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比特幣 (BTC) 在進入月度收盤時正迎來有史以來最好的 9 月份表現,儘管略有下滑,但仍上漲 9% 左右。
Bitcoin (BTC) price action saw a slight sell-off into the Sept. 29 weekly close as support in the mid-$64,000s came in for a retest.
比特幣 (BTC) 價格走勢在 9 月 29 日週收盤時出現小幅拋售,因重新測試 64,000 美元中期的支撐位。
After rallying to hit new 2024 highs of $65,640 on Sept. 26, BTC/USD lost momentum at key resistance levels, which ultimately sparked the sell-off.
BTC/美元在 9 月 26 日反彈至 2024 年新高 65,640 美元後,在關鍵阻力位失去動力,最終引發拋售。
However, support held strong at $64,198 on Bitstamp before a modest recovery saw the pair begin to circle the $64,400 mark once again.
然而,Bitstamp 的支撐位為 64,198 美元,隨後小幅回升,該貨幣對開始再次突破 64,400 美元大關。
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC/美元 1 小時圖。來源:TradingView
With the monthly close now in sight, popular trader CrypNuevo, who predicted the comedown, was among those looking for a fresh long BTC position going forward.
隨著月度收盤在即,預測價格下跌的熱門交易員 CrypNuevo 是尋求未來新的 BTC 多頭部位的人士之一。
“We could see some volatility related to the monthly close,” he acknowledged in a dedicated thread on X alongside a print of the 4-hour chart.
「我們可能會看到一些與月度收盤價相關的波動,」他在 X 上的一條專門帖子中承認,並附上了 4 小時圖表。
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. CrypNuevo/XCrypNuevo noted liquidity on exchange order books potentially favoring a trip toward $67,000 to come.
BTC/USDT 4 小時圖。 CrypNuevo/XCrypNuevo 指出,交易訂單簿的流動性可能有利於未來達到 67,000 美元。
“Losing support will take us to the downside liquidations,” he added.
「失去支持將使我們陷入下行清算,」他補充道。
BTC liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CrypNuevo/XAn optimistic Matthew Hyland meanwhile suggested that even a deeper BTC price correction would not mean the end of Bitcoin’s comeback on longer timeframes.
BTC 清算熱圖(幣安)。來源:CrypNuevo/X 同時,樂觀的 Matthew Hyland 表示,即使比特幣價格出現更大幅度的調整,也不代表比特幣在更長的時間範圍內捲土重來的結束。
“If Bitcoin closes the weekly above $65k we will have established a higher-high and higher-low for the first time in 6+ months and established a trend change,” he told X followers.
「如果比特幣每週收在 6.5 萬美元以上,我們將在 6 個多月以來首次建立更高的高點和更高的低點,並建立趨勢變化,」他告訴 X 追隨者。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/XMarkets eye Powell, US unemployment data
BTC/美元 1 週圖表。資料來源:Matthew Hyland/XMarkets 關注鮑威爾、美國失業數據
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kicks off the macroeconomic week with a speaking appearance on Sept. 30.
聯準會主席鮑威爾 (Jerome Powell) 於 9 月 30 日發表講話,拉開了宏觀經濟週的序幕。
Attending the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell will be keenly watched for signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move.
出席全國商業經濟協會會議的鮑威爾將受到密切關注,以獲取有關聯準會下一步利率走勢的訊號。
After a surprise 0.5% cut this month, markets are eyeing a repeat performance at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7. The likelihood of this can change significantly, however, depending on Powell’s tone and macro data trends.
在本月意外降息0.5% 後,市場期待在11 月7 日舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC) 下一次會議上再次表現。的語氣和宏觀數據趨勢。
This week, unemployment figures take center stage, these already known as a Bitcoin price volatility catalyst in 2024.
本週,失業數據成為焦點,這些數據被認為是 2024 年比特幣價格波動的催化劑。
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter considered the chances of the Fed being “behind the curve” in lowering rates.
