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由於 9 月就業數據強於預期且鏈上指標看漲,比特幣 (BTC) 於 10 月 4 日昇至 62,338 美元的盤中高點
Bitcoin price reached an intraday high of $62,338 on Oct. 4 as stronger-than-expected jobs data for September and bullish onchain metrics set the stage for a potential rally in the fourth quarter.
10 月 4 日,由於強於預期的 9 月就業數據和看漲的鏈上指標為第四季度的潛在反彈奠定了基礎,比特幣價格在 10 月 4 日觸及 62,338 美元的盤中高點。
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
比特幣/美元日線圖。來源:TradingView
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, significantly higher than the anticipated 147,000 gain. During the same period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, compared with expectations for no change.
根據美國勞工統計局的數據,9 月非農業就業人數增加 25.4 萬人,大幅高於預期的 14.7 萬人。同期,失業率從 9 月的 4.2% 降至 4.1%,而預期沒有變化。
As a result, market participants now price in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on Nov. 7, following an aggressive half-point move in September, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
因此,根據芝加哥商品交易所集團 FedWatch 工具的數據,繼 9 月大幅降息半個基點之後,市場參與者現在預計 11 月 7 日聯準會下一次會議降息 25 個基點的可能性為 97% 。
Another possible driver behind the idea of an “Uptober” and a fourth-quarter rally for Bitcoin is the continued decrease in BTC held on centralized exchanges.
「Uptober」和比特幣第四季反彈背後的另一個可能驅動因素是中心化交易所持有的比特幣持續減少。
Data from CryptoQuant suggests there are over 2.8 million BTC in total on centralized exchanges, which marks the lowest amount since November 2018 and less than 500,000 BTC compared to March.
CryptoQuant 的數據顯示,中心化交易所上的 BTC 總量超過 280 萬個,這是自 2018 年 11 月以來的最低數量,與 3 月相比還不到 50 萬個 BTC。
Bitcoin balance exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
比特幣餘額交換。來源:CryptoQuant
While not a perfect measure, the metric indicates the number of BTC coins that are being held in known exchange wallets, and a low balance often indicates a decreased amount of available liquidity, which, in some scenarios, tends to precede bullish price movements.
雖然不是一個完美的衡量標準,但該指標表明了已知交易所錢包中持有的BTC 硬幣數量,而低餘額通常表明可用流動性數量減少,在某些情況下,這往往會先於看漲的價格走勢。
The data shows that the exchange balance fell by 12% over the past six months, during which time Bitcoin has been trading within a broad range between $50,000 and $72,000. The decline in exchange balances is also relatively similar to that seen between March 2020 and November 2020, before Bitcoin embarked on an extended rally that culminated in a new all-time high of $69,000 in late 2021.
數據顯示,過去六個月,交易餘額下降了 12%,在此期間,比特幣的交易價格一直在 5 萬美元至 7.2 萬美元之間。交易所餘額的下降也與 2020 年 3 月至 2020 年 11 月期間的情況相對相似,之後比特幣開始了長期上漲,最終在 2021 年底創下 69,000 美元的歷史新高。
If history repeats itself, the declining Bitcoin reserve on exchanges could be a precursor to BTC price rallying to new record highs.
如果歷史重演,交易所比特幣儲備的下降可能是比特幣價格上漲至新紀錄高點的先兆。
Another possible headwind for Bitcoin as Q4 unfolds is increasing institutional demand through the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
隨著第四季的展開,比特幣的另一個可能的阻力是透過美國現貨比特幣 ETF 增加機構需求。
Related: Buying this Bitcoin dip is a ‘no-brainer’ — Hedge fund manager
相關:對沖基金經理表示,在比特幣下跌時買入是“理所當然的”
Additional data from CryptoQuant reveals that institutional investors went from selling a net 5,000 BTC on Sept. 2 to an average buying an average of 7,000 BTC by the end of September. This marks the highest daily purchase of these investment products since Sept. 21, when net buying was above 9,000 BTC. This demand helped propel Bitcoin prices to an all-time high of $73,835 in Q1 2024.
CryptoQuant 的額外數據顯示,機構投資者從 9 月 2 日淨賣出 5,000 BTC 到 9 月底平均買入 7,000 BTC。這是自 9 月 21 日以來這些投資產品的最高日購買量,當時淨購買量超過 9,000 BTC。這種需求有助於推動比特幣價格在 2024 年第一季達到 73,835 美元的歷史新高。
Daily change in total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. Source: CryptoQuant
比特幣 ETF 現貨總持有量的每日變動。來源:CryptoQuant
Before embarking on the much-anticipated Q4 rally, crypto analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin price may first drop to rest the adoption curve at $57,000.
在開始備受期待的第四季度反彈之前,加密貨幣分析師 Timothy Peterson 認為,比特幣價格可能會先下跌,使採用曲線保持在 57,000 美元。
Source: Timothy Peterson
來源:蒂莫西·彼得森
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