比特幣（BTC）的價格保持呼吸，因為CPI顯示出輕微的通貨膨脹

儘管美國消費者價格指數（CPI）顯示出通貨膨脹的輕微寬鬆，但比特幣卻屏住了呼吸。

The American consumer price index (CPI) has shown a slight easing in inflation in April, with the figure coming in at 3.1%. This is below the expectations of 3.2% and marks a slowdown from the March reading of 3.2%. However, while this news may be seen as positive, it remains to be seen what impact it will have on Bitcoin price predictions, which has seen a slight pullback from $84,000 to $83,000 in recent hours.

美國消費者價格指數（CPI）在4月份的通貨膨脹率略有緩解，數字佔3.1％。這低於3.2％的預期，比3月份的閱讀量降低了3.2％。但是，儘管這一消息可能被視為正面，但尚待觀察，它將對比特幣價格預測產生什麼影響，最近幾個小時的略有回調從84,000美元降至83,000美元。

As the macroeconomic landscape becomes increasingly crucial for crypto traders, the focus is shifting to the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

隨著宏觀經濟景觀對加密交易者的關鍵越來越重要，重點正在轉移到美聯儲降低利率的可能性。

The Fed, inflation, and Bitcoin: a three-step tango

美聯儲，通貨膨脹和比特幣：三步探戈

美聯儲，通貨膨脹和比特幣：三步探戈

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American CPI, a measure of inflation, has slightly weakened to 3.1% in April. This is below the anticipated 3.2% and marks a slowdown from the March reading of 3.2%.

根據勞工統計局的最新數據，美國CPI（一種通貨膨脹量）在四月份略有弱至3.1％。這低於預期的3.2％，標誌著3月份閱讀3.2％的放緩。

While this news may be seen as positive, it remains to be seen what impact it will have on Bitcoin price predictions, which has seen a slight pullback from $84,000 to $83,000 in just a few hours.

儘管這一消息可能被視為正面，但它將對比特幣價格預測產生什麼影響，這在短短幾個小時內就從84,000美元降至83,000美元。

However, according to Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, this slight slowdown could be good news for crypto traders, as it paves the way for interest rate cuts.

但是，根據21shares的戰略家馬特·梅納（Matt Mena）的說法，這種輕微的放緩對加密貨幣交易者來說可能是個好消息，因為它為削減利率鋪平了道路。

Indeed, the market is now placing a 31.4% chance on a cut in May, compared to a meager 10% a month earlier. Moreover, the chances of three cuts by the end of 2025 have quintupled.

實際上，與一個月前10％相比，5月份的市場削減了31.4％的機會。此外，到2025年底，三次削減的機會已經佔據了Quintuplplplepl。

An accommodating monetary policy would inject massive liquidity, which is generally favorable for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Historically, periods of interest rate cutting cycles tend to coincide with rallies in the crypto market.

一項適應貨幣政策將注入大量流動性，這通常有利於比特幣等波動性資產。從歷史上看，削減週期的時期往往與加密貨幣市場的集會相吻合。

Yet, BTC is currently seeing a downturn, which traders attribute to other pressing concerns, such as Trump’s trade war, geopolitical tensions, and a more cautious timing for the Fed than what investors had anticipated.

然而，BTC目前正在看到一場低迷，交易者將其歸因於其他緊迫的擔憂，例如特朗普的貿易戰，地緣政治緊張局勢以及對美聯儲的謹慎時機，比投資者預期的要謹慎。

Bitcoin is presently hovering around the $83,000 threshold, rendering it susceptible to rapid price swings with any surprising announcements.

目前，比特幣正盤旋在83,000美元的門檻左右，這使得它很容易在價格下波動，並有任何令人驚訝的公告。

Furthermore, Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, has stated that “it is still too early to declare victory over inflation.”

此外，美聯儲負責人杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）表示：“宣布勝利到通貨膨脹還為時過早。”

In a separate statement, Christopher Waller, a governor at the central bank, added: “There is no rush to cut rates.”

中央銀行州長克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）在另一份聲明中補充說：“沒有急於降低利率。​​”

As a result, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, closely monitoring the macroeconomic calendar for any signs of confirmation regarding the easing cycle.

結果，投資者很可能會留在場上，密切監視宏觀經濟日曆，以確認有關寬鬆週期的任何確認跡象。

Any indication of an interest rate cut could trigger an unprecedented level of FOMO (fear of missing out), especially considering the massive sums that investors have prepared to pour into the market in anticipation of such a move.

任何降低利率的跡像都可能觸發前所未有的FOMO水平（擔心錯過），尤其是考慮到投資者準備在這種舉動中投入市場的巨額資金。

Trump, debt, and the art of manipulating the markets

特朗普，債務和操縱市場的藝術

特朗普，債務和操縱市場的藝術

What if the market crash was… intentional? This is the bold thesis that Anthony Pompliano presents in his analysis of the political and economic factors at play.

如果市場崩潰是有意的，該怎麼辦？這是一個大膽的論點，即安東尼·彼得梅諾（Anthony Pompomphiano）在對政治和經濟因素的分析中提出了發揮作用的分析。

According to Pompliano, Trump would be willing to let the indices take a plunge in order to force the hand of the Federal Reserve into slashing interest rates.

據pompliano稱，特朗普願意讓這些指數大跌眼鏡，以迫使美聯儲降低利率。

Would this be a political failure? Not necessarily. According to the numbers cited by Pompliano, it’s a cold calculation: $9.2 trillion in American debt is due by 2025. Without the possibility of refinancing at low rates, the interest would explode, ultimately destroying the economy.

這是政治失敗嗎？未必。根據Pompliano引用的數字，這是一個冷淡的計算：美國債務的9.2萬億美元將於2025年到期。如果不可能以低利率再融資，利息將爆炸，最終破壞經濟。

As the Kobeissi Letter points out, refinancing $36 trillion in debt at a time of high interest rates would have catastrophic consequences. For Trump, an interest rate cut is a desperate necessity—even if it means sacrificing the stock market temporarily.

正如Kobeissi信所指出的那樣，在高利率時，將36萬億美元的債務再融資將帶來災難性的後果。對於特朗普來說，降低利率是迫切的必要性，即使這意味著要暫時犧牲股票市場。

And the markets are already anticipating this reversal from the Fed, which is prepared for a May cut only if the economic outlook deteriorates. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against monetary drift, could capitalize on this orchestrated chaos.

而且市場已經預見到美聯儲的這種逆轉，這是為了在經濟前景惡化的情況下準備削減的可能性。比特幣通常被視為反對金錢漂移的樹籬，可以利用這種精心策劃的混亂。

In this tug-of-war between politics and economics, Bitcoin plays a unique role. It’s neither a traditional asset nor simply speculation; it embodies an alternative to weakened systems.

在政治與經濟學之間的拔河比賽中，比特幣起著獨特的作用。這既不是傳統資產，也不是簡單的投機。它體現了削弱系統的替代方法。

If the Fed finally yields to the pressure and signals a pivot in policy, the influx of liquidity could propel Bitcoin to new highs, potentially pushing it beyond $100,000 despite a timid rebound.

如果美聯儲最終施加壓力並發出了政策中的樞紐，那麼流動性的湧入可能會推動比特幣升至新的高點，儘管有膽怯的反彈，但仍會將其推向100,000美元以上。

But in case of prolonged resistance from the central bank and further turbulence ensues, this chaotic scenario will offer buyers an excellent opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin at bargain prices.

但是，如果中央銀行延長抵抗，隨之而來的是進一步的動盪，這種混亂的情況將為買家提供一個以便宜價格積累更多比特幣的絕佳機會。