比特幣（BTC）價格預測：這是傾斜還是深層崩潰的開始？

在今年早些時候達到頂峰之後，比特幣的價格一直在努力恢復其看漲勢頭。截至2025年3月29日，BTC

Bitcoin price has been struggling to reclaim its bullish momentum after peaking earlier this year. As of March 29, 2025, BTC price is trading around $84,122, showing signs of weakness following a period of consolidation.

在今年早些時候達到頂峰之後，比特幣的價格一直在努力恢復其看漲勢頭。截至2025年3月29日，BTC價格的交易約為84,122美元，顯示了一段時間後的弱點跡象。

With investors anxiously eyeing potential downside levels, one burning question dominates the crypto space: Will Bitcoin crash to $25,000? This analysis decodes the current market structure, moving averages, RSI signals, and price action patterns to offer a realistic outlook for Bitcoin in the days ahead.

由於投資者焦急地關注潛在的下行水平，一個燃燒的問題主導著加密貨幣空間：比特幣會崩潰到25,000美元嗎？該分析解析了當前的市場結構，平均移動，RSI信號和價格動作模式，以在未來的日子提供現實的比特幣前景。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC Price Losing Momentum After Its 2025 Rally?

比特幣價格預測：BTC價格在2025年集會之後是否損失了動力？

Looking at the daily chart, it’s evident that Bitcoin’s euphoric rally from late 2024 into early 2025 has faded significantly. After reaching highs near $110,000, the price began a series of lower highs and lower lows—a classic signal of a weakening trend.

從2024年末到2025年初的比特幣的欣快集會顯然已經大大消失了。在達到110,000美元的高點之後，價格開始了一系列的下層和較低的低點，這是趨勢疲軟的經典信號。

What’s more concerning is that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim its 50-day simple moving average (currently near $89,112), which now acts as dynamic resistance. The 20-day SMA has also crossed below the 50-day, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

更令人擔憂的是，比特幣未能收回其50天簡單的移動平均線（目前接近89,112美元），現在是動態阻力。 20天的SMA也越過50天以下，表明短期看跌壓力。

Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be attributed in large part to rising global trade tensions, which have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into global financial markets. The U.S. government’s decision on March 25th to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports and other goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has intensified fears of a looming global economic slowdown.

比特幣最近的價格下跌很大程度上可以歸因於全球貿易緊張局勢的上升，這些貿易緊張局勢已向全球金融市場注入了新的不確定性。美國政府於3月25日決定對加拿大，墨西哥和中國的汽車進口和其他商品徵收25％的關稅，這加劇了人們對全球經濟放緩的迫在眉睫的恐懼。

As a result, investor sentiment has soured across risk-on assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500’s 1.85% drop since the announcement is a clear indication that traditional markets are also feeling the heat, and Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-volatility speculative asset—has not been spared.

結果，投資者的情緒在包括股票和加密貨幣在內的風險符合資產中造成了惡化。標準普爾500指數的1.85％下降，因為宣布這一消息清楚地表明，傳統市場也感到熱火，而比特幣（通常被視為高揮發性投機資產）尚未倖免。

As protectionist measures ramp up and retaliatory trade actions loom, investors may continue to shift capital into safer, less volatile assets, causing continued selling pressure on BTC in the near term. If these macroeconomic headwinds persist without resolution, Bitcoin could struggle to find support and potentially revisit much lower levels, possibly even approaching the $70,000–$60,000 range in the coming weeks.

隨著貿易保護主義者的措施加劇和報復性貿易行動的迫在眉睫，投資者可能會繼續將資本轉移到更安全的，較少的波動性資產中，從而在近期內繼續銷售BTC的壓力。如果這些宏觀經濟的逆風在沒有解決方案的情況下堅持下去，那麼比特幣可能會難以找到支持並可能重新審視較低的水平，甚至可能在接下來的幾週內接近70,000至60,000美元的範圍。

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Are the Moving Averages Signaling a Major Breakdown?

移動平均值是否標誌著重大崩潰？

Yes, and here’s why it matters. The 100-day SMA at $93,885 and the 200-day SMA around $85,713 are now tightly compressing near the current price zone.

是的，這就是為什麼它很重要。 100天的SMA為$ 93,885和200天的SMA左右$ 85,713現在在當前價格區附近緊迫。

Historically, when price battles the 200-day SMA from below and fails to hold, it often results in accelerated declines. If Bitcoin price decisively breaks below the 200-day SMA and holds under $83,000, that would open the gates toward much lower levels, triggering panic selling across retail and even institutional segments.

從歷史上看，當價格與200天的SMA與下面的SMA作鬥爭並且無法持有時，通常會導致加速下降。如果比特幣的價格果斷地低於200天的SMA，售價低於83,000美元，那將向較低的水平打開大門，從而引發整個零售甚至機構的恐慌銷售。

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What Is RSI Saying About Bitcoin’s Strength?

RSI對比特幣的實力說了什麼？

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.09, well below the neutral 50 mark and clearly in bearish territory. RSI has not recovered above 50 since early March, suggesting that buyers are losing conviction while sellers are slowly gaining control. During strong uptrends, RSI tends to hover between 50 and 80. The failure to do so here reinforces the argument that Bitcoin could see more pain before any sustainable reversal.

相對強度指數（RSI）位於43.09，遠低於中性50分，並且在看跌領土上。自3月初以來，RSI尚未恢復50歲以上，這表明買家在賣方逐漸獲得控制權的同時失去了信念。在強大的上升趨勢期間，RSI傾向於在50到80之間徘徊。在這裡，如果沒有這樣做，那就強化了比特幣在任何可持續的逆轉之前都能看到更多疼痛的論點。

Could $25,000 Really Be on the Table?

25,000美元真的可以在桌上嗎？

While a plunge to $25,000 seems extreme to many, it cannot be ruled out entirely. Bitcoin has a history of brutal corrections—often shedding 40–60% after making all-time highs. From its recent peak near $110,000, a 60% retracement would put BTC price right around the $44,000 level. But if macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory crackdowns, or black swan events (like major exchange collapses) hit the market, psychological levels like $50,000, $35,000, and even $25,000 could come into play as panic overrides fundamentals. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's well within the realm of possibility—especially if key support levels break.

儘管對許多人來說，跌至25,000美元似乎很極端，但不能完全排除。比特幣具有殘酷的校正歷史 - 在創下歷史新高後，比特幣通常脫落40-60％。從最近的峰值接近110,000美元的峰值開始，60％的回撤將使BTC價格立即達到44,000美元。但是，如果宏觀經濟的不確定性，監管鎮壓或黑天鵝事件（例如重大交換崩潰）席捲了市場，心理水平（例如50,000美元，35,000美元，甚至25,000美元）可能會隨著恐慌的基礎而發揮作用。這不是最可能的情況，但它符合可能性領域，尤其是在關鍵支持水平破裂的情況下。

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What Levels Should Bulls Defend to Avoid a Crash?

公牛應該為避免撞車而辯護什麼級別？

The most immediate support lies near $83,000, just under the 200-day SMA. If that level holds and Bitcoin price bounces back above $89,000, bulls

最直接的支持在200天的SMA範圍內接近83,000美元。如果該級別持有，比特幣價格返回89,000美元以上，則公牛