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比特币本周开盘就跌至 63,000 美元,日内趋势并未受到美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔声明的影响
Bitcoin ( BTC ) dropped below the $64,000 level on Monday as markets reacted to United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that upcoming interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the recent 0.5% decrease.
比特币 (BTC) 周一跌破 64,000 美元水平,原因是市场对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 的声明做出反应,即即将到来的降息幅度不会像最近降息 0.5% 那样激进。
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $63,049 as the sell-off continued from Sunday’s high of $65,634, dropping approximately 4% to hit the lowest level since Sept. 25.
随着周日高点 65,634 美元的抛售继续,比特币跌至盘中低点 63,049 美元,下跌约 4%,触及 9 月 25 日以来的最低水平。
After a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville, Powell said that upcoming interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the recent 0.5% decrease.
鲍威尔在纳什维尔全国商业经济协会发表演讲后表示,即将到来的降息幅度不会像最近降息0.5%那么激进。
The Fed chair explained that if the economy moves as expected, markets should expect two more rate cuts in 2024, but they would be 0.25% increments.
美联储主席解释说,如果经济按预期发展,市场预计 2024 年将再降息两次,但降幅为 0.25%。
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course. The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting,” Powell added.
“展望未来,如果经济大体按照预期发展,政策将随着时间的推移转向更加中性的立场。但我们没有走任何预设路线。风险是双向的,我们将继续在一次又一次的会议上做出决定。”鲍威尔补充道。
Powell’s remarks come less than two weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first since March 2020.
鲍威尔发表此番言论前不到两周,联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 降息 50 个基点,这是自 2020 年 3 月以来的首次降息。
Futures market forecasts are indicating that the Fed is more likely to move cautiously during its next meeting in November and approve a quarter-point reduction.
期货市场预测表明,美联储更有可能在 11 月份的下次会议上采取谨慎行动,并批准降息 25 个基点。
However, traders see the December move as more aggressive. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a 0.5% rate cut at the Dec. 18 FOMC meeting at around 48%.
然而,交易员认为 12 月份的走势更为激进。 CME 集团 FedWatch 工具的数据显示,12 月 18 日 FOMC 会议降息 0.5% 的可能性约为 48%。
Target rate possibilities for the Nov. 7 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
11 月 7 日 FOMC 会议的目标利率可能性。资料来源:芝商所
Prior to the remarks, markets expected the FOMC to reduce interest rates by a further 0.5% at its next meeting.
在此言论之前,市场预计FOMC将在下次会议上进一步降息0.5%。
Bitcoin traders still expect a bullish Q4
比特币交易员仍预计第四季度看涨
Powell’s remarks come after major cryptocurrencies notched a third consecutive week of gains. Bitcoin had a rough start to what is historically the most bearish month for BTC, dropping 11% between Sept. 1 and Sept. 6.
鲍威尔发表此番言论之前,主要加密货币连续第三周上涨。比特币在历史上最悲观的一个月中开局不利,9 月 1 日至 9 月 6 日期间下跌了 11%。
However, the price rebounded after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points after its FOMC meeting on Sept. 18.
然而,在美联储9月18日FOMC会议后降息50个基点后,价格出现反弹。
Data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s price on track to finish Q3 0.6% higher and 7% higher in September.
CoinGlass 的数据显示,比特币价格有望在第三季度结束时上涨 0.6%,在 9 月份上涨 7%。
Bitcoin quarterly and monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
比特币季度和月度回报。来源:CoinGlass
“100% of election years had a green October, November and December,” said Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, in a Sept. 30 post.
WeRate 联合创始人昆腾·弗朗索瓦 (Quinten François) 在 9 月 30 日的帖子中表示:“100% 的选举年都有绿色的 10 月、11 月和 12 月。”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险,读者在做出决定时应自行研究。
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