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尽管比特币 (BTC) 最近飙升至 68,000 美元以上,但一位著名的加密货币分析师警告称,这种加密货币可能尚未准备好起飞。
Prominent crypto analyst Justin Bennett is urging caution as Bitcoin’s recent surge to above $68,000 might not yet indicate a sustainable takeoff.
著名加密货币分析师贾斯汀·贝内特 (Justin Bennett) 敦促谨慎行事,因为比特币最近飙升至 68,000 美元以上,可能尚未表明可持续的起飞。
Bennett, a closely followed figure in the crypto space with 133,400 followers on X, highlighted some mixed signals in Bitcoin’s recent price movements, suggesting that the surge appears to be largely driven by speculators. He also pointed out the weak spot market trading volumes, suggesting that the recent price action might not yet indicate a sustainable uptrend.
Bennett 是加密货币领域备受关注的人物,在 X 上拥有 133,400 名关注者,他强调了比特币近期价格走势中的一些复杂信号,表明比特币的飙升似乎主要是由投机者推动的。他还指出现货市场交易量疲弱,这表明近期的价格走势可能尚未表明可持续的上涨趋势。
People are celebrating a Bitcoin breakout on a low volume Friday. The day & week aren't over yet. Much of this rally is being driven by perpetual futures, & open interest (OI) has returned to its July peak. I'm not making any definitive calls yet b/c the data is conflicting.
人们正在庆祝周五成交量较低的比特币突破。这一天和一周还没有结束。此次反弹很大程度上是由永续期货推动的,未平仓合约 (OI) 已恢复至 7 月份的峰值。我还没有做出任何明确的决定,因为数据是冲突的。
— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 18, 2024
— 贾斯汀·贝内特 (@JustinBennettFX) 2024 年 10 月 18 日
Bitcoin’s breakout from a seven-month narrow trading range, especially in low-volume weekend trading, is a phenomenon to watch closely. Bennett’s concerns can be summed up in his statement:
比特币突破七个月窄幅交易区间,尤其是在周末交易量较低的情况下,是一个值得密切关注的现象。贝内特的担忧可以在他的声明中总结:
“People are celebrating a Bitcoin breakout on a low-volume Friday. But neither the day nor the week is over yet. Much of this rally is being driven by perpetual futures, and open interest (OI) has returned to its July peak. I’m not making any definitive calls yet because the data is conflicting. But as a trader, there’s no harm in being cautious at this point.”
“人们正在庆祝周五成交量较低的比特币突破。但这一天或一周都还没有结束。此次上涨很大程度上是由永续期货推动的,未平仓合约 (OI) 已恢复至 7 月份的峰值。我还没有做出任何明确的决定,因为数据是冲突的。但作为交易者,此时保持谨慎总没有坏处。”
Open Interest (OI) tracks the total number of outstanding derivative contracts for a given asset. Sudden spikes in OI can lead to deep corrections, as overly leveraged traders may be forced to liquidate their positions. According to Bennett, Bitcoin bulls must defend the $68,200 level to avoid an impending correction.
未平仓合约 (OI) 跟踪给定资产的未平仓衍生品合约总数。持仓量突然飙升可能会导致深度调整,因为杠杆过高的交易者可能被迫清算其头寸。 Bennett 表示,比特币多头必须守住 68,200 美元的水平,以避免即将到来的调整。
What Should Investors Do?
投资者应该做什么?
Bennett noted that last week saw some curious movements in the crypto market, with whales (large Bitcoin holders) showing surprising activity compared to smaller traders, and spot market activity remaining dull. He suggests that much of the recent rally could be attributed to futures trading, which is usually not a sign of a healthy market.
贝内特指出,上周加密市场出现了一些奇怪的走势,与小型交易者相比,鲸鱼(大型比特币持有者)表现出令人惊讶的活动,而现货市场活动仍然平淡。他认为,最近的反弹很大程度上可以归因于期货交易,这通常不是市场健康的迹象。
The crypto strategist stressed that Bitcoin’s response at the $68,200 level is more significant than the conflicting data. If the price fails to hold above this level, a deeper correction could follow. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $68,241, and if it fails to hold at this price point, Bennett anticipates a strong short-term correction.
这位加密货币策略师强调,比特币在 68,200 美元水平上的反应比相互矛盾的数据更重要。如果价格未能保持在该水平之上,则可能会出现更深层次的调整。目前,比特币的交易价格为 68,241 美元,如果未能保持在这个价格点,贝内特预计将出现强劲的短期调整。
Tether (USDT) Dominance: A Bullish Sign for BTC
Tether (USDT) 占据主导地位:BTC 看涨信号
Bennett also highlighted a potentially bullish signal for Bitcoin – the recent decline in Tether’s (USDT) market dominance, which has fallen below two key support levels.
Bennett 还强调了比特币的一个潜在看涨信号——Tether (USDT) 市场主导地位最近下降,已跌破两个关键支撑位。
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) tracks the percentage of the total crypto market cap that is represented by Tether. Drops in USDT.D are usually seen as a bullish sign for Bitcoin and altcoins, as it indicates that traders are using their stablecoins to buy crypto assets.
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) 追踪以 Tether 为代表的加密货币总市值的百分比。 USDT.D 的下跌通常被视为比特币和山寨币的看涨信号,因为这表明交易者正在使用稳定币购买加密资产。
According to Bennett, if USDT dominance continues to decline, Bitcoin could rally by as much as 20%. His analysis shows that this trend signals that investors are moving out of stablecoins and into Bitcoin and other crypto assets, which could lead to a strong short-term rally.
Bennett 表示,如果 USDT 的主导地位继续下降,比特币可能会上涨 20%。他的分析表明,这一趋势表明投资者正在从稳定币转向比特币和其他加密资产,这可能会导致短期强劲反弹。
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