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比特币 (BTC) 在进入月度收盘时正迎来有记录以来最好的 9 月份表现,尽管略有下滑,但仍上涨 9% 左右。
Bitcoin (BTC) price action saw a slight sell-off into the Sept. 29 weekly close as support in the mid-$64,000s came in for a retest.
比特币 (BTC) 价格走势在 9 月 29 日周收盘时出现小幅抛售,因重新测试 64,000 美元中期的支撑位。
After rallying to hit new 2024 highs of $65,640 on Sept. 26, BTC/USD lost momentum at key resistance levels, which ultimately sparked the sell-off.
BTC/美元在 9 月 26 日反弹至 2024 年新高 65,640 美元后,在关键阻力位失去动力,最终引发抛售。
However, support held strong at $64,198 on Bitstamp before a modest recovery saw the pair begin to circle the $64,400 mark once again.
然而,Bitstamp 的支撑位为 64,198 美元,随后小幅回升,该货币对开始再次突破 64,400 美元大关。
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC/美元 1 小时图。来源:TradingView
With the monthly close now in sight, popular trader CrypNuevo, who predicted the comedown, was among those looking for a fresh long BTC position going forward.
随着月度收盘在即,预测价格下跌的热门交易员 CrypNuevo 是寻求未来新的 BTC 多头头寸的人士之一。
“We could see some volatility related to the monthly close,” he acknowledged in a dedicated thread on X alongside a print of the 4-hour chart.
“我们可能会看到一些与月度收盘价相关的波动,”他在 X 上的一条专门帖子中承认,并附上了 4 小时图表。
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. CrypNuevo/XCrypNuevo noted liquidity on exchange order books potentially favoring a trip toward $67,000 to come.
BTC/USDT 4 小时图。 CrypNuevo/XCrypNuevo 指出,交易订单簿的流动性可能有利于未来达到 67,000 美元。
“Losing support will take us to the downside liquidations,” he added.
“失去支持将使我们陷入下行清算,”他补充道。
BTC liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CrypNuevo/XAn optimistic Matthew Hyland meanwhile suggested that even a deeper BTC price correction would not mean the end of Bitcoin’s comeback on longer timeframes.
BTC 清算热图(币安)。资料来源:CrypNuevo/X 与此同时,乐观的 Matthew Hyland 表示,即使比特币价格出现更大幅度的调整,也不意味着比特币在更长的时间范围内卷土重来的结束。
“If Bitcoin closes the weekly above $65k we will have established a higher-high and higher-low for the first time in 6+ months and established a trend change,” he told X followers.
“如果比特币每周收于 6.5 万美元以上,我们将在 6 个多月以来首次建立更高的高点和更高的低点,并建立趋势变化,”他告诉 X 关注者。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/XMarkets eye Powell, US unemployment data
BTC/美元 1 周图表。资料来源:Matthew Hyland/XMarkets 关注鲍威尔、美国失业数据
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kicks off the macroeconomic week with a speaking appearance on Sept. 30.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 于 9 月 30 日发表讲话,拉开了宏观经济周的序幕。
Attending the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell will be keenly watched for signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move.
出席全国商业经济协会会议的鲍威尔将受到密切关注,以获取有关美联储下一步利率走势的信号。
After a surprise 0.5% cut this month, markets are eyeing a repeat performance at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7. The likelihood of this can change significantly, however, depending on Powell’s tone and macro data trends.
在本月意外降息 0.5% 后,市场期待在 11 月 7 日举行的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 下一次会议上再次表现。不过,这种情况的可能性可能会发生重大变化,具体取决于鲍威尔的语气和宏观数据趋势。
This week, unemployment figures take center stage, these already known as a Bitcoin price volatility catalyst in 2024.
本周,失业数据成为焦点,这些数据被认为是 2024 年比特币价格波动的催化剂。
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter considered the chances of the Fed being “behind the curve” in lowering rates.
交易资源《Kobeissi Letter》评论称,考虑了美联储在降息方面“落后”的可能性。
“Falling rates initially did not work to prop up the economy as it takes 6 to 24 months for the effects to be felt,” it noted on X.
“利率下降最初并没有起到支撑经济的作用,因为需要 6 到 24 个月才能感受到影响,”它在 X 上指出。
Kobeissi, however, is among those arguing that even the initial 0.5% decrease was going too far.
然而,Kobeissi 等人认为,即使最初的 0.5% 下降也太过分了。
According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, another 0.5% cut is in the lead for November at 52.2%.
然而,根据 CME 集团 FedWatch 工具的最新估计,11 月份再降息 0.5%,达到 52.2%。
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME GroupElsewhere, China embarking on sweeping economic stimulus measures is a topic firmly on risk-asset traders’ radar.
美联储目标利率概率。资料来源:芝商所 在其他地方,中国采取全面的经济刺激措施是风险资产交易者密切关注的话题。
“China just posted 5 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999,” Kobeissi said on the topic.
“中国刚刚连续五个季度出现通货紧缩,这是自 1999 年以来最长的连续通货紧缩,”科比西在谈到这个话题时说道。
Not such a “Rektember” after all?
到底不是这样的“Rektember”?
While flagging slightly into the monthly close, Bitcoin is still looking at its best September performance on record.
尽管比特币在月度收盘时略有下滑,但仍有望创下有记录以来最好的 9 月份表现。
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the striking contrast between 2024 and a typical September for BTC/USD.
来自监测资源 CoinGlass 的数据显示 2024 年与 9 月份 BTC/USD 的典型情况形成鲜明对比。
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOver the past ten years, Bitcoin on average has tended to end the month down 3.6%, while at present, bulls are looking at around 9% gains.
比特币/美元月度回报(屏幕截图)。资料来源:CoinGlass 在过去十年中,比特币月末平均下跌 3.6%,而目前多头预计涨幅约为 9%。
Moving forward, there are even more exciting times lying in wait for bulls: October, known in crypto circles as “Uptober” thanks to its typically impressive market performance, is almost here.
展望未来,还有更多激动人心的时刻等待着多头:十月即将到来,在加密货币圈中因其通常令人印象深刻的市场表现而被称为“Uptober”。
CoinGlass reveals a tough challenge for BTC/USD next month — average October upside is nearly 23%.
CoinGlass 揭示了 BTC/USD 下个月面临的严峻挑战——10 月份平均上涨幅度接近 23%。
From current levels, this would mean a new all-time high — something that commentators nonetheless entertain as a distinct possibility.
从目前的水平来看,这将意味着一个新的历史高点——尽管如此,评论员仍然认为这是一种明显的可能性。
“Altcoins are ready to do a 3-5x run, while Bitcoin is likely to break the all-time high coming quarter, following Gold,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe forecast in one of his latest X posts.
加密货币交易员、分析师和企业家 Michaël van de Poppe 在他最新的 X 帖子中预测:“山寨币已经准备好上涨 3-5 倍,而比特币可能会在黄金之后打破下个季度的历史新高。”
Since 2013, there have only been two “red” October months, these seeing maximum losses of just under 13%.
自 2013 年以来,只有两个 10 月份出现“红色”月份,最大跌幅略低于 13%。
Coinbase bounces back
Coinbase 反弹
A key element of BTC price action since March’s all-time high has been a preciptious drop in retail investor participation.
自 3 月份创下历史新高以来,比特币价格走势的一个关键因素是散户投资者参与度的急剧下降。
Interest among mainstream consumers fell significantly as Bitcoin and crypto retraced in the half year that followed.
随着比特币和加密货币在接下来的半年里回落,主流消费者的兴趣大幅下降。
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