比特币（BTC）价格可能会在周末困扰后反弹，这就是为什么

比特币的价格动作几乎在2025年到目前为止的每个周末都在很大程度上都不足。在本周的令人印象深刻的开局之后，旗舰加密货币在周末开始，重返84,000美元左右。

A new analysis suggests that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could be setting up for a rebound from its recent lows.

一项新的分析表明，比特币（BTC）的价格可能会从最近的低点中为反弹设置。

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, changes in the coin’s sell-side risk ratio may indicate a shift in market dynamics.

根据加密分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）的说法，硬币的卖方风险比率的变化可能表明市场动态发生了变化。

This metric, which estimates the ratio between the sum of all realized profits and losses and the total realized market capitalization, usually assumes that all losses and profits realized in the market are a potential source of sell-side pressure. The realized losses and profits divided by the realized capitalization help quantify the aggregate sell-side risk in the market.

该指标估计所有已实现的利润和亏损的总和与实现市值的总和之间的比率，通常假设市场中实现的所有损失和利润都是卖方压力的潜在来源。已实现的损失和利润除以已实现的资本化有助于量化市场中的总卖方风险。

Typically, when the sell-side risk ratio has a high value, it implies a high level of realization and oversupply of coins, as seen during late-stage bull markets and bear market capitulation events.

通常，当卖方风险比值具有很高的价值时，它意味着在后期牛市和熊市投降事件中可以看到，高水平的意识和供过于求的硬币。

On the other hand, low values for the metric are associated with periods of low realization and volatility, seen in market consolidation phases and a sideways market.

另一方面，度量标准的低值与市场整合阶段和侧向市场相关的低实现和波动性时期有关。

As seen in the chart above, the Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio has dropped to around 0.086% this weekend.

如上图所示，本周末的比特币卖方风险比率下降到约0.086％。

As observed in the chart above, the price of Bitcoin rebounded from its local bottom in the past two years whenever the sell-side risk ratio slipped below 0.1%.

如上图所示，在过去两年中，每当卖方风险比率下降到0.1％时，比特币的价格从本地底部反弹。

In January, the premier cryptocurrency surged to a then-all-time high price of $73,737 after the sell-side risk ratio fell beneath the 0.1% threshold.

一月份，当卖方风险比率下降到0.1％的阈值之后，一月份的总理加密货币飙升至当时的高价73,737美元。

Similarly, the Bitcoin price ran up to the current all-time high after the sell-side risk indicator slumped to under the 0.1% level in September.

同样，在9月的卖方风险指标下降到低于0.1％的水平之后，比特币价格一直升至目前的历史最高水平。

If history is anything to go by, the price of Bitcoin could be gearing up for a rebound to a new high from its current lows, as the sell-side risk ratio lies at 0.086%. However, it is worth noting that the market leader’s rebound was sustained by positive catalysts, like the US-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January and the election victory of Donald Trump as US President, in November.

如果历史记录有任何努力，则比特币的价格可能会从目前的低点中获得反弹，因为卖方风险比率为0.086％。但是，值得注意的是，市场领导者的反弹是由积极的催化剂所维持的，例如一月份的总部位于美国的交易所交易基金（ETF）以及11月的唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）作为美国总统的选举胜利。