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由于 9 月份就业数据强于预期且链上指标看涨,比特币 (BTC) 于 10 月 4 日升至 62,338 美元的盘中高点
Bitcoin price reached an intraday high of $62,338 on Oct. 4 as stronger-than-expected jobs data for September and bullish onchain metrics set the stage for a potential rally in the fourth quarter.
10 月 4 日,由于强于预期的 9 月份就业数据和看涨的链上指标为第四季度的潜在反弹奠定了基础,比特币价格在 10 月 4 日触及 62,338 美元的盘中高点。
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
比特币/美元日线图。来源:TradingView
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, significantly higher than the anticipated 147,000 gain. During the same period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, compared with expectations for no change.
根据美国劳工统计局的数据,9 月份非农就业人数增加 25.4 万人,大幅高于预期的 14.7 万人。同期,失业率从 9 月份的 4.2% 降至 4.1%,而预期没有变化。
As a result, market participants now price in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on Nov. 7, following an aggressive half-point move in September, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
因此,根据芝加哥商品交易所集团 FedWatch 工具的数据,继 9 月份大幅降息半个基点之后,市场参与者现在预计 11 月 7 日美联储下一次会议降息 25 个基点的可能性为 97% 。
Another possible driver behind the idea of an “Uptober” and a fourth-quarter rally for Bitcoin is the continued decrease in BTC held on centralized exchanges.
“Uptober”和比特币第四季度反弹背后的另一个可能驱动因素是中心化交易所持有的比特币持续减少。
Data from CryptoQuant suggests there are over 2.8 million BTC in total on centralized exchanges, which marks the lowest amount since November 2018 and less than 500,000 BTC compared to March.
CryptoQuant 的数据显示,中心化交易所上的 BTC 总量超过 280 万个,这是 2018 年 11 月以来的最低数量,与 3 月份相比还不到 50 万个 BTC。
Bitcoin balance exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
比特币余额交换。来源:CryptoQuant
While not a perfect measure, the metric indicates the number of BTC coins that are being held in known exchange wallets, and a low balance often indicates a decreased amount of available liquidity, which, in some scenarios, tends to precede bullish price movements.
虽然不是一个完美的衡量标准,但该指标表明了已知交易所钱包中持有的 BTC 硬币数量,而低余额通常表明可用流动性数量减少,在某些情况下,这往往会先于看涨的价格走势。
The data shows that the exchange balance fell by 12% over the past six months, during which time Bitcoin has been trading within a broad range between $50,000 and $72,000. The decline in exchange balances is also relatively similar to that seen between March 2020 and November 2020, before Bitcoin embarked on an extended rally that culminated in a new all-time high of $69,000 in late 2021.
数据显示,过去六个月,交易余额下降了 12%,在此期间,比特币的交易价格一直在 50,000 美元至 72,000 美元之间。交易所余额的下降也与 2020 年 3 月至 2020 年 11 月期间的情况相对相似,之后比特币开始了长期上涨,最终在 2021 年底创下 69,000 美元的历史新高。
If history repeats itself, the declining Bitcoin reserve on exchanges could be a precursor to BTC price rallying to new record highs.
如果历史重演,交易所比特币储备的下降可能是比特币价格上涨至新纪录高点的先兆。
Another possible headwind for Bitcoin as Q4 unfolds is increasing institutional demand through the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
随着第四季度的展开,比特币的另一个可能的阻力是通过美国现货比特币 ETF 增加机构需求。
Related: Buying this Bitcoin dip is a ‘no-brainer’ — Hedge fund manager
相关:对冲基金经理表示,在比特币下跌时买入是“理所当然的”
Additional data from CryptoQuant reveals that institutional investors went from selling a net 5,000 BTC on Sept. 2 to an average buying an average of 7,000 BTC by the end of September. This marks the highest daily purchase of these investment products since Sept. 21, when net buying was above 9,000 BTC. This demand helped propel Bitcoin prices to an all-time high of $73,835 in Q1 2024.
CryptoQuant 的额外数据显示,机构投资者从 9 月 2 日净卖出 5,000 BTC 到 9 月底平均买入 7,000 BTC。这是自 9 月 21 日以来这些投资产品的最高日购买量,当时净购买量超过 9,000 BTC。这种需求帮助推动比特币价格在 2024 年第一季度达到 73,835 美元的历史新高。
Daily change in total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. Source: CryptoQuant
比特币 ETF 现货总持有量的每日变化。来源:CryptoQuant
Before embarking on the much-anticipated Q4 rally, crypto analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin price may first drop to rest the adoption curve at $57,000.
在开始备受期待的第四季度反弹之前,加密货币分析师蒂莫西·彼得森 (Timothy Peterson) 认为,比特币价格可能首先下跌,使采用曲线保持在 57,000 美元。
Source: Timothy Peterson
资料来源:蒂莫西·彼得森
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