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比特幣本週開盤跌至 63,000 美元,日間趨勢並未受到聯準會主席鮑威爾聲明的影響
Bitcoin ( BTC ) dropped below the $64,000 level on Monday as markets reacted to United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that upcoming interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the recent 0.5% decrease.
比特幣 (BTC) 週一跌破 64,000 美元水平,原因是市場對聯準會主席鮑威爾 (Jerome Powell) 的聲明做出反應,即將到來的降息幅度不會像最近降息 0.5% 那樣激進。
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $63,049 as the sell-off continued from Sunday’s high of $65,634, dropping approximately 4% to hit the lowest level since Sept. 25.
隨著週日高點 65,634 美元的拋售繼續,比特幣跌至盤中低點 63,049 美元,下跌約 4%,觸及 9 月 25 日以來的最低水平。
After a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville, Powell said that upcoming interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the recent 0.5% decrease.
鮑威爾在納許維爾全國商業經濟協會發表演說後表示,即將到來的降息幅度不會像最近降息0.5%那麼激進。
The Fed chair explained that if the economy moves as expected, markets should expect two more rate cuts in 2024, but they would be 0.25% increments.
聯準會主席解釋說,如果經濟按預期發展,市場預計 2024 年將再降息兩次,但降幅為 0.25%。
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course. The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting,” Powell added.
「展望未來,如果經濟大體按照預期發展,政策將隨著時間的推移轉向更中性的立場。但我們沒有走任何預設路線。風險是雙向的,我們將繼續在一次又一次的會議上做出決定。
Powell’s remarks come less than two weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first since March 2020.
鮑威爾發表此番言論前不到兩週,聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 降息 50 個基點,這是自 2020 年 3 月以來的首次降息。
Futures market forecasts are indicating that the Fed is more likely to move cautiously during its next meeting in November and approve a quarter-point reduction.
期貨市場預測表明,聯準會更有可能在 11 月的下次會議上採取謹慎行動,並批准降息 25 個基點。
However, traders see the December move as more aggressive. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a 0.5% rate cut at the Dec. 18 FOMC meeting at around 48%.
然而,交易員認為 12 月的走勢更為激進。 CME 集團 FedWatch 工具的數據顯示,12 月 18 日 FOMC 會議降息 0.5% 的可能性約為 48%。
Target rate possibilities for the Nov. 7 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
11 月 7 日 FOMC 會議的目標利率可能性。資料來源:芝商所
Prior to the remarks, markets expected the FOMC to reduce interest rates by a further 0.5% at its next meeting.
在此言論之前,市場預計FOMC將在下次會議上進一步降息0.5%。
Bitcoin traders still expect a bullish Q4
比特幣交易員仍預期第四季看漲
Powell’s remarks come after major cryptocurrencies notched a third consecutive week of gains. Bitcoin had a rough start to what is historically the most bearish month for BTC, dropping 11% between Sept. 1 and Sept. 6.
在鮑威爾發表此番言論之前,主要加密貨幣連續第三週上漲。比特幣在歷史上最悲觀的一個月中開局不利,9 月 1 日至 9 月 6 日期間下跌了 11%。
However, the price rebounded after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points after its FOMC meeting on Sept. 18.
然而,在聯準會9月18日FOMC會議後降息50個基點後,價格反彈。
Data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s price on track to finish Q3 0.6% higher and 7% higher in September.
CoinGlass 的數據顯示,比特幣價格預計在第三季結束時上漲 0.6%,在 9 月上漲 7%。
Bitcoin quarterly and monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
比特幣季度和月度回報。來源:CoinGlass
“100% of election years had a green October, November and December,” said Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, in a Sept. 30 post.
WeRate 聯合創始人昆騰·弗朗索瓦 (Quinten François) 在 9 月 30 日的帖子中表示:“100% 的選舉年都有綠色的 10 月、11 月和 12 月。”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險,讀者在做決定時應自行研究。
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