比特币（BTC）价格预测：BTC会在四月转折点之前达到88,000美元吗？

周三早些时候，阳光照耀着加密货币市场，比特币在对看涨季节性因素的日益chat不休，又有88,000美元

The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.

周三早些时候，阳光在加密货币市场上发光，比特币在对看涨的季节性因素越来越多的chat不休，随着3月的临近和第二季度的临近，比特币又下跌了88,000美元。

The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital, too, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.

分析师Miles Deutscher跟踪的最后十年的价格数据是April作为市场的转折点，现在和年终之间的上升机会75％。 QCP Capital也指出了该模式，该模式指出了第二季度，尤其是4月，是对加密货币的看涨。

"The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch - again, trailing only Q4," the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.

这家总部位于新加坡的公司在Telegram上说：“标准普尔500指数在第二季度的平均年增长率为19.6％，而比特币也记录了其第二好的中位数性能 - 同样仅落后第四季度。”

Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.

季节性因素并不像独立指标那样可靠，但是当与其他迹象（例如，长期持有人的销售停止）相结合时，它们显得可信。

The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy, according to data source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of the Day, below, too.

根据数据源BITBO图表，所谓的1Y+HODL波指示灯跟踪了将其BTC保持至少一年的比特币地址（或钱包）的比例，该指示器已转向上升，这表明了转移到持有策略的转变。也请参见下面的一天。

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision. This move was labeled "a big win for crypto" by White House crypto czar David Sacks.

联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）正在起草规则，以从其银行监督中消除声誉风险。这一举动被白宫加密沙皇大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）标记为“加密货币的大胜利”。

"In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the de-banking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0. This is a welcome change & we'll continue working to ensure a level playing field for all innovators & entrepreneurs," he said on X.

他在X上说：“实际上，这种模糊而主观的标准用于通过Copepoint 2.0行动来证明合法加密货币业务的脱银行。

Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers noting $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance.

说到更广泛的市场，社交媒体谈论稳定的市场已经兴起，观察家指出，稳定的318亿美元的稳定率坐在二手赛上。

suggest that President Donald Trump's expected reciprocal tariffs of April 2 may be softer than expected. However, there is still confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries and sectors that will be targeted.

建议总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的预期4月2日的互惠关税可能比预期的要柔和。但是，关于关税，国家和部门的合法性仍然存在混乱。

The deeper slide in U.S. consumer confidence in March and the death cross in the USD/JPY pair, indicating a strengthening of the yen, a haven currency, ahead, don't help matters either. So stay alert!

美国消费者对三月的信心和usd/jpy对的死亡交叉的更深层次的滑动，这表明日元，避风港货币的加强也无济于事。所以请保持警惕！

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By Shaurya Malwa

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Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside Investors

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