比特币（BTC）的价格保持呼吸，因为CPI显示出轻微的通货膨胀

尽管美国消费者价格指数（CPI）显示出通货膨胀的轻微宽松，但比特币却屏住了呼吸。

The American consumer price index (CPI) has shown a slight easing in inflation in April, with the figure coming in at 3.1%. This is below the expectations of 3.2% and marks a slowdown from the March reading of 3.2%. However, while this news may be seen as positive, it remains to be seen what impact it will have on Bitcoin price predictions, which has seen a slight pullback from $84,000 to $83,000 in recent hours.

美国消费者价格指数（CPI）在4月份的通货膨胀率略有缓解，数字占3.1％。这低于3.2％的预期，比3月份的阅读量降低了3.2％。但是，尽管这一消息可能被视为正面，但尚待观察，它将对比特币价格预测产生什么影响，最近几个小时的略有回调从84,000美元降至83,000美元。

As the macroeconomic landscape becomes increasingly crucial for crypto traders, the focus is shifting to the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

随着宏观经济景观对加密交易者的关键越来越重要，重点正在转移到美联储降低利率的可能性。

The Fed, inflation, and Bitcoin: a three-step tango

美联储，通货膨胀和比特币：三步探戈

美联储，通货膨胀和比特币：三步探戈

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American CPI, a measure of inflation, has slightly weakened to 3.1% in April. This is below the anticipated 3.2% and marks a slowdown from the March reading of 3.2%.

根据劳工统计局的最新数据，美国CPI（一种通货膨胀量）在四月份略有弱至3.1％。这低于预期的3.2％，标志着3月份阅读3.2％的放缓。

While this news may be seen as positive, it remains to be seen what impact it will have on Bitcoin price predictions, which has seen a slight pullback from $84,000 to $83,000 in just a few hours.

尽管这一消息可能被视为正面，但它将对比特币价格预测产生什么影响，这在短短几个小时内就从84,000美元降至83,000美元。

However, according to Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, this slight slowdown could be good news for crypto traders, as it paves the way for interest rate cuts.

但是，根据21shares的战略家马特·梅纳（Matt Mena）的说法，这种轻微的放缓对加密货币交易者来说可能是个好消息，因为它为削减利率铺平了道路。

Indeed, the market is now placing a 31.4% chance on a cut in May, compared to a meager 10% a month earlier. Moreover, the chances of three cuts by the end of 2025 have quintupled.

实际上，与一个月前10％相比，5月份的市场削减了31.4％的机会。此外，到2025年底，三次削减的机会已经占据了Quintuplplplepl。

An accommodating monetary policy would inject massive liquidity, which is generally favorable for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Historically, periods of interest rate cutting cycles tend to coincide with rallies in the crypto market.

一项适应货币政策将注入大量流动性，这通常有利于比特币等波动性资产。从历史上看，削减周期的时期往往与加密货币市场的集会相吻合。

Yet, BTC is currently seeing a downturn, which traders attribute to other pressing concerns, such as Trump’s trade war, geopolitical tensions, and a more cautious timing for the Fed than what investors had anticipated.

然而，BTC目前正在看到一场低迷，交易者将其归因于其他紧迫的担忧，例如特朗普的贸易战，地缘政治紧张局势以及对美联储的谨慎时机，比投资者预期的要谨慎。

Bitcoin is presently hovering around the $83,000 threshold, rendering it susceptible to rapid price swings with any surprising announcements.

目前，比特币正盘旋在83,000美元的门槛左右，这使得它很容易在价格下波动，并有任何令人惊讶的公告。

Furthermore, Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, has stated that “it is still too early to declare victory over inflation.”

此外，美联储负责人杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示：“宣布胜利到通货膨胀还为时过早。”

In a separate statement, Christopher Waller, a governor at the central bank, added: “There is no rush to cut rates.”

中央银行州长克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）在另一份声明中补充说：“没有急于降低利率。​​”

As a result, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, closely monitoring the macroeconomic calendar for any signs of confirmation regarding the easing cycle.

结果，投资者很可能会留在场上，密切监视宏观经济日历，以确认有关宽松周期的任何确认迹象。

Any indication of an interest rate cut could trigger an unprecedented level of FOMO (fear of missing out), especially considering the massive sums that investors have prepared to pour into the market in anticipation of such a move.

任何降低利率的迹象都可能触发前所未有的FOMO水平（担心错过），尤其是考虑到投资者准备在这种举动中投入市场的巨额资金。

Trump, debt, and the art of manipulating the markets

特朗普，债务和操纵市场的艺术

特朗普，债务和操纵市场的艺术

What if the market crash was… intentional? This is the bold thesis that Anthony Pompliano presents in his analysis of the political and economic factors at play.

如果市场崩溃是有意的，该怎么办？这是一个大胆的论点，即安东尼·彼得梅诺（Anthony Pompomphiano）在对政治和经济因素的分析中提出了发挥作用的分析。

According to Pompliano, Trump would be willing to let the indices take a plunge in order to force the hand of the Federal Reserve into slashing interest rates.

据pompliano称，特朗普愿意让这些指数大跌眼镜，以迫使美联储降低利率。

Would this be a political failure? Not necessarily. According to the numbers cited by Pompliano, it’s a cold calculation: $9.2 trillion in American debt is due by 2025. Without the possibility of refinancing at low rates, the interest would explode, ultimately destroying the economy.

这是政治失败吗？未必。根据Pompliano引用的数字，这是一个冷淡的计算：美国债务的9.2万亿美元将于2025年到期。如果不可能以低利率再融资，利息将爆炸，最终破坏经济。

As the Kobeissi Letter points out, refinancing $36 trillion in debt at a time of high interest rates would have catastrophic consequences. For Trump, an interest rate cut is a desperate necessity—even if it means sacrificing the stock market temporarily.

正如Kobeissi信所指出的那样，在高利率时，将36万亿美元的债务再融资将带来灾难性的后果。对于特朗普来说，降低利率是迫切的必要性，即使这意味着要暂时牺牲股票市场。

And the markets are already anticipating this reversal from the Fed, which is prepared for a May cut only if the economic outlook deteriorates. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against monetary drift, could capitalize on this orchestrated chaos.

而且市场已经预见到美联储的这种逆转，这是为了在经济前景恶化的情况下准备削减的可能性。比特币通常被视为反对金钱漂移的树篱，可以利用这种精心策划的混乱。

In this tug-of-war between politics and economics, Bitcoin plays a unique role. It’s neither a traditional asset nor simply speculation; it embodies an alternative to weakened systems.

在政治与经济学之间的拔河比赛中，比特币起着独特的作用。这既不是传统资产，也不是简单的投机。它体现了削弱系统的替代方法。

If the Fed finally yields to the pressure and signals a pivot in policy, the influx of liquidity could propel Bitcoin to new highs, potentially pushing it beyond $100,000 despite a timid rebound.

如果美联储最终施加压力并发出了政策中的枢纽，那么流动性的涌入可能会推动比特币升至新的高点，尽管有胆怯的反弹，但仍会将其推向100,000美元以上。

But in case of prolonged resistance from the central bank and further turbulence ensues, this chaotic scenario will offer buyers an excellent opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin at bargain prices.

但是，如果中央银行延长抵抗，随之而来的是进一步的动荡，这种混乱的情况将为买家提供一个以便宜价格积累更多比特币的绝佳机会。