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该链上分析强调了确认这一预测的指标以及投资者近期应期待的内容。
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price increase to $65,497 seems to have hit a snag, and several on-chain metrics indicate that the coin may pull back before attempting to retest $70,000.
比特币 (BTC) 最近的价格上涨至 65,497 美元似乎遇到了障碍,一些链上指标表明该代币可能会在尝试重新测试 70,000 美元之前回调。
This analysis examines the indicators suggesting a potential price drop and explores what investors can expect in the near term.
该分析研究了表明潜在价格下跌的指标,并探讨了投资者近期的预期。
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Time for a Pullback
链上指标表明回调时间到了
Bitcoin’s price rise is surprising, considering that at the beginning of September, many expected it to be bearish. However, the price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence suggests that BTC could drop before making any attempt to reach $70,000 again.
考虑到 9 月初,许多人预计比特币会看跌,比特币的价格上涨令人惊讶。然而,每日活跃地址(DAA)的价格背离表明,在尝试再次达到 70,000 美元之前,BTC 可能会下跌。
The price DAA measures whether user engagement increases as a coin’s value rises. When the price increases together with active addresses, it is a buy signal, and the cryptocurrency can increase in value.
DAA 价格衡量用户参与度是否随着代币价值的上升而增加。当价格与活跃地址一起上涨时,这是一个买入信号,加密货币可以升值。
At press time, Bitcoin’s price DAA had dropped to -54.89%. This decrease shows that market participants are engaging less with the coin. As such, the recent uptrend might be weak, as this is a sell signal.
截至发稿,比特币价格DAA已跌至-54.89%。这种下降表明市场参与者对代币的参与减少。因此,近期的上升趋势可能较弱,因为这是一个卖出信号。
Moreover, the coin’s performance has had an impact on holders’ profitability. On September 16, 79.92% of Bitcoin holders were in the money. But according to the Historical In/Out of Money (HIOM), which compares addresses making a profit at different price ranges, 91.97% are now in the money.
此外,代币的表现对持有者的盈利能力产生了影响。 9月16日,79.92%的比特币持有者都在钱里。但根据历史资金流入/流出 (HIOM)(比较在不同价格范围内获利的地址)的数据,现在 91.97% 的资金处于资金状态。
Historically, when the ratio has reached such levels, some holders take profits, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin’s price. For example, something similar happened in July when the holders in profits were about 93%.
从历史上看,当该比率达到这样的水平时,一些持有者会获利了结,导致比特币价格下跌。例如,7月份就发生了类似的情况,当时的利润持有者约为93%。
A few days later, it dropped to 78%. Another scenario occurred on August 25 when the percentage was 88.35%, and the decline in Bitcoin price later led to 76.23%. Therefore, if history rhymes with the current condition, BTC could be set for a short-term drawdown.
几天后,它下降到78%。另一种情况发生在8月25日,当时的比例为88.35%,随后比特币价格的下跌导致了76.23%。因此,如果历史与当前情况相符,比特币可能会出现短期下跌。
BTC Price Prediction: $60,000 Coming
BTC价格预测:60,000美元即将到来
While the price is expected to produce a positive return, the daily chart shows that Bitcoin’s attempt to reach $69,000 has encountered resistance, and the bears are trying to overthrow the bullish dominance.
虽然价格预计将产生正回报,但日线图显示,比特币试图达到 69,000 美元的目标遇到了阻力,空头正试图推翻多头的主导地位。
If the price drops below $65,000, the $65,838 region will be a major resistance zone. However, buyers will likely try to defend BTC from going below support at $63,093. The chart below shows that this potential defense could fail.
如果价格跌破 65,000 美元,65,838 美元区域将是主要阻力区。然而,买家可能会试图阻止 BTC 跌破 63,093 美元的支撑位。下图显示这种潜在的防御可能会失败。
Bitcoin’s price could decrease to $60,348 within a few days. On the other hand, a close above $65,838 will tilt the trend in the bulls’ favor. In that scenario, Bitcoin might jump to $68,236.
比特币的价格可能会在几天内跌至 60,348 美元。另一方面,收盘价高于 65,838 美元将使趋势向多头倾斜。在这种情况下,比特币可能会跃升至 68,236 美元。
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