The failure to do so here reinforces the argument that Bitcoin could see more pain before any sustainable reversal.

相对强度指数（RSI）位于43.09，远低于中性50分，并且在看跌领土上。自3月初以来，RSI尚未恢复50岁以上，这表明买家在卖方逐渐获得控制权的同时失去了信念。在强大的上升趋势期间，RSI倾向于在50到80之间徘徊。在这里，如果没有这样做，那就强化了比特币在任何可持续的逆转之前都能看到更多疼痛的论点。

Could $25,000 Really Be on the Table?

25,000美元真的可以在桌上吗？

While a plunge to $25,000 seems extreme to many, it cannot be ruled out entirely. Bitcoin has a history of brutal corrections—often shedding 40–60% after making all-time highs. From its recent peak near $110,000, a 60% retracement would put BTC price right around the $44,000 level. But if macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory crackdowns, or black swan events (like major exchange collapses) hit the market, psychological levels like $50,000, $35,000, and even $25,000 could come into play as panic overrides fundamentals. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's well within the realm of possibility—especially if key support levels break.

尽管对许多人来说，跌至25,000美元似乎很极端，但不能完全排除。比特币具有残酷的校正历史 - 在创下历史新高后，比特币通常脱落了40-60％。从最近的峰值接近110,000美元的峰值开始，60％的回撤将使BTC价格立即达到44,000美元。但是，如果宏观经济的不确定性，监管镇压或黑天鹅事件（例如重大交换崩溃）席卷了市场，心理水平（例如50,000美元，35,000美元，甚至25,000美元）可能会随着恐慌的基础而发挥作用。这不是最可能的情况，但它符合可能性领域，尤其是在关键支持水平破裂的情况下。

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What Levels Should Bulls Defend to Avoid a Crash?

公牛应该为避免撞车而辩护什么级别？

The most immediate support lies near $83,000, just under the 200-day SMA. If that level holds and Bitcoin price bounces back above $89,000, bulls

最直接的支持在200天的SMA范围内接近83,000美元。如果该级别持有，比特币价格返回89,000美元以上，则公牛