比特幣（BTC）價格預測：BTC會在四月轉折點之前達到88,000美元嗎？

週三早些時候，陽光照耀著加密貨幣市場，比特幣在對看漲季節性因素的日益chat不休，又有88,000美元

The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.

週三早些時候，陽光在加密貨幣市場上發光，比特幣在對看漲的季節性因素越來越多的chat不休，隨著3月的臨近和第二季度的臨近，比特幣又下跌了88,000美元。

The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital, too, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.

分析師Miles Deutscher跟踪的最後十年的價格數據是April作為市場的轉折點，現在和年終之間的上昇機會75％。 QCP Capital也指出了該模式，該模式指出了第二季度，尤其是4月，是對加密貨幣的看漲。

"The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch - again, trailing only Q4," the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.

這家總部位於新加坡的公司在Telegram上說：“標準普爾500指數在第二季度的平均年增長率為19.6％，而比特幣也記錄了其第二好的中位數性能 - 同樣僅落後第四季度。”

Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.

季節性因素並不像獨立指標那樣可靠，但是當與其他跡象（例如，長期持有人的銷售停止）相結合時，它們顯得可信。

The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses (or wallets) that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy, according to data source Bitbo Charts. See Chart of the Day, below, too.

根據數據源BITBO圖表，所謂的1Y+HODL波指示燈跟踪了將其BTC保持至少一年的比特幣地址（或錢包）的比例，該指示器已轉向上升，這表明了轉移到持有策略的轉變。也請參見下面的一天。

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision. This move was labeled "a big win for crypto" by White House crypto czar David Sacks.

聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）正在起草規則，以從其銀行監督中消除聲譽風險。這一舉動被白宮加密沙皇大衛·薩克斯（David Sacks）標記為“加密貨幣的大勝利”。

"In practice, this vague and subjective criteria was used to justify the de-banking of lawful crypto businesses through Operation Chokepoint 2.0. This is a welcome change & we'll continue working to ensure a level playing field for all innovators & entrepreneurs," he said on X.

他在X上說：“實際上，這種模糊而主觀的標準用於通過Copepoint 2.0行動來證明合法加密貨幣業務的脫銀行。

Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers noting $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance.

說到更廣泛的市場，社交媒體談論穩定的市場已經興起，觀察家指出，穩定的318億美元的穩定率坐在二手賽上。

suggest that President Donald Trump's expected reciprocal tariffs of April 2 may be softer than expected. However, there is still confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries and sectors that will be targeted.

建議總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的預期4月2日的互惠關稅可能比預期的要柔和。但是，關於關稅，國家和部門的合法性仍然存在混亂。

The deeper slide in U.S. consumer confidence in March and the death cross in the USD/JPY pair, indicating a strengthening of the yen, a haven currency, ahead, don't help matters either. So stay alert!

美國消費者對三月的信心和usd/jpy對的死亡交叉的更深層次的滑動，這表明日元，避風港貨幣的加強也無濟於事。所以請保持警惕！

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By Shaurya Malwa

Shaurya Malwa

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Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside Investors

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