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此鏈上分析強調了確認此預測的指標以及投資者近期應期待的內容。
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price increase to $65,497 seems to have hit a snag, and several on-chain metrics indicate that the coin may pull back before attempting to retest $70,000.
比特幣 (BTC) 最近的價格上漲至 65,497 美元似乎遇到了障礙,一些鏈上指標表明該代幣可能會在嘗試重新測試 70,000 美元之前回調。
This analysis examines the indicators suggesting a potential price drop and explores what investors can expect in the near term.
該分析研究了顯示潛在價格下跌的指標,並探討了投資者近期的預期。
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Time for a Pullback
鏈上指標顯示回調時間到了
Bitcoin’s price rise is surprising, considering that at the beginning of September, many expected it to be bearish. However, the price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence suggests that BTC could drop before making any attempt to reach $70,000 again.
考慮到 9 月初,許多人預計比特幣會看跌,比特幣的價格上漲令人驚訝。然而,每日活躍地址(DAA)的價格背離表明,在嘗試再次達到 70,000 美元之前,BTC 可能會下跌。
The price DAA measures whether user engagement increases as a coin’s value rises. When the price increases together with active addresses, it is a buy signal, and the cryptocurrency can increase in value.
DAA 價格衡量用戶參與度是否隨著代幣價值的上升而增加。當價格與活躍地址一起上漲時,這是一個買入訊號,加密貨幣可以升值。
At press time, Bitcoin’s price DAA had dropped to -54.89%. This decrease shows that market participants are engaging less with the coin. As such, the recent uptrend might be weak, as this is a sell signal.
截至發稿,比特幣價格DAA已跌至-54.89%。這種下降表明市場參與者對代幣的參與減少。因此,近期的上升趨勢可能較弱,因為這是一個賣出訊號。
Moreover, the coin’s performance has had an impact on holders’ profitability. On September 16, 79.92% of Bitcoin holders were in the money. But according to the Historical In/Out of Money (HIOM), which compares addresses making a profit at different price ranges, 91.97% are now in the money.
此外,代幣的表現對持有者的獲利能力產生了影響。 9月16日,79.92%的比特幣持有者都在錢裡。但根據歷史資金流入/流出 (HIOM)(比較在不同價格範圍內獲利的地址)的數據,現在 91.97% 的資金處於資金狀態。
Historically, when the ratio has reached such levels, some holders take profits, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin’s price. For example, something similar happened in July when the holders in profits were about 93%.
從歷史上看,當該比率達到這樣的水平時,一些持有者會獲利了結,導致比特幣價格下跌。例如,7月就發生了類似的情況,當時的利潤持有者約為93%。
A few days later, it dropped to 78%. Another scenario occurred on August 25 when the percentage was 88.35%, and the decline in Bitcoin price later led to 76.23%. Therefore, if history rhymes with the current condition, BTC could be set for a short-term drawdown.
幾天后,它下降到78%。另一種情況發生在8月25日,當時的比例為88.35%,隨後比特幣價格的下跌導致了76.23%。因此,如果歷史與當前情況相符,比特幣可能會出現短期下跌。
BTC Price Prediction: $60,000 Coming
BTC價格預測:60,000美元即將到來
While the price is expected to produce a positive return, the daily chart shows that Bitcoin’s attempt to reach $69,000 has encountered resistance, and the bears are trying to overthrow the bullish dominance.
雖然價格預計將產生正回報,但日線圖顯示,比特幣試圖達到 69,000 美元的目標遇到了阻力,空頭正試圖推翻多頭的主導地位。
If the price drops below $65,000, the $65,838 region will be a major resistance zone. However, buyers will likely try to defend BTC from going below support at $63,093. The chart below shows that this potential defense could fail.
如果價格跌破 65,000 美元,65,838 美元區域將是主要阻力區。然而,買家可能會試圖阻止 BTC 跌破 63,093 美元的支撐位。下圖顯示這種潛在的防禦可能會失敗。
Bitcoin’s price could decrease to $60,348 within a few days. On the other hand, a close above $65,838 will tilt the trend in the bulls’ favor. In that scenario, Bitcoin might jump to $68,236.
比特幣的價格可能會在幾天內跌至 60,348 美元。另一方面,收盤價高於 65,838 美元將使趨勢向多頭傾斜。在這種情況下,比特幣可能會躍升至 68,236 美元。
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