交易資源《Kobeissi Letter》評論稱,考慮了聯準會在降息方面「落後」的可能性。
“Falling rates initially did not work to prop up the economy as it takes 6 to 24 months for the effects to be felt,” it noted on X.
「利率下降最初並沒有起到支撐經濟的作用,因為需要 6 到 24 個月才能感受到影響,」它在 X 上指出。
Kobeissi, however, is among those arguing that even the initial 0.5% decrease was going too far.
然而,Kobeissi 等人認為,即使最初的 0.5% 下降也太過分了。
According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, another 0.5% cut is in the lead for November at 52.2%.
然而,根據 CME 集團 FedWatch 工具的最新估計,11 月再降息 0.5%,達到 52.2%。
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME GroupElsewhere, China embarking on sweeping economic stimulus measures is a topic firmly on risk-asset traders’ radar.
聯準會目標利率機率。資料來源:芝商所 在其他地方,中國採取全面的經濟刺激措施是風險資產交易者密切關注的議題。
“China just posted 5 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999,” Kobeissi said on the topic.
「中國剛剛連續五個季度出現通貨緊縮,這是自 1999 年以來最長的連續通貨緊縮,」科比西在談到這個話題時說道。
Not such a “Rektember” after all?
到底不是這樣的「Rektember」?
While flagging slightly into the monthly close, Bitcoin is still looking at its best September performance on record.
儘管比特幣在月度收盤時略有下滑,但仍有望創下有史以來最好的 9 月表現。
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the striking contrast between 2024 and a typical September for BTC/USD.
監測資源 CoinGlass 的數據顯示 2024 年與 9 月 BTC/USD 的典型情況形成鮮明對比。
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOver the past ten years, Bitcoin on average has tended to end the month down 3.6%, while at present, bulls are looking at around 9% gains.
比特幣/美元月度回報(螢幕截圖)。資料來源:CoinGlass 在過去十年中,比特幣月末平均下跌 3.6%,而目前多頭預計漲幅約為 9%。
Moving forward, there are even more exciting times lying in wait for bulls: October, known in crypto circles as “Uptober” thanks to its typically impressive market performance, is almost here.
展望未來,還有更多激動人心的時刻等待著多頭:十月即將到來,在加密貨幣圈中因其通常令人印象深刻的市場表現而被稱為“Uptober”。
CoinGlass reveals a tough challenge for BTC/USD next month — average October upside is nearly 23%.
CoinGlass 揭示了 BTC/USD 下個月面臨的嚴峻挑戰——10 月平均上漲幅度接近 23%。
From current levels, this would mean a new all-time high — something that commentators nonetheless entertain as a distinct possibility.
從目前的水平來看,這將意味著一個新的歷史高點——儘管如此,評論員仍然認為這是一個明顯的可能性。
“Altcoins are ready to do a 3-5x run, while Bitcoin is likely to break the all-time high coming quarter, following Gold,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe forecast in one of his latest X posts.
加密貨幣交易員、分析師和企業家Michaël van de Poppe 在他最新的X 帖子中預測:「山寨幣已經準備好上漲3-5 倍,而比特幣可能會在黃金之後打破下個季度的歷史新高。
Since 2013, there have only been two “red” October months, these seeing maximum losses of just under 13%.
自 2013 年以來,只有兩個 10 月出現「紅色」月份,最大跌幅略低於 13%。
Coinbase bounces back
Coinbase 反彈
A key element of BTC price action since March’s all-time high has been a preciptious drop in retail investor participation.
自 3 月創下歷史新高以來,比特幣價格走勢的關鍵因素是散戶參與度的急劇下降。
Interest among mainstream consumers fell significantly as Bitcoin and crypto retraced in the half year that followed.
隨著比特幣和加密貨幣在接下來的半年回落,主流消費者的興趣大幅下降。
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