比特币（BTC）价格崩溃，因为PCE数据释放了对持续通货膨胀的担忧

3月28日，比特币的价格明显撤退，在美国（美国）（美国）发布了PCE（个人消费支出）价格指数的新数据后，损失了3％以上。

The day of March 28 saw a clear retreat for the price of Bitcoin, which lost over 3% following the release of new data on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index in the United States (USA).

3月28日，比特币的价格明显撤退，在美国（美国）（美国）发布了PCE（个人消费支出）价格指数的新数据后，损失了3％以上。

The renewed fear of persistent inflation worries investors and puts an important technical threshold at risk: the support at 84,000 dollars.

人们对持续通货膨胀的恐惧令人担忧，这使投资者感到担忧，并将重要的技术门槛置于风险上：支持为84,000美元。

At the center of attention is now the market’s ability to stay above this level. A breakdown could trigger further selling and a return to the lows of recent weeks.

现在，关注的中心是市场保持高于此水平的能力。细分可能会触发进一步的销售，并重返最近几周的低点。

Analysts warn: the scenario becomes complicated for the price of Bitcoin following the USA data

分析师警告：遵循美国数据的比特币价格变得复杂

At the opening of Wall Street, Bitcoin reached a local high of 85,500 dollars, before quickly reversing course and sliding down to 84,500 dollars on Bitstamp, the lowest level in almost a week.

在华尔街开业时，比特币达到了85,500美元的当地高点，然后迅速逆转路线并在Bitstamp上滑到84,500美元，这是将近一周的最低水平。

The February PCE data, eagerly awaited by operators, were in line with expectations on a monthly basis (+0.3%) and annual basis (+2.5%).

2月份的PCE数据急切地受到运营商的期待，每月与期望（+0.3％）和年计（+2.5％）保持一致。

However, the core figure, which excludes the more volatile components such as food and energy, recorded a +0.3%, or one-tenth of a point above the consensus.

但是，排除诸如食品和能源之类的挥发性成分的核心图是 +0.3％，即高于共识的十分之一。

This detail, although subtle, has reinforced fears of a resurgence in core inflation, complicating the outlook for an easing of U.S. monetary policy.

这个细节虽然微妙，但却加剧了人们对核心通货膨胀率复兴的担忧，这使人们对消除美国货币政策的看法变得复杂。

According to the financial bulletin The Kobeissi Letter, the dynamics of the PCE “suggest a return towards a more aggressive inflationary trajectory.”

根据金融公告《 Kobeissi的信》，PCE的动态“暗示了回归更具侵略性的通货膨胀轨迹”。

The team notes that even the January data has been revised upwards, marking a scenario in which stagflation (a term indicating a phase with stagnant growth and high inflation) becomes a possible in 2025.

该团队指出，即使是一月份的数据也已经上升，这标志着一种场景，其中停滞（表明阶段表明阶段的增长阶段和通货膨胀率高）在2025年成为可能。

“The next data, related to March, will be particularly decisive, in a context made even more uncertain by the geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trade war,”

“与三月有关的下一个数据将在地缘政治紧张局势和持续的贸易战变得更加不确定的情况下特别决定性。”

it adds.

它添加。

The drop in BTC prices occurred in a context of renewed volatility. The trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on X that the day was shaping up to be “highly unstable,” given the relevance of the upcoming macro data.

BTC价格下跌发生在新的波动性的情况下。商人Daan加密货币交易对X表示，鉴于即将到来的宏观数据的相关性，这一天正塑造为“高度不稳定”。

Among the more cautious experts, Michaël van de Poppe has warned of a possible technical deterioration. Although he maintains a moderately positive view, he highlights that the bull trend is becoming “visibly more fragile.”

在更加谨慎的专家中，MichaëlVande Poppe警告说可能存在技术恶化。尽管他保持了中等积极的看法，但他强调说，公牛趋势正变得“明显脆弱”。

According to the expert, a decisive break below 84,000 dollars could pave the way for new tests towards the range between 78,000 and 80,000 dollars.

根据专家的说法，低于84,000美元的决定性休息可能为新测试铺平道路，以达到78,000至80,000美元之间的范围。

The cooling of the market could be physiological

市场的冷却可能是生理的

A voice outside the chorus is that of the analyst TheKingfisher, who acknowledges the bear pressure but does not associate it with a structural reversal signal.

合唱之外的声音是分析师Thekingfisher的声音，他承认熊压力，但并未将其与结构性逆转信号相关联。

According to his analysis, we are in the midst of a typical intermediate cooling, useful for readjusting the market after the recent speculative runs.

根据他的分析，我们正处于典型的中间冷却中，在最近的投机运行之后可重新调整市场。

“We are not yet in a confirmed bear phase. The picture is closer to a temporary stabilization, typical of spring markets,”

“我们尚未处于确认的熊阶段。图片更接近暂时的稳定，典型的春季市场。”

the analyst states.

分析师指出。

He further hypothesizes the return of the seasonal saying “sell in May and go away,” which suggests a possible pause in the bull pressures close to the summer months.

他进一步假设季节性的回归说“五月出售并消失”，这表明在夏季几个月接近的公牛压力下可能会停下来。

All eyes are now focused on the psychological and technical support of 84,000 dollars. Maintaining it represents an essential condition to contain the risk of a broader decline.

现在，所有人的目光都集中在84,000美元的心理和技术支持上。保持其代表了包含更广泛下降的风险的基本条件。

A potential breakdown could pave the way for a rapid test of the area between 78,000 and 80,000 dollars, levels that have not been touched for several weeks. On the contrary, a rebound beyond 85,000 dollars could help restore confidence in the short term.

潜在的崩溃可能为快速测试78,000至80,000美元之间的快速测试铺平了道路，这些水平已经在几个星期内尚未触及。相反，超过85,000美元的反弹可以帮助恢复短期的信心。

Inflation, Fed, and Bitcoin: a delicate triangle

通货膨胀，喂养和比特币：一个微妙的三角形

Persistent inflation and the cautious tone of the Federal Reserve remain the main exogenous factors influencing crypto.

持续的通货膨胀和美联储的谨慎语调仍然是影响加密的主要外在因素。

An increase in the core component, like the one seen in this latest report, strengthens the scenario of a possible postponement of the interest rate cuts expected for the second half of the year.

核心组成部分的增加，就像这份最新报告中看到的那样，增强了可能推迟今年下半年预期降低利率的情况。

This, in turn, supports the dollar and acts as a brake on riskier assets, including Bitcoin, which have benefited from low rates and abundant liquidity in recent years.

反过来，这又支持美元，并在包括比特币在内的风险较高的资产上进行刹车，近年来从低利率和丰富的流动性中受益。

The behavior of BTC will therefore continue to be driven by the dualism between macro narrative and technical dynamics. In this fragile balance, the breaking (or maintaining) of key thresholds could outline the market mood for the weeks to come.

因此，BTC的行为将继续由宏观叙事和技术动态之间的二元论驱动。在这种脆弱的平衡中，关键阈值的破坏（或维持）可以概述未来几周的市场情绪。