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Cryptocurrency News Articles
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Heads Into the End of an Uncharacteristically Bullish “Rektember” Up Around 9% as Anticipation of Further BTC Price Gains Builds
Sep 30, 2024 at 05:12 pm
Bitcoin (BTC) is looking at its best September performance on record as it heads into the monthly close, still up around 9% despite flagging slightly.
Bitcoin (BTC) price action saw a slight sell-off into the Sept. 29 weekly close as support in the mid-$64,000s came in for a retest.
After rallying to hit new 2024 highs of $65,640 on Sept. 26, BTC/USD lost momentum at key resistance levels, which ultimately sparked the sell-off.
However, support held strong at $64,198 on Bitstamp before a modest recovery saw the pair begin to circle the $64,400 mark once again.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
With the monthly close now in sight, popular trader CrypNuevo, who predicted the comedown, was among those looking for a fresh long BTC position going forward.
“We could see some volatility related to the monthly close,” he acknowledged in a dedicated thread on X alongside a print of the 4-hour chart.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. CrypNuevo/XCrypNuevo noted liquidity on exchange order books potentially favoring a trip toward $67,000 to come.
“Losing support will take us to the downside liquidations,” he added.
BTC liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CrypNuevo/XAn optimistic Matthew Hyland meanwhile suggested that even a deeper BTC price correction would not mean the end of Bitcoin’s comeback on longer timeframes.
“If Bitcoin closes the weekly above $65k we will have established a higher-high and higher-low for the first time in 6+ months and established a trend change,” he told X followers.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/XMarkets eye Powell, US unemployment data
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kicks off the macroeconomic week with a speaking appearance on Sept. 30.
Attending the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell will be keenly watched for signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move.
After a surprise 0.5% cut this month, markets are eyeing a repeat performance at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7. The likelihood of this can change significantly, however, depending on Powell’s tone and macro data trends.
This week, unemployment figures take center stage, these already known as a Bitcoin price volatility catalyst in 2024.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter considered the chances of the Fed being “behind the curve” in lowering rates.
“Falling rates initially did not work to prop up the economy as it takes 6 to 24 months for the effects to be felt,” it noted on X.
Kobeissi, however, is among those arguing that even the initial 0.5% decrease was going too far.
According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, another 0.5% cut is in the lead for November at 52.2%.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME GroupElsewhere, China embarking on sweeping economic stimulus measures is a topic firmly on risk-asset traders’ radar.
“China just posted 5 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999,” Kobeissi said on the topic.
Not such a “Rektember” after all?
While flagging slightly into the monthly close, Bitcoin is still looking at its best September performance on record.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the striking contrast between 2024 and a typical September for BTC/USD.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOver the past ten years, Bitcoin on average has tended to end the month down 3.6%, while at present, bulls are looking at around 9% gains.
Moving forward, there are even more exciting times lying in wait for bulls: October, known in crypto circles as “Uptober” thanks to its typically impressive market performance, is almost here.
CoinGlass reveals a tough challenge for BTC/USD next month — average October upside is nearly 23%.
From current levels, this would mean a new all-time high — something that commentators nonetheless entertain as a distinct possibility.
“Altcoins are ready to do a 3-5x run, while Bitcoin is likely to break the all-time high coming quarter, following Gold,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe forecast in one of his latest X posts.
Since 2013, there have only been two “red” October months, these seeing maximum losses of just under 13%.
Coinbase bounces back
A key element of BTC price action since March’s all-time high has been a preciptious drop in retail investor participation.
Interest among mainstream consumers fell significantly as Bitcoin and crypto retraced in the half year that followed.
